One week up, one week down in the NFL playoffs. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Divisional Round DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Divisional Round
Wild Card Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— Rob Norton (@norton0723) January 12, 2021
Looking back at Wildcard Week, it was a solid week This week 52.1% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way tied at a 75% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear at a 16.7% success rate. For me personally, it was basically a break-even week. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the picks and get back into profit in the Divisional Round DraftKings plays.
- Wildcard Week – $164 → $134 ($30 LOSS)
- Playoff Total – $164 → $134 ($30 LOSS)
- Regular Season Total – $6,194 → $4,730 ($1,464 LOSS)
- Grand Total – $6,358 → $4,864 ($1,494 LOSS)
Divisional Round DraftKings Plays
Josh Allen (BUF) – $7,400 v BAL
Josh Allen was the QB1 in fantasy football this season. Nobody averaged more than his 27.7 DraftKings points per game in 2020. He’s also been on fire lately as well as he’s scored at least 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, including last week in the Wild Card round. This week he faces the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have been good on defense and have allowed the eighth fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. Last week they also held Ryan Tannehill in check. Allen is a different animal though. The Buffalo Bills are a team that can’t run the ball very well outside of Allen himself so he should see another 40+ dropbacks in this one. He should be able to chip in on the ground too and is always a threat to score with his legs too. The Bills have the fourth-highest implied team total as well and this game has the closest spread on the slate which should help it turn into a back-and-forth affair. With Allen checking in as only the third most expensive quarterback on the slate, he looks like the best value of them all.
Josh Allen in the red zone = 💰 pic.twitter.com/PvcWX0Ch1X
— PFF (@PFF) January 13, 2021
Aaron Jones (GB) – $6,800 v LAR
Let’s start off by saying this is the cheapest Aaron Jones has been all season. This would be understandable if Jones had been struggling recently but in his last game, he saw five targets and 11 carries on his way to 18.5 DraftKings points. Somehow his price still went down. It seems like the DraftKings algorithm has been a bit off lately as the soften the prices for the playoffs to entice those that haven’t played before. The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams isn’t a great one but not one to be scared of either. The Rams are better against the passing game and taking away wide receivers than they are against the run which should allow Jones to see more work, especially in terms of check downs.
Cam Akers (LAR) – $5,700 @ GB
Cam Akers was a must-play last week and he’s shaping up as the same this week. This is another case of a player being far too cheap. Akers saw 30 touches last week and converted them into 176 total yards and a score. He’s seen at least 15 carries in five straight games now and has seen at least 21 carries in four of those games. Akers is being used as a clear workhorse running back right now but his price is still as if he’s splitting work. The Green Bay Packers have been gashed in the running game this season. The Rams are underdogs which doesn’t help projected game script for Akers, however, he’s a threat in the passing game as well. Akers should be one of the first players into your lineups this weekend and looks like a must-play in cash games.
FEED CAM AKERS pic.twitter.com/Eok8iGjqwv
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 9, 2021
Tyreek Hill (KC) – $8,000 v CLE
Tyreek Hill just finished up his best campaign as a pro. He finished with 87 receptions, 1,276 receiving yards, and 17 receiving touchdowns. Hill also chipped in 123 rushing yards and two rushing scores. This all added up to 22.5 DraftKings points per game this season. There was only one game this season in which he didn’t score double-digit DraftKings points, so the consistency was there as well. Hill really turned it on after the bye week when the Kansas City Chiefs started throwing even more often. The matchup against the Cleveland Browns this week is a juicy one. The Browns allow the fourth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers. This game also has the highest O/U on the slate and the Chiefs with the highest implied team total. Hill is the most dynamic playmaker on the most dynamic offense in the NFL and in a great matchup so he should deliver this weekend.
Michael Thomas (NO) – $6,700 v TB
Here’s yet another case of a guy not being priced up when he should be. Michael Thomas looked back to his ways in his first game back last weekend. In these situations, last season, Thomas would have been priced at least $2,500 more. This season was one that was lost to injury but he’s fully healthy now. This game is being played in a dome and against a banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. The Buccaneers have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this season. This game has the second-highest O/U and the second-closest spread which should allow the game to turn into a high-scoring shootout. The New Orleans Saints also have the second-highest implied team total as well. With Thomas’ target share and this game environment, Thomas looks like another that should be a must-play in cash games.
Touchdown Michael Thomas. Unleash the slime cannons! pic.twitter.com/S8TbOUZ4KT
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) January 10, 2021
Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,800 v CLE
Did you really expect there to be anyone else in this spot? Travis Kelce is a tight end by technicality only. He’s really a wide receiver playing the tight end position because of his size. He holds easily the biggest advantage at any position in all of fantasy football. Like his teammate, Tyreek Hill, Kelce only had one game all season where he didn’t score double-digit DraftKings points. He’s also tied to the most dynamic and explosive offense in the NFL. As mentioned before, this game has the highest O/U on the slate and the Chiefs have the highest implied team total. Kelce is currently riding a four-game streak of at least 20 DraftKings points and has scored at least 20 in seven of his last eight games. The Browns have been terrible at covering tight ends this year as well so Kelce should be able to have himself a game this weekend.
Travis Kelce: PFF's Highest-Graded TE of 2020 🥇 🏆 pic.twitter.com/cVX5rCwmfD
— PFF (@PFF) January 7, 2021
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favorited teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Josh Allen
- RB – Cam Akers
- RB – Aaron Jones
- WR – Michael Thomas
- WR – Cole Beasley
- WR – Allen Lazard
- TE – Travis Kelce
- Flex – Devin Singletary
- DST – Cleveland Browns
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Divisional Round DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for the Conference Championship slates. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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