Playoffs?! You want to talk about playoffs?! One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Wild Card DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Wild Card Weekend
Week 17 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— Rob Norton (@norton0723) January 6, 2021
Looking back at Week 17, it was better again. This week 63.3% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups led the way tied at an 83.3% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver and running back groups brought up the rear tied at a 50% success rate. For me personally, it was a nice bounce back. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the picks and get back into profit in the Wild Card DraftKings plays.
- Week 17 – $299 → $245 ($54 LOSS)
- Playoff Total – $0 → $0
- Regular Season Total – $6,194 → $4,730 ($1,464 LOSS)
- Grand Total – $6,194 → $4,730 ($1,464 LOSS)
Wild Card DraftKings Plays
Lamar Jackson (BAL) – $7,800 @ TEN
Don’t look now but Lamar Jackson has been looking like the MVP version of himself lately. Over the last five games, Jackson has scored at least 22.3 DraftKings points in all five games, including more than 30 DraftKings points in two of them. In that span, he also has rushed for at least 80 yards in four of those games. That’s a massive floor he’s bringing with his legs, much like he did in 2019. This week he gets to take on the Tennessee Titans and their awful defense. The Titans might have the worst defense of any team in the playoffs. Their offense is also fast-paced and high-powered leading to plenty of shootouts. That should be the case again in this one as it has the highest O/U of any game on the weekend.
Josh Allen (BUF) – $7,500 v IND
Josh Allen had a truly incredible season finishing as the QB1 overall in fantasy this year. The Buffalo Bills are somewhat like the Titans in that they play at a fast pace, score a lot of points, but their defense has allowed a good amount of points as well. This is the perfect recipe for fantasy success. This could be the case this weekend against the Indianapolis Colts. This game has the second-highest O/U this weekend and the Colts have been a pass funnel defense. The Buffalo Bills also can’t run very well and with the Colts allowing the seventh-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year, this one sets up beautifully for Allen.
The Bills can’t run the ball +
The Colts have allowed by far the least rushing yards in the league the past three weeks (52.7 ypg) +
The Colts have also allowed the 5th-most passing yards in that same time span (301.3 ypg) +
No weather impacts in Buffalo =
Josh Allen 🚀
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) January 7, 2021
Others to Consider: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – $6,600 v BAL, Russell Wilson (SEA) – $6,700 v LAR
Derrick Henry (TEN) – $9,200 v BAL
Big dogs gotta eat and this big dog has been feasting lately. Derrick Henry rushed for more than 2,000 yards this season including 250 just last week. His lowest rushing total in the last month is 98 yards and has had at least 100 rushing yards in six of his last eight games. In that span, he’s scored at least 39 DraftKings points three times. Just remarkable play from Henry. While the Baltimore Ravens are a team that has a chance to slow him down, he’s just too big and fast and gets too much volume to truly bust. As mentioned, this game has the highest O/U and should be a shootout. Henry should be heavily involved in the point-scoring.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) – $7,900 @ BUF
Speaking of guys that are on incredible runs, Jonathan Taylor also rushed for more than 250 yards last week. In that game, he was able to put up 41.4 DraftKings points. In his last six games, he’s rushed for at least 74 yards in every game. Taylor has also scored at least 15.4 DraftKings points in all six as well. The Colts have finally handed him the keys to the car and he’s certainly rewarded them. This week he is facing a Bills defense that is much easier to run on than pass on. The Colts know that the best way to beat the Bills is to run on them. Not only is that the strength of the Colts offense and the weakness of the Bills defense, but it will also help them limit the time that Josh Allen has the ball. If all goes according to plan for the Colts, Taylor will touch the ball 20+ times. The main concern with playing Taylor is if they fall behind big early and they limit his snaps in favor of Nyheim Hines.
You wanna talk about good company?
Colts rookies with 1,000 rush yards & 10 rush TD:
🔹Jonathan Taylor pic.twitter.com/6zWEecmZgm
— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) January 3, 2021
Cam Akers (LAR) – $5,100 @ SEA
The price of Cam Akers is interesting. He’s seen at least 20 carries in three of his last four games and at least 15 carries in all four. He was priced $1,000 more just last week and saw 87.5% of the running back carries in his first game back. For some reason, his price dropped big time. This is a situation to take advantage of. The Seattle Seahawks aren’t a matchup to fear. Akers is likely to see another 15+ carries and involvement in the passing game as well. He’s the ninth-most expensive running back and should likely see more volume than at least a few guys ahead of him. Akers looks like a great salary-saving option this weekend.
Others to Consider: Alvin Kamara (NO) – $8,500 v CHI, David Montgomery (CHI) – $6,900 @ NO, J.D. McKissic (WAS) – $4,900 v TB
Stefon Diggs (BUF) – $7,700 v IND
Simply put, Stefon Diggs is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He finished with more PPR points than any wide receiver except Davante Adams. Diggs led the league in targets (166), receptions (127), and receiving yards (1,535). The chemistry with Josh Allen was instant and the duo had an incredible first year together. Diggs had at least six targets in all 16 games this season. He also scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game as well. Diggs was able to score at least 30 DraftKings points in three games and at least 20 DraftKings points in eight games this season. This week he gets to face the Colts. As mentioned, they are a pass funnel and Allen is likely to target Diggs early and often in this one.
Allen Robinson (CHI) – $6,600 @ NO
Allen Robinson is always one of the most underrated wide receivers every season. He quietly finished third in the NFL in targets (151), fourth in receptions (102), and eighth in receiving yards (1,250). He does it year in and year out with worse quarterback play than any of the other top wide receivers. Unfortunately, that quarterback situation isn’t changing this week against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are a good defense, but they are much easier to attack through the air than on the ground. Add in the fact the Chicago Bears are likely to be trailing and throwing more often. This game is also being played in a dome. All these things are plusses for Robinson who should see his usual nice target volume once again.
Best landing spot for Allen Robinson in free agency? 🗺️ 📍 pic.twitter.com/PX6fWGBlRJ
— PFF (@PFF) December 31, 2020
Corey Davis (TEN) – $4,800 v BAL
What does Corey Davis have to do to get his price up? He was the WR28 in PPR points per game this season ahead of guys like Robby Anderson and Cooper Kupp who have consistently been priced higher than him. He’s also been consistent as well scoring single-digit DraftKings points in only three of his games all year. He’s been a bust up until this year in his career and that stigma seems to be holding back his price. This week against the Ravens isn’t a great matchup but it should be a high-scoring game and Davis is a cheap way to get a piece of this game.
Others to Consider: Diontae Johnson (BAL) – $6,200 v CLE, A.J. Brown (TEN) – $7,100 v BAL, Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $6,300 v TB, Cam Sims (WAS) – $3,900 v TB, Josh Reynolds (LAR) – $3,600 @ SEA
Mark Andrews (BAL) – $5,200 @ TEN
Mark Andrews looks like he’s almost in a tier by himself this week with Travis Kelce on a bye this week. There’s only one other person even close to him in pricing but Andrews is in a much better situation overall. He is the only tight end playing this weekend that is the top target on his team. He’s playing in the game with the highest O/U. Andrews is also facing the worst defense of anyone as well. It all sets up for Andrews to be heavily involved in this one as the Ravens are going to need to score points to keep up with the Titans. If paying up at tight end, Andrews looks like the best option this weekend.
TE Air Yard Share
1) Mark Andrews: 28.0%
2) George Kittle: 26.2%
3) Darren Waller: 26.0%
4) Travis Kelce: 25.6%
5) Mike Gesicki: 25.4%#2020AdvancedStats pic.twitter.com/xd6RwNWxwP
— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) January 8, 2021
Cole Kmet (CHI) – $3,000 @ NO
It’s certainly ugly at tight end this week especially if paying down. When looking down in this range, Cole Kmet is the only tight end that has some guaranteed target volume. Over the last five weeks, he’s seen at least six targets in four of those games and at least seven targets in three of them. It hasn’t translated into big production but at this price, getting six targets makes him more than viable. As mentioned before, the Bears are playing in a dome and likely to be trailing and throwing more often in this one. This should help Kmet see the target volume that should make him a great bargain option this weekend.
Others to Consider: Logan Thomas (WAS) – $4,900 v TB, Jonnu Smith (TEN) – $3,200 v BAL
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Josh Allen
- RB – J.D. McKissic
- RB – Cam Akers
- WR – Stefon Diggs
- WR – Diontae Johnson
- WR – Corey Davis
- TE – Cole Kmet
- Flex – Alvin Kamara
- DST – Indianapolis Colts
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Wild Card DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for the Divisional Round slates. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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