Fittingly, the Chicago Bears push to make the playoffs will come down to their being able to slay to giant, the Green Bay Packers. After all, this season has been filled with ups and downs as the Bears have battled their way back from a slide of epic proportions. Why should they have to go about making the playoffs any other way?
A Fitting Ending to Chicago Bears Playoff Push
Long Road Back
The Bears were one of the hottest teams to start the season, going 5-1 over the first six weeks. Their next six? All losses as the Bears floundered with Nick Foles under center. It would take an injury to him and for Matt Nagy to relinquish play-calling duties for the offense to finally find it’s footing. Chicago is 18th in scoring this season at 23.7 points per game. But they’re second in scoring over their last three and are averaging 33 points per game since their bye.
Bill Lazor’s takeover as the play-caller has led to a more adaptive offense that fits the strengths of not only Mitchell Trubisky but the team as a whole. They’ve relied more heavily on David Montgomery, increasing his carries from around 14 per game to 18. It’s not quite workhorse-level usage, but the production has been. He’s gone from averaging 52.4 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry to 105.8 per game and 5.63 yards per rush. He’s also hit the century mark three times after not hitting it once over the first nine games.
Chicago hasn’t faced a murderer’s row of run defenses over this stretch. Their opponents have ranked an average of 24th in defensive rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. We’re left trying to weigh his recent success properly. The fact is they are sticking with the run and mixing it into the game plan in unpredictable ways. They’re also blocking it better and won’t see a step up in resistance in Week 17.
Four straight games with 30+ points? The @ChicagoBears are heating up… uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pKG10Xf27Q
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 28, 2020
Trubisky’s Future
This could easily be a section on Nagy and Ryan Pace and in some ways it is. Trubisky, barring some sort of miraculous individual postseason turnaround or Super Bowl win, is a goner. You can’t deny how much better the offense has looked with him instead of Foles. But, as we were reminded of Sunday, he still commits too many mental errors to be counted on going forward.
This seemed like a forgone conclusion when the Bears declined his fifth-year option. But the question naturally popped back up, as it has with Pace and Nagy, as they’ve gotten back into the playoff hunt. The question still remains for Pace and Nagy, who have shown growth in their problem areas. Trubisky has shown growth in some areas (footwork, decisive in reads) but his overall decision-making has always been his biggest detriment.
It almost cost the Bears early against Jacksonville but the Jaguars will to tank was just too strong. It was Trubisky’s second pick in as many weeks, but he’s thrown just those compared to seven scores over the last month. He’s also running with purpose. While not getting the same yards per rush, he is still picking up key chunks. But he too will be facing his biggest bugaboo in Week 17.
Been There, Done That
Trubisky returned to action against the Packers coming out of the Bears bye week. He completed just over 56 percent of his passes for 242 yards and three touchdowns. But he also threw two picks in that 41-25 loss that wasn’t nearly that close. The Bears scored 15 points in the fourth quarter which was ostensibly all garbage time.
In six career games against the Packers, Trubisky is completing just under 60 percent of his passes for 251.2 yards per game with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. The Bears are 1-5 in those games but to frame it as a Trubisky issue is unfair. Chicago has beaten Green Bay just two times since 2010 and Rodgers has lost to the Bears just five times.
Besides Trubisky and the Bears in 2018, it was Jay Cutler and the Bears in 2015 that got the only other victory against the Bears most hated rival in the last decade. So no, pinning this on Trubisky’s shoulders is a mistake. Hopefully, that realization sticks with the coaching staff and they continue to call games suited to Trubisky’s strengths.
The official Bears playoff clinching scenario for Week 17 from the NFL: pic.twitter.com/a8qm6kk7PY
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) December 28, 2020
Diminishing Returns
We’ve been lamenting the state of the Bears defense for weeks now. They’re allowing 25.2 points per game over their last five games, up from the 22.3 they’re allowing on the year. Chicago is also giving up 360-plus yards of offense per game since their bye; a number that skyrockets to 420 yards per in the three games they’ve played against divisional opponents.
The Packers come in ranked first in the NFL in scoring and third in yards. Green Bay racked up 41 points and 393 yards, including 182 on the ground, in the first meeting between these teams.. Both of those numbers might have been higher had the Bears not come out so limp. But the defense needs to get some stops if they plan on keeping this one competitive.
Green Bay had 27 points by half time back in Week 12. That’s the most allowed in the first half under Matt Nagy and the most allowed by the Bears since 2015. It goes to show the importance of the defense getting stops early. But it’s also a microcosm of just how Rodgers and the Packers have had the Bears number.
Fittingly, Bears Must Beat Pack for Playoffs
It was almost a decade ago, but this game conjures up memories of that fateful 2010 NFC Championship game. Chris Conte getting caught flat-footed as Randall Cobb streaks by for a touchdown is forever etched into the minds of many. This game isn’t the same stage, but for the Bears the stakes are the same. This is a playoff game.
The odds are certainly against Chicago given the recent history of this “rivalry”. But Green Bay is only playing for home-field advantage, given they have the division locked up. Playing at the same time as the New Orleans Saints (who are also vying for the top seed), they are likely to start their regular lineup. Perhaps, though, a (sizeable) lead by both the Bears and Saints will have them calling off the dogs in the second half. It’s unlikely but possible.
There’s only one way that theory gets tested, though. Chicago must Bear down for this victory.
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