Going into a divisional showdown on Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys have some question marks at the running back position. With the emergence of Tony Pollard coupled with Ezekiel Elliott’s season-long struggles, which back should lead Dallas against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16? The upcoming game is essentially a must win for Dallas to limp in to the playoffs. Despite Elliot’s tremendous career, Pollard is the back with the most potential in this contest. With Elliott’s recent struggles and Pollard checking all the boxes, one should ask the question: Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard?
Tony Pollard Should Get More Week 16 Reps
Tony Pollard’s Big Game
Last Sunday, Dallas featured a new starting running back against the San Francisco 49ers. Ailed with a calf injury, Elliott skipped the contest. Dallas knew Elliott might possibly miss the game, designating him as a game-time decision. With his track record, his absence caught everyone by surprise. Tony Pollard stepped into the next-man-up role with a big game against a capable defense. The 49ers are seventh in the NFL in run defense giving up 104.4 rush yards per game. The injury-riddled 49ers have proven to be a solid defense against the run all season, making Pollard’s big game all the more impressive. Pollard finished with 69 total rushing yards on 12 attempts, 5.75 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns. He also added six catches for 63 yards, totaling his scrimmage yards to 132. His production was highlighted by his explosive 40-yard rushing touchdown late in the game to seal the victory.
Elliott’s Recent Lack of Production
Elliott’s first two games featured a heavy workload, 22 carries each for 96 and 89 yards respectively, and good production. Poor game scripts left him outside the feature role in Weeks 3 and 4 before Dak Prescott‘s gruesome ankle injury. The Cowboys lead back has eclipsed the century mark only one time this season (Week 11: 103 yards on 21 carries), and the 80 yard mark once since Prescott’s injury. Spoiler alert: they were the same game.
Another troubling issue is Elliott’s lack of touchdowns. He hasn’t reached the end zone on the ground since Week 5 against the New York Giants. This touchdown deficiency is staggering considering his 38 red-zone attempts, 28 attempts inside the 10-yard line, and 19 attempts inside the 5-yard line.
Elliott Has Not Been a Top Five Running Back
Elliott has had a very impressive career posting rushing totals of 1,631, 1,434, and 1,357 yards (his three highest totals). Elliott threw an exclamation point on those seasons with rushing touchdown totals of 15, six, and 12, respectively. He has posted a career yards per attempt above 4.1 yards, until this season (3.9 yards). Elliott’s two lowest averages have been this season, and 2017 when he only played in 10 games due to suspension. Elliott finished inside the top five in rushing yards in 2016, 2018, 2019, and number 10 in 2017. The elite running back’s struggles this season are nothing, if not out of character.
Long story short: this has been his worst season by far, only rivaled by a season where Elliott was suspended and the entire team struggled to find a rhythm offensively.
Why is Elliott Struggling?
Injures, injures, and more injuries are likely the biggest contributor to Elliott’s recent struggles. The 25 year-old feature back has been without his MVP-esque quarterback and juggernaut of an offensive line most of the season. Periodically, this team has been left without Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, Zack Martin, and Cameron Erving. With two games left this season, against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, the struggling running back has posted 426 yards before contact (839 yards in 2018, and 678 in 2019) for an average of 1.9 rushing yards before contact per attempt (2.8 in 2018 and 2.3 in 2019). Elliot’s lack of rushing production is, in part, due to poor run blocking and lack of creativity to get him the ball in space.
Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard in Week 16?
So which running back should Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, Mike McCarthy, and Cowboy’s Nation want taking the bulk of the snaps in Week 16–and moving forward? With Tony Pollard looking elusive against the 49ers, and Elliot seeming to have lost a step, everyone invested in Dallas should be contemplating the next move. Does Dallas try to deal Elliott? Should the Cowboys chalk this season up to injuries and poor game scripts? Is this another season like 2017 where “Dem Boyz,” can expect another bounce back from Elliot? These are all legitimate questions one should ask while Dallas tries to resign their start quarterback, especially if Tony Pollard is a more affordable and viable option moving forward.
.@BaldyNFL doesn't see the burst from Ezekiel Elliott anymore https://t.co/6amoaUUY27
— 105.3 The FAN (@1053thefan) December 25, 2020
Week 16 Preview
Dallas is facing off against The Philadelphia Eagles, a bottom ten rushing defense who surrenders 125.6 yards per game on the ground. If Elliott is able to play, Dallas should expect more of the same frustration. Elliott rarely runs outside the tackles–the strength of this Philly run defense.
This revamped Eagles offense looks to take advantage of the Cowboys hapless secondary, forcing Dallas to stray away from the run. Cowboy’s fans should expect to see a similar game script Sunday: Elliott getting hit in the back field and at the line of scrimmage. If Jalen Hurts and company are able to get on the board early and often, look for Pollard to assume the primary running back duties outside the tackles and catching passes out of the backfield.
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