The Green Bay Packers (5-2) have revenge on their mind when the Packers travel to Levi’s Stadium to battle the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) on Thursday Night Football. The Packers last visit to San Francisco resulted in a 39-20 loss in the NFC Championship game back on January 19th. In that game, the Packers were gashed for 285 rushing yards and a mind-blowing 6.8 yards per carry. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 77 yards on just eight passing attempts, the fewest ever in an NFC Championship game.
Thursday Night Football Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Preview
Green Bay has lost two of their last three games, including a 28-22 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Their lack of any semblance of a run defense was exposed by Dalvin Cook‘s 163 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Cook added two receptions, 63 yards, and one receiving touchdown en route to the Week 8 overall RB1 performance.
Green Bay is hoping for the return of starting running back Aaron Jones, who missed the last two games with a calf injury. The Packers greatly need his pass-catching ability, as Davante Adams was the only receiver to catch more than one pass against Minnesota.
Jones is needed more than ever with both running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamaal Williams having been placed on the COVID-19 list. Green Bay has found recent success with Williams, who has 10 receptions, 152 rushing yards, and a touchdown in the past two games in Jones’ absence. If Jones cannot go, Green Bay will turn to Dexter Williams or Tyler Ervin. In that case, Williams may serve as the early down plodder, with Ervin excelling in the pass-catching role.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has continue to operate at high-efficiency, with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He threw three touchdowns passes against the Vikings, completing 66 percent of his passes. Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns in the past two games, but five have gone to wide receiver Davante Adams. Green Bay desperately needs a secondary receiving option against the 49ers, which could be fulfilled by the rumored return of Allen Lazard.
Per his IG story, Allen Lazard is on the Packers’ flight to California.
Lazard watched the Week 4 home game vs. Atlanta from his crib. I also didn’t see him in Tampa when I was there.
Lazard hasn’t played since Week 3 while on IR and can be activated tomorrow.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 5, 2020
While Green Bay’s run defense has struggled, their secondary is greatly bolstered by cornerback Jaire Alexander, who ranks first per PFF at the position including first overall in coverage grades (90.1).
San Francisco Preview
San Francisco limps into this game decimated by injuries. They have lost starting tight end George Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season with foot injuries. Their running back core is also limited, entering this game without starter Raheem Mostert (IR), Tevin Coleman (knee), and Jeff Wilson (high ankle sprain).
San Francisco will try to emulate last year’s NFC Championship script with Jerick McKinnon and rookie Ja’Mycal Hasty (32 career carries). Look for Hasty to operate primarily in the green zone, with McKinnon still battling “tired legs.”
San Francisco will turn to third-year quarterback Nick Mullens for the remainder of the season. In 13 career games (10 as a starter), Mullens has produced 240.7 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. However, Mullens will be without all of his top pass catchers and his starting left tackle.
The 49ers place Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the reserve/COVID-19 list as close contacts to Kendrick Bourne who tested positive for the coronavirus Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/wNQBJZQz7p
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 5, 2020
Besides Kittle, San Francisco will be without their three top wide receivers: Deebo Samuel (ankle), rookie Brandon Aiyuk, and veteran Kendrick Bourne.
The 49ers are hopeful that veteran tight end Jordan Reed can be active for Thursday night after battling ankle and knee issues. If Reed can play, he is a viable fantasy option at the shallow tight end position. Reed produced the overall TE5 performance in Week 5, with seven receptions, 50 receiving yards, and two touchdowns in a 31-13 win over the New York Jets. If Reed can not go, then San Francisco will turn to Ross Dwelley, who has just nine targets on the season.
The injuries have affected the San Francisco defense as well. San Francisco has been strong as a run defense unit, ranking sixth best in DVOA per FootballOutsiders. The 49ers pass rush has been without defensive end Nick Bosa (torn ACL) since the end of September, as well as top cornerback Richard Sherman since Week 1 (calf). They will rely on CB Jason Verrett, who is the third-highest rate cornerback per PFF, ranking sixth-best in coverage, to hopefully limit Davante Adams.
Thursday Night Football Fantasy Impact: Green Bay
With the litany of injuries and COVID quarantines, I am downgrading the fantasy expectations for almost all players.
RB Aaron Jones: Receiving value helps maintain low-end RB1 status, expect limited rushing production.
WR Davante Adams: Target monster regardless of defensive scheme; first among all wide receivers in PPR fantasy points per game (27.1).
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Feast or famine WR3 dart throw.
WR Allen Lazard: Would be a huge boost to Green Bay’s offense if he is activated.
TE Robert Tonyan: Packers third-most reliable receiving option; sneaky PPR TE6 performance last week.
TE Jace Sternberger: Could Packers start using more two tight end sets? Sternberger with three receptions in two of last three games.
Thursday Night Football Fantasy Impact: San Francisco
QB Nick Mullens: Was the QB29 against a poor Philadelphia Eagles secondary with three turnovers; can not be trusted even in two quarterback leagues.
RB Ja’Mycal Hasty: Versatile RB with high-end burst, will be important part of offense against porous Green Bay rush defense, but will he produce?
RB Jerick McKinnon: In a smash spot, even with tired legs, as one of the few reliable parts of the offensive attack; pass-catching extraordinaire faces Green Bay defense that has ceded the fifth-most receptions per game (6.4) to opposing running backs
WR: Brandon Aiyuk: Kyle Shanahan will need to scheme Aiyuk away from Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander, who ranks at PFF’s top overall cornerback.
WR: Kendrick Bourne: Needs to build off last week’s overall WR21 performance; Six of his 40 targets have come in the red zone.
TE: Jordan Reed: If healthy, a fantasy starter but use caution; Packers sixth-best against opposing tight ends.
TE: Ross Dwelley: Only a TE2 if Reed is ruled out.
ODDS
Green Bay -7: Line has jumped from Packers -4 since news of injuries. Per Action Network App, 80 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the money is on Green Bay. Betting against a Green Bay team with the best quarterback, wide receiver, and potentially running back is difficult. San Francisco is simply too injured to keep this game close.
Under 48.5: Green Bay and San Francisco are the two of the slowest pace teams in the NFL per FootballOutsiders. With all the injuries and COVID quarantined players,expect both teams to struggle to score. I grabbed the initial over/under 51, but would play it down to 48 below kickoff on Thursday.
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