Old habits not yet dead have Chicago Bears fans wondering if their team can exorcise its demons against the New Orleans Saints. The knee-jerk response, after watching the Los Angeles Rams embarrass them 24-10 on Monday Night Football, would be a simple “no”. But, as we have seen this season, the only thing simple about the Bears is their offensive gameplan week-to-week. If they don’t course-correct soon, they could use up the cushion they’ve built up.
Bears Need to Exorcise Demons
Same Old Story
Defense has been the calling card of Bears teams since their inception in 1920. Save for a few years under Marc Trestman (the last “offensive guru” to lead the team), it’s been death, taxes, and the Bears fielding a strong defense. It should be no surprise then that this year’s squad is sixth in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, while the offense ranks 26th. What a drag.
Matt Nagy (and his general manager Ryan Pace, for that matter) was brought in to modernize this team, specifically the offense. The offense ranked ninth in points in 2018 but plummeted to 29th in 2019 and 27th this season. Their best mark in terms of yardage was also 2018 when they ranked an unconvincing 21st. Be it scheme or personnel (it’s both), the Bears have been stuck as a one-sided team stuck in sports purgatory.
The lack of time Nick Foles had against the Rams was only overshadowed by his lack of mobility. It ended with talking heads joining fans in calling for Mitchell Trubisky. His mobility would have helped, for sure. But the results would likely have been the same. Foles has often forced passes much like his young teammate was wont to do and defenses have been able to guess right far too often. Foles is an issue but not the only one.
obvious fixes that the Bears can reasonably make by Sunday
1. Make Dwayne Harris punt returner
2. Replace all of Demetrius Harris' snaps with Cole Kmet
3. Throw 2x as much on first down
4. 2x as much play action
5. Load Rashaad Coward into a cannon and launch him out of Illinois— Jeremy Layton (@JeremyLayt0n) October 28, 2020
All Saints Day
Fans will remember the last meeting of these teams. Drew Brees was out with injury but Teddy Bridgewater successfully auditioned for his current gig by leading the Saints to a 36-25 victory at Soldier Field. He threw two touchdowns, no picks, and was sacked just once. With Brees under center this Sunday, it’s hard to see the outcome being much different.
Working in Chicago’s favor, New Orleans is expected to be without both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders for another week. Those are big losses but the Saints managed to beat the Carolina Panthers with just stud Alvin Kamara and undrafted rookie Marquez Callaway. Kamara strikes fear into defenses but Callaway coming out of nowhere like that is a testament to the Saints and a reminder that the Bears will not get off easily, with or without Thomas and Sanders.
This matchup is so similar to the Rams. Los Angeles is fifth offensively and 11th defensively in DVOA. New Orleans is seventh and 10th, respectively. A step below on offense but a step up defensively. Their defense hasn’t always lived up to that ranking though, allowing no fewer than 23 points in any game this season.
The Chicago Bears are the third-most penalized team in the NFL. The team has been called for 9 pass interference penalties.
Akiem Hicks is the most penalized player in the league. Kyle Fuller is the third most.
— Daniel Greenberg (@ChiSportUpdates) October 28, 2020
A Bear Market
Unfortunately for the Bears, they have only been able to crack the 20-point barrier four times, twice needing furious fourth-quarter comebacks to reach it. It’s not wise to expect dramatic, wholesale improvements in one week. But they can certainly clean up the mistakes, namely penalties, so they don’t shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly.
Protection is going to be an issue. New Orleans is a middle-of-the-pack pass-rushing team. But the stress their offense puts on opponents to keep pace is real. Also, the Bears are down two starters now after Cody Whitehair’s injury and can’t block anybody for long. Cameron Jordan must be licking his chops.
Defensively, the Bears aren’t set up to neutralize what the Saints will surely throw at them come Sunday. Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson have been one of the toughest cornerback duos in the league so the loss of Thomas and Sanders is as minimal as could be. New Orleans will just run their offense through Alvin Kamara and target Danny Trevathan in coverage. Brees has been holding the ball longer this season than in recent years. Perhaps this would be a good time for prized free agent Robert Quinn to live up to his billing as a top-end pass-rusher. He’s been close, a lot, but only has one sack and that came all the way back in Week 1.
Fun fact: The Bears are 18-9 all-time when they have a home game following a Monday night road game. Last year, they beat the Vikings at home after a MNF game in Washington.
They host the Saints on Sunday.
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) October 27, 2020
Exorcising Demons a Must for Bears
The things that got the Bears beat on Monday against the Rams have been prevalent all season. They had just been able to overcome them. Be it from a dropped pass a the goal line to furious late-game rallies, they just kept finding ways to win. That well ran dry against the Colts three weeks ago and again against the Rams. For a team that still has playoff aspirations, and at 5-2 rightfully so, they are running out of the time that Nagy has repeatedly said it would take to get Foles and the offense untracked.
With dates against the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings on tap the next two weeks and their first meeting of 2020 with the Green Bay Packers right out of the bye week. Chicago hasn’t beaten New Orleans since 2008. If, and that’s a very big if, the Bears are going to come away victorious this weekend, they will have to first clean up the blocking issues (which could be as simple as adjusting the play calling) and penalties to do so. They haven’t shown the ability to do that so far, despite their record.
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