Coming off of their first loss of the season, the Chicago Bears will get no reprieve when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. The odds are against them, and the Bucs are an advanced analytics darling. So how can they come away with an important victory? Is it even a real possibility? Or was what we saw on Sunday a precursor of what’s to come over the next few weeks?
Bucs Offer Little Reprieve for Scuffling Bears
Old Faces, New Places
This will be the Bears second time facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers under Matt Nagy. The last time they faced off, Nagy’s squad came away with a win. One that got people talking about their legitimacy as playoff contenders. It was also Mitchell Trubisky’s coming out party as he threw six touchdowns in what was easily the best game of his career.
There is no shortage of connections in this one, a theme of the 2020 Bears season. Bruce Arians, head coach of the Buccaneers, was once a candidate for the Bears gig but was passed over for Marc Trestman. No, seriously. The old coach is as salty as they come. It isn’t hard to fathom this being an extra special opportunity for him. Then there’s Bucs general manager Jason Licht. He was a candidate for the Bears general manager job that eventually went to Phil Emery. Double oops in 2012-13.
In the Foles
This time it will be Nick Foles, who supplanted Trubisky as the Bears starter last week, attempting to set the tone for the rest of the Bears season. The history between him and the Bucs starting quarterback, one Tom Brady, supersedes Trubisky’s breakout ended up being. Foles fell short of the lofty expectations placed upon him. He has another shot to alleviate the growing concerns of a tortured fan base. The only issue is, after facing the top-ranked defense in DVOA in the Colts, he gets the second-ranked Bucs. Tampa is also second in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate and 10th in Pass Rush Win Rate metrics.
Chicago is still eighth in Pass Block Win Rate and 12th in Run Block Win Rate. This a good test for them to prove last week was a fluke. They were manhandled by DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston so perhaps facing Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett isn’t an encouraging thought. Tampa is third in sacks and fourth in pressure rate. Their run-stopping prowess is most concerning for the Bears. A big factor in their early success was their dedication to David Mongomery and the run game. That was sorely missed last week. This will put that much more pressure on Foles to deliver in his second start.
Tompa Bay Brady
Then there’s Brady. Whereas the Bears offense is putting up some abysmal numbers outside of the fourth quarter and put up just 11 points with Foles, Brady’s 7.1 percent touchdown rate is his highest since 2010. He’s also throwing for his most yards per game (280.5) since 2017, the last time he was an All-Pro, and is fifth in touchdown passes and eighth in passing yards. He will be down several weapons, likely including Chris Godwin and perhaps even Leonard Fournette. The Bears have encountered this situation often this season with great success prior to last week.
Brady’s newfound propensity for having his interceptions returned for touchdowns works in the favor of a Bears team struggling to field a competent offense. He threw his second of the season against the Los Angeles Chargers, fourth in his last six games going back to last season. He’s going to have to give it to him because they might struggle to get to him as he’s enjoying his lowest sack rate since ‘09. Tampa has the third-best pressure rate allowed. This is the best defense the Bucs have faced so far. They can still be had. Not so easily through the air. Kyle Fuller and rookie Jaylon Johnson have held up well. But we have seen they miss Eddie Goldman several critical gashing runs. We could see Brady stake himself to a sizable lead and the Bucs ride Ronald Jones to victory in a short week.
No Reprieve for Bears on TNF
These teams once faced each other twice a year in the old NFC Central. They also had a five-year stretch from 2014 to 2018 where the met every year; a series the Bears won 3-2. That edge will have to overcome Brady’s perfect, 5-0 record against them. He has completed just over 70 percent of his passes in those games. He has also thrown 14 touchdowns to just four picks. From juking Brian Urlacher out of his socks to simple pitch and catch in 2018, Brady has been a handful for the team that was a finalist for his services this off-season. Fresh off the Bucs 17-point comeback, and the Bears ineptitude on offense in Week 4, it feels like more of the same could be on tap in primetime.
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
