The 2020 fantasy football season will be an interesting one. Covid has added another wrinkle to a game that can get more complex yearly. There’s more risk for players this season and in turn another variable to consider. Because of this increased risk, maximizing value will be as important as ever heading into your draft. Today we’re taking a look at fantasy running back ADP surprises. I am using Fantasy Football Calculator for the ADP numbers in this article. Be sure to check values before you draft as these numbers change daily.
Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Surprises
Current ADP Running Back 25
Should be Running Back 14
This one puzzles me. Todd Gurley isn’t valued as even a low-end RB2 in 12 team leagues? This draft position feels like there is no upside baked in. Playing behind an atrocious offensive line last season Gurley still put up 1,064 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Moving to Atlanta won’t hinder the running back’s opportunities. Devonta Freeman isn’t around anymore and the offense is still high powered. With Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley stretching the field, Freeman saw base fronts 48% of the time last season. There will be running lanes. Yes, Gurley has injury concerns but that’s already figured into his price. Looking strictly at talent and opportunity, the former Georgia Bulldog is a top 5 fantasy RB. He comes in as a high end RB2 because of risk.
Current ADP Running Back 15
Should be Running Back 20
Giving Conner a pass on the 2019 season feels like the right move. That said, he’s being valued at the highs of his 2018 season. A season that saw the Steelers with a good offensive line, a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, and Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster dominating downfield. Two years later the line is a little older, Big Ben is coming off elbow surgery, AB is long gone and JuJu is coming off a letdown of a season. Yes, Diontae Johnson should help but he’s not Antonio Brown. Conner also dominated carries in 2018. When active, he saw 87% of the Steelers carries. Given his injury concerns the last two seasons, I question that workload moving forward. Going at 3.01 currently, I’d feel more going WR at that point.
Current ADP Running Back 35
Should be Running Back 26
Jordan Howard is simply a productive back. Since he was drafted by the Bears in 2016, he’s third in the NFL in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns. He’s going to dominate early-down work and goal line carries for the Dolphins this season. While he won’t get many receptions, Howard has scored at least 6 touchdowns in every season of his career. When he got dinged up in week 10 of 2019, he was RB20. Yes, Matt Breida will get his share of the work but he struggles to stay on the field. Consider him a solid flex play in 2020.
Current ADP Running Back 58
Should be Running Back 45
Boston Scott’s ADP is interesting. He was productive when given the opportunity late in 2019, scoring three TD’s in week 17. While everyone expects Miles Sanders to dominate the touches in 2020, Scott will have a role. Philadelphia decided not to bring in a veteran backup, opening the door for Scott to see 8-10 touches a game. His upside is obviously capped as long as Sanders is healthy but Boston Scott should have flex value in 2020.
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