James Conner and Joe Mixon are both coming into their third NFL seasons. Both of them also play in the AFC North, Conner for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Mixon for the Cincinnati Bengals. Both are also ranked back-to-back in many fantasy football rankings. The two are almost locks for top-ten finishes, but one of them has to outperform the other. Overall, Conner is the player in the best position to get fantasy teams the most bang for their buck.
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Fantasy Football: Draft James Conner Over Joe Mixon
The Lone Bright Spot
Last season, by the end of the year, most of the Bengals offense was full of backups. Tyler Eifert only appeared in four games before being put on injured reserve. His backup, Tyler Kroft, only survived eight games. The third Tyler on the team, Tyler Boyd, missed the final two games of the year with an injury. Quarterback Andy Dalton went down in week 11, and A.J. Green missed the final four games of 2018.
Mixon missed two games but ended up basically being the last man standing by the end of the year. Despite a depleted passing game, and opposing teams knowing that stopping Mixon was their best shot at taking the Bengals out of games, Mixon piled up 1,464 total yards and nine touchdowns. Mixon only had three games all of last season with less than 80 total yards and put up a healthy 4.9 yards-per-carry.
Was also ninth in the league in yards after contact, seeing a whopping 45.7 percent of his total rushing yards after the first defender touches him. At first glance, it seems that he might be in for an increase in efficiency next season, with a healthy team around him.
However, he could be in for a lot of the same. Green is already hurt again, and with him getting up there in age, there is no guarantee he comes back and sets the league on fire. Teams just aren’t afraid of Dalton throwing the ball either.
Succeeding Despite All Odds
Conner was the feel-good story of 2018. Many thought he would keep the starting seat warm for Le’Veon Bell while he held out. Instead, he came in and became one of the top running backs in football. But the man who overcame Hodgkin’s Lymphoma to reach his goal of playing in the NFL continues to surprise when looking at some of his deep stats.
He places two slots down from Mixon at number 11 in yards after contact. Conner was also seventh in broken tackles with 25. But things get really interesting when looking at how often he faced stacked boxes (8+ men at the line of scrimmage). Most would probably guess that Mixon faced more stacked boxes than Conner. After all, Mixon was on one of the most depleted offenses in football, whereas Conner was on a team that boasted two of the best wide receivers in Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster.
Nope. Mixon worked against stacked boxes about 16 percent of the time. Still above the league average. Conner saw a lot more though. He went up against eight-man fronts on almost 28 percent of his carries. Yet, he still totaled 1,470 yards and 13 touchdowns.
2019 Outlook
Mixon and Conner are both going as late-first or early-second running backs. They are rated back to back from each other and looking at last season’s production, it is tough to really differentiate the two. They had about the same yards from scrimmage, with Mixon totaling more on the ground, and Conner getting more receiving production.
Conner gets the edge in fantasy due to having four more touchdowns. It is also worth noting that Conner missed one more game than Mixon, meaning his per-game average is a good three points ahead of Mixon’s.
The reason people might go Mixon is a lack of trust for Conner. After all, if Bell hadn’t held out, there is a chance Conner could still be sitting on the bench today. But, Conner is undoubtedly in a much better position to produce than Mixon.
Even though the Steelers lost one of their star wideouts, they still have Smith-Schuster and a few talented young receivers in James Washington and Donte Moncrief. They still have a Hall of Fame quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, throwing them the ball too.
The Bengals have a quarterback who is in danger of flaming out this season, two injury-prone players on offense, and a rookie head coach. Plus that offensive line still has a ton of question marks. The Steelers still boast one of the better lines in the game. Basically, don’t get cute. James Conner is the back to draft here if the two are the top options for fantasy players on the clock.
