Running backs, as a position, have some of the shortest careers in the NFL. It is known as a brutal position with a ton of injury risk. With an average career length of just over two and a half seasons, the lowest of any position, it makes sense that the elite players want to make the most of their career with their running back contracts. Not everyone can be Frank Gore and still play into their mid to late 30s.
Taking a Look at the Future of NFL Running Back Contracts
Case One: Le’Veon Bell
Some of the biggest news of the 2018 NFL season was Le’Veon Bell sitting out the entire season by not signing his franchise tag with the Pittsburgh Steelers, essentially walking away from $14.5 million guaranteed. Bell reportedly wanted a long-term deal with a record amount of guaranteed money, getting paid as both a top-tier running back and wide receiver. Bell ended up signing a four year, $52.5 million deal with New York Jets, with $25 million guaranteed and up to $61 million with incentives.
However, Bell was reportedly offered a five-year, $70 million deal from the Steelers, with $33 million guaranteed. Without getting too far into the contract details, the Steelers’ deal was apparently all front-loaded in the first two years of the deal. This means that the Steelers could have cut him before the 2020 season with little to no cap ramifications.
Bell sat out the entire 2018 season. There are questions about his potential effectiveness. Will he be in football shape? He’s 27, is he getting too old? Not only that, the emergence of James Conner has raised questions too. Was Bell only the product of a system? Note, this is not to take away from Conner, who was fantastic at Pittsburgh. The questions are there though. How effective will Bell be in 2019 for the Jets? On the bright side, he has a talented young quarterback in Sam Darnold and an offense that looks significantly better on paper in 2019 than it did in 2018.
Was Bell’s hold out effective? There have been many differing opinions on this, with most leaning toward no. People look at what he walked away from with the Steelers and question it. Beyond that, however, lies an even more telling factor.
Case Two: Todd Gurley
Todd Gurley has been, undoubtedly, one of the best running backs in NFL history over the past few seasons. However, after Week 12 in the 2018 season, Gurley experienced some issues with his right knee. In 2014, Gurley tore his right ACL. After an ACL injury, studies have shown that 8.2 percent of patients under 21 at the time of their initial ACL tear re-tore the same ACL. The same study showed that 14 percent of patients experienced non-ACL injuries in the same knee. Gurley was 20 when he has his ACL reconstructed. In March 2019, it was announced that Gurley had arthritis in his reconstructed knee.
Before the 2019 season. Gurley signed a record-breaking four year, $57.5 million deal, with $45 million total guaranteed. This is the largest contract for a running back in NFL history. At the time, it seemed worth it. Gurley was in his prime and well on his way to being one of the top three running backs in NFL history.
Future Contracts
The NFL is becoming a pass-first league. The way the trends are going, that’s only going to become more and more true. What does this mean for running backs and their contracts? Bell showed the world that, even as a terrific pass-catching running back, the market is limited. The NFL is trending outside the numbers rather than in the backfield.
This, combined with the injury risks demonstrated by Gurley, will likely lead to the decrease in contract value for one of football’s most brutal positions. The likelihood of seeing contracts the size of Bell and Gurley is slim, which does not bode well for the elite younger backs looking for their next running back contracts like Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley.
