Nostrathomas is attacking the NFL Week Eight picks after coming frustratingly close to a breakout Week Seven.
First, in London the Tennessee Titans made a second half charge to squeeze inside the -6.5 spread before losing 20-19 to the Los Angeles Chargers. Second, the Cincinnati Bengals offense failed miserably against the Kansas City Chiefs defense. That game fell three points short of the 58 total, costing Nostrathomas a second top pick. Third, Justin Tucker missed the first extra point of his career, keeping the Baltimore Ravens from a chance to beat the New Orleans Saints in overtime.
Nostrathomas NFL Week Eight Picks
Still, as they say, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and beer chugging contests. Nostrathomas finished Week Seven 2-2 with his top picks, 7-7 against the spread and a strong 10-3 straight up. For the 2018 season that puts Nostrathomas at 9-11-2 with top picks, 40-47-2 against the spread and 55-29-1 straight up.
All point spreads taken on Saturday morning from Vegasinsider.com.
NFL Week Eight Best Bets
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (1 PM ET; Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO)
The Chiefs have won six straight games in this series, including a 27-23 win Week Four in the Mile High City. The Denver Broncos snapped a four-game losing streak last week against the Arizona Cardinals in a 45-10 blowout but that accomplishment doesn’t generate the bragging rights it would have earned a couple of seasons ago.
Broncos quarterback Case Keenum was mediocre in that effort. Keenum only managed 161 yards through the air along with one touchdown, one interception and a passer rating of 85.6. Actually, Denver is finding out what the Minnesota Vikings learned last season. The clock had struck midnight for Keenum in the NFC Championship Game. Broncos General manager John Elway should have realized what he was signing when he saw the Vikings cut loose, without attempting to sign, the quarterback who had taken them to the brink of a Super Bowl.
Denver would have a chance to keep this game close if they had the backs to take advantage of the number 30 defense in the NFL against the rush. With starter Royce Freeman ruled out for this game with an ankle industry, they don’t.
This game is not going to be the slugfest it was the last time these two teams met. Because of the large spread and previous meeting between these two, big public money is coming in on Denver. Take the Chiefs to win and cover, especially now that the spread has dropped below double-digits.
Kansas City Chiefs 35 Denver Broncos 22
Washington Redskins, Pick ‘em vs New York Giants (1 PM ET; MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ)
This game has stubbornly stayed as “pick ‘em” despite over 80 percent of the public money coming in on the Washington Redskins. That the New York Giants are not at least +3 by now has Nostrathomas pulling out what little hair he has left. Are professional betters (sharps) pouring so much money into this game on the Giants side to keep this spread even? Why would they, even with this game being played at MetLife Stadium?
Yes, the Giants did keep their Monday Night Football game close last week but the Atlanta Falcons defense is proving to be one of the weakest in the league. New York still needed a garbage time touchdown to keep things close. The Giants have won the last five of six against Washington at home but this year’s team appears to be plunging into a free fall (free fallin’ for you Tom Petty fans). They are also playing this game on short rest.
Whatever the sportsbooks are trying to sell, Nostrathomas isn’t buying! The Redskins are seventh in the league against the run this year so Saquon Barkley won’t be picking up easy yards. They also have enough offense to keep this game well under control. Take Washington straight up and remember to say thank you for the freebie when you cash your ticket.
Washington Redskins 26 New York Giants 19
Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Oakland Raiders (4:05 PM ET; Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA)
The Oakland Raiders are coming off of their bye week but that doesn’t mean the team wasn’t busy. Derek Carr will go into battle Sunday afternoon without Amari Cooper. Gruden the Elder sent him packing to the Dallas Cowboys for their first-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. That doesn’t leave Oakland weaponless against Indianapolis. Seth Roberts will pick up the starts and snaps that Cooper vacated. However, it does leave the Raiders locker room deflating faster than a bag of New England Patriots footballs.
In the meantime for the Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck has gone two straight games without getting sacked. He is also one of the least sacked starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Luck has also thrown 15 touchdown passes over the past four weeks, four more than any other quarterback in the NFL.
Based on the statistics there’s very little Oakland’s defense will be able to do to stop Luck. They’re dead last in the league in net passing yards per attempt and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average a 106.6 passer rating against them. The Raiders defense also gives up 4.74 rushing yards per attempt and allows opponents to convert on 46 percent of third downs.
There’s quite a bit of money coming into Las Vegas on this game, most of it on the Colts. That’s why the spread has moved from “pick ‘em” at opening to the Colts favored by three. It wouldn’t be surprising to see another half-point move on this game to -3.5 before kickoff so don’t hesitate to get money down before then.
Indianapolis Colts 30 Oakland Raiders 17
NFL Week Eight Second Tier Games
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (9:30 AM ET; Wembley Stadium, London, England)
The majority of handicappers are looking at the three-game win streak the Jacksonville Jaguars have put together in London and are using that as the excuse for picking the “home” dogs. Nostrathomas says to give some thought to going against conventional wisdom here and consider laying the field goal and taking the Philadelphia Eagles.
Jacksonville’s key to victory last season was the team’s stifling defense, both against the run and pass. They rode to the AFC Championship Game on that defense, not on the arm of Blake Bortles. What that defense did wasn’t just locking down opponents. They also gave the Jaguars offense fields that were 50 yards shorter to score on.
Last year Jacksonville averaged 13.8 yards per point scored, that comes out to the Jaguars needing 96.6 yards of offense to score seven points. Through seven games in 2018, Jacksonville is averaging 21.4 yards per point, 149.8 yards per seven points, dead last in the league. Add that to them playing a solid Eagles defense and you can see it doesn’t matter how the Jaguars have performed in London in the past.
The Eagles are far from perfect on offense this year but they have a defense and Carson Wentz will easily be the better quarterback on the field. Take the “road” favorite to win and cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers +2.5 (1 PM ET; Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)
Baltimore gave the Saints all they could handle last week before falling 24-23. At the same time in Philadelphia, the Carolina Panthers were hanging 21 fourth-quarter points on the World Champion Eagles to pull out a 21-17 victory.
Nostrathomas despises the concept of trap games but has to admit we might be seeing one here and in the next game on the list. The Ravens are hosting their arch AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, next week with a chance to sweep the season series.
Meanwhile, Carolina comes into the game trailing New Orleans in the AFC South and needing a victory to keep pace. The Panthers are also 10-2 at home since 2012 against AFC opponents.
Under normal circumstances, bookmakers usually value being at home as a three-point advantage. This is a battle of two fairly evenly matched teams. Carolina is being seriously undervalued in this game. Take them to win and cover.
Carolina Panthers 23 Baltimore Ravens 20
Cleveland Browns +8 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1 PM ET; Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA)
This season, the Cleveland Browns are playing the part of the bad blind date of the NFL. Just when you think you’ve escaped them they show back up, fresh drink in hand to complain more about living in their mother’s basement. In seven weeks Cleveland has played four overtime games and kept two others within one score. The Chargers are the only team this season to escape a game with the Browns with their sanity intact.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to want to avenge the tie that Cleveland hung on them in Week 1. Still, there’s the Browns Velcro-like ability to keep games close and a Steelers showdown in Baltimore looming.
Pittsburgh hasn’t beaten the Browns by more than eight points since Week Eleven of 2016. Cleveland has also covered against the Steelers in their last four meetings while Pittsburgh is on a 1-7 run against the spread in their last eight games at home. Take the Steelers to win this game but Nostrathomas is betting the Browns keep things close.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Cleveland Browns 23
New York Jets vs Chicago Bears -8 (1 PM ET; Soldier Field, Chicago, IL)
The Chicago Bears “won” the AFC North last season, going 4-0 against the division, but are finding the AFC East a tougher go in 2018. Chicago lost to the Miami Dolphins in overtime two weeks ago and came within one yard of taking New England to overtime last week. Now they have to try and right the ship against the New York Jets.
The sharps laid heavy money on the Bears earlier in the week and the public has followed which has moved this spread from seven to eight. Normally Nostrathomas considers eight points a division leader spread but there are some signs that they can cover.
First, in Chicago’s last four games Mitch Trubisky has thrown 11 touchdown passes, a number surpassed only by Andrew Luck. Second, the Jets will be missing a lot of key players in this game. Running back Bilal Powell is now on injured reserve and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa has been declared out. In New York’s secondary, Trumaine Johnson is doubtful and Morris Claiborne is questionable.
With so many key players on the injured list for the Jets, the Bears should be able to win and cover this larger-than-normal spread.
Chicago Bears 32 New York Jets 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (1 PM ET; Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH)
The Bengals were shut down by a weak Kansas City defense last week which might be why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seeing this point spread tighten up after they opened as six-point underdogs. That makes the decision to take Cincinnati to win and cover a lot easier.
Jameis Winston has played three games this season, garbage time against the Bears and as a starter the last two. In that time he’s thrown six interceptions against five touchdowns and lost two fumbles.
The Bengals may be on a two-game losing streak but they lost to two first-place teams, the Steelers and Chiefs. Cincinnati still has enough firepower, even without Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard to win and cover this game at home.
Cincinnati Bengals 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
New England Patriots -14 vs Buffalo Bills (Monday Night Football; New Era Field, Buffalo, NY)
The Patriots won a slugfest two weeks ago against Kansas City. Last week the Bears took them down to the last second. Will the Buffalo Bills sneak up on them this week? Nostrathomas says the Bills are too weak to be considered a trap game against anybody.
The Patriots won and covered against the Bills twice last season. They have also covered five of their last six in Buffalo. This week should make it six of seven (and they win the Star Trek Voyager bonus if they can run that streak to Seven of Nine).
New England Patriots 36 Buffalo Bills 13
Too Close to Risk Your Money
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions -3 (1 PM ET; Ford Field, Detroit, MI)
The Seattle Seahawks have won four of their last five coming off their bye week but the Detroit Lions love playing in front of the home crowd at Ford Field. After their opening game fiasco against the Jets, the Lions have beaten the Patriots and Green Bay Packers there. Actually, all three Detroit wins this season are against teams that entered Week Eight over the .500 mark.
Seattle is still strong against the pass but they’ve given up 4.67 yards per carry on the ground. That plays into Detroit’s strength. The Lions have put together a surprisingly strong running game this season behind Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount.
In this game, Nostrathomas is going to take Detroit to win and cover.
Detroit Lions 27 Seattle Seahawks 23
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams -9 (4:25 PM ET; Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA)
In his 11 seasons as starting quarterback for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers has never faced a spread this large. However, the Los Angeles Rams field a high octane offense and can also play some mean defense.
This game opened with the Rams favored by -10.5. Early week sharps money and 80 percent of the public money coming in on Green Bay has pushed the spread down to its current -9.
If this game were going to be played on the currently semi-frozen tundra in Green Bay Nostrathomas would be tempted to take the Packers to win this game. However, it’s going to be played in Los Angeles, under the sun, on a clean track. With the spread dropped under double-digits Nostrathomas is taking the Rams to win and cover.
Los Angeles Rams 34 Green Bay Packers 24
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals +1 (4:25 PM ET; State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ)
If you’re unlucky enough to get this as your afternoon game, use the time take a nap so you’re well rested for the Saints tilt against the Vikings on Sunday Night Football.
The Arizona Cardinals have won seven straight against the San Francisco 49ers, including a 28-18 victory in Week 5 but as they say, throw the record books out the window when these two teams get together.
Both teams are 1-6. Arizona is 0-4 at home while the 49ers are 0-4 on the road. One difference going into this game is the Cardinals launched offensive coordinator Mike McCoy after last week’s embarrassment against the Broncos. Byron Leftwich was promoted from quarterbacks coach to take the reins. For Arizona that needs to mean running back David Johnson gets used more effectively. That’s reason enough to pick the Cardinals at home.
Arizona Cardinals 22 San Francisco 49ers 17
New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings Pick ‘em (Sunday Night Football; U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN)
Have a hearty Sunday evening dinner and switch this game on for dessert. This is the rematch of last year’s divisional round, “Miracle in Minnesota” game.
Drew Brees gets another shot at the Vikings formidable defensive front. A front with Everson Griffen back in the fold. Minnesota’s Latavius Murray will be pounding the ball on the ground against the top rushing defense in the NFL. Xavier Rhodes will see if he can slow down Michael Thomas while Marshon Lattimore shadows Adam Thielen.
This Sunday night battle won’t be as explosive as two weeks ago when New England outscored the Chiefs but it should be every bit as fun to watch.
As for the prediction, Nostrathomas has always followed the rule that with all things being equal, take the better quarterback, sit down Kirk Cousins.
New Orleans Saints 30 Minnesota Vikings 27
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