With five weeks passed in the NFL season, fantasy football owners have decided the value of players across the league. The level of value assigned to players will differ from owner to owner. Whether it is through disappointment or personal opinion, an under-appreciation for certain players is created. Fantasy owners looking to improve their teams for a mid-season playoff run can exploit the undervaluing of players for their own personal gain. With their value as low as ever, now is the time to target some of the biggest names in all of fantasy football.
Jordan Howard, Keenan Allen Highlight Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates Heading Into Week Six
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers receiver Keenan Allen‘s start to the 2018 season has not been what fantasy owners had expected. After sprinting through the finish line as the third-highest scoring receiver in 2017, Allen has come back down to earth. Through five weeks, Allen currently sits as the 24th-ranked receiver, falling way short of his second-round average draft position. Since having a solid outing in Week One, Allen has managed 48.9 points in his last four games. Meanwhile, fantasy owners have been hoping for the receiver who scored 40.2 in one game last season. This disappointment leads to a depreciation of players that have yet to reach their potential and could provide services to active buyers.
Instead of pointing out what Allen has not been, fantasy owners should point out what he has been – consistent. So far this season, Allen has scored 12.7 or more points in 80 percent of his games, including a 24.8-point outburst in Week One. Dating back to last season, Allen has scored 10 or more points in 17 of his last 21 games (81 percent). To be a consistent receiver, targets are needed and Allen is among the highest-targeted receivers in the league. Since the beginning of 2017, Allen ranks fifth in targets with a whopping 204 targets (9.7 per game). In 2018, Allen has continued his assault on the team target share by receiving 45 of 172 targets (26.1 percent). At this current pace, Allen is scheduled to see exactly 300 targets in his last two seasons.
To go beyond Allen, fantasy owners should point out the quality of the offense Allen is a part of. The Chargers have been among the best thus far in 2018. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Los Angeles gains the sixth-most yards per drive while also scoring the fifth-most points per drive. Quarterback Philip Rivers has tossed the 13th-most yards in the league on 8.6 yards per attempt for the second-most touchdowns with 13. While Allen has only handled one of those touchdown passes, the Chargers consistently score through the air. Since the beginning of 2017, Los Angeles has thrown 41 touchdowns to only 13 rushing touchdowns. Keenan Allen’s slow start has opened an opportunity for fantasy owners to trade for a guaranteed top-twelve receiver.
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
Heading into their bye week, the Chicago Bears dismantled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 48-10. A win of that size generally means positive game-script and more carries for the winning team’s running back. Unfortunately for Jordan Howard owners, Howard finished with 11 carries for 25 yards on the day. To make matters worse, fellow running back Tarik Cohen finished with 20 total touches for 174 yards and a touchdown. Now, heading into Week Six, Cohen has outscored Howard 50.8 to 44.1 in fantasy, leaving Howard owners with little optimism. This is the perfect time to buy low on Howard as his value may never be lower.
One can assume that Chicago chose to expose Tampa Bay’s 32nd-ranked pass defense, which featured Cohen’s skill as a pass-catcher. Once the game was decided, there was no reason to risk injury or overwork their star running back. Historically, Howard tends to begin seasons slow and finish them strong with a hefty workload. If we were to take the final eight fantasy-relevant games of Howard’s first two seasons (excluding Week 17), that 16-game stretch would produce 284 carries for 1,379 yards and 10 touchdowns. That total would have landed Howard as the 11th-highest scoring running back in 2017.
Through four games this season, Howard has managed a healthy 16 carries a game, but those have led to a career-low 3.2 yards per carry. In the first half of Howard’s first two seasons, Howard averaged less than four yards per carry. In the second half, Howard increased his yards per carry almost a full yard to 4.8. To aid Howard’s run for the rest of the season is the best offense the running back has been a part of in his short career. This season, the Bears are 10th in yards, eighth in points and fourth in plays per drive. Those totals are major improvements as Chicago was dead last in yards per drive and 30th in points per drive. Even then, Howard was still able to finish as RB14 on the season. Howard is a perfect buy-low candidate with top-15 potential for the second half of the season.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
In his first season with the Kansas City Chiefs, Sammy Watkins has thrived within his role on a talented and explosive offense. Despite being seen as the fourth option on the offense, Watkins has reached his career-high in fantasy consistency. Through five weeks, Watkins has scored 10 or more points in 80 percent of his games. Prior to this season, the career-high for the former first-round pick was 69.2 percent back in 2015 with the Buffalo Bills. Through five weeks, Watkins is currently on pace for a career-high in receptions and is catching targets at the best rate of his career.
Thus far, the change in scenery has been good to the former fourth-overall selection. In the four full games Watkins has played in this season, he has received 28 targets for 20 catches and 254 yards and one touchdown. Despite missing nearly the entire game in week four, Watkins still owns a 16.5 percent target share for the season. Also, in Watkins’ last three full games, he has caught more passes than Tyreek Hill (17 to 11) and has outscored him 51.4 points to 40.3. Watkins may not provide huge outputs in fantasy, but he has proven to be a consistent component in one of the best offenses in the league. Fantasy owners should buy low on Watkins before his value is recognized.
Michael Crabtree, Baltimore Ravens
Surprisingly, Baltimore Ravens receiver Michael Crabtree has seen his ESPN ownership drop down to 81 percent over the last few weeks. Whether Crabtree is available via the waiver wire or trade, he is a solid buy-low candidate. This season, the new Ravens receiver has scored at least 10.6 points in all but one game. Crabtree has also either scored a touchdown or surpassed 50 receiving yards in all but one game through five weeks.
In an offense that attempts a pass 64 percent of the time, Crabtree has a 20.4 percent target share. With an attempt coming his way every fifth pass, Crabtree ranks seventh in the entire league in targets with 46. If Crabtree can limit the drops and improve his catch success percentage of 52.2 percent, he could add more points to his already steady workload.
Deeper League Buy-Low Candidates
In his first ever game in the NFL, Keke Coutee accounted for 15 targets and converted those opportunities into 11 catches for 109 yards. Coutee followed that performance up with six catches on seven targets for 51 yards and his first career touchdown. With Will Fuller‘s injury history, Coutee is a must own. Fellow rookie Christian Kirk has quietly totaled 203 yards and 41.5 fantasy points in his last three games. With Larry Fitzgerald banged up and on the verge of retirement, Kirk is becoming the number one option for the Arizona Cardinals. Mohamed Sanu has reemerged as one of the most underrated receivers in fantasy football. After a slow start to the season, Sanu has scored 48 points in the last three weeks. Since the beginning of last season, Sanu has scored 10 or more fantasy points in 65 percent of his games.
Percentage of team targets, season and last four weeks pic.twitter.com/A5oVFuYwYU
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 9, 2018
