The Oakland Raiders have one of the most effective red zone offenses in the NFL through 10 weeks. Success in the red area does not always lead to wins, but in Oakland’s case, there has been a connection.
Breaking Down the Oakland Raiders Red Zone Success
As Robert Mays detailed in an article on The Ringer last week, having an effective offense does not necessarily correlate to red zone success. For the Raiders, it has: they rank fifth in scoring offense (27.2 points per game), and ranked first in both points per red zone appearance (5.96) and touchdowns per red zone appearance (.739) through the first eight weeks of the season, according to Football Outsiders (unfortunately, FO’s drive stats are no longer being updated, but the Raiders standing as a top red zone offense has not changed). Breaking down the Raiders red zone offense in more detail gives us a better idea on whether luck, skill, or a combination of the two is responsible for their success.
Manufacturing Opportunities
Oakland’s play calling has been less balanced in the red zone than other areas of the field. The Raiders have thrown on 68.5% of red zone plays, compared to 60.6% of total plays. There are a number of possible reasons for this disparity. For one, the red zone plays make for a small sample. The distribution of plays in other areas of the field includes additional running plays when the offense was running out the clock to end a half or game. Also, an injury to Latavius Murray temporarily left Oakland without their top red zone back, which may have resulted in an increased reliance on the pass.
The most straightforward explanation for the disparity, though, is that the Raiders passing game is built for red zone success — Derek Carr has demonstrated skill throwing touch passes in that area of the field, and he is surrounded by a glut of big-bodies to throw to. This combination has led to a number of beautiful touchdowns, but has also resulted in another benefit: inducing penalties at an abnormally high rate.
Oakland has capitalized on the fact that teams are more likely to interfere with receivers in the red zone than in other areas of the field — their red zone passing attack has induced seven holding or pass interference penalties, tied with the San Diego Chargers for most in the league. These plays have resulted in an increase of 10.91 expected points for the Raiders. This may seem insignificant, but consider that five of Oakland’s victories have been decided by seven points or less, including two that were decided by just one. The hidden value of these plays has been significant in a season defined by close games.
Jumbo Personnel
The Raiders have also been incredibly effective running the ball in the red zone, albeit in a relatively small sample. Murray has scored on seven of his 16 red zone carries, including on five of his seven attempts from inside the five. The Raiders have had the most success when running out of their heavy set — which utilizes an extra tackle, two tight ends, and a fullback — and have scored five touchdowns with this personnel group.
After Oakland’s success running the ball against the Denver Broncos in Week 9, it would not be surprising to see the team use a more balanced attack moving forward, in the red zone and otherwise. In spite of the explosiveness of their passing game, the Raiders may have stumbled into a formula for winning games as the season progresses and the weather gets less favorable: minimize turnovers, control the clock, and grind out yards behind one of the best run blocking offensive lines in football.
Is It Sustainable?
There are indicators that Oakland’s red zone performance is unsustainable. Despite the highlights, Carr has completed just 51.1% of his red zone passes. The Raiders have also been relatively inefficient on red zone third downs, or “four point plays”; they convert just 33.3% of the time, which is slightly below the league average conversion rate of 38.4%. Their reliance on penalties extending drives is an imperfect practice — as we’ve seen throughout the league, calls in this area lack consistency.
Yet, with their weapons in the passing game and road grading offensive line, the Raiders have all the makings of a successful red zone offense. The margin for error between wins and losses has been remarkably thin for this team, and maintaining their current level of red zone performance may continue to make the difference.
