Over a month ago, the Detroit Red Wings signed forward Vladislav Namestnikov to a two-year deal on the opening day of free agency. Due to Detroit’s lacking forward depth, many expected the versatile forward to step in as the team’s second-line centre for the 2020-21 season behind Dylan Larkin. Not only will Namestnikov fail to be Detroit’s answer at centre, the team already has better options internally to fill the role. This isn’t to say Namestnikov was a bad signing or even a bad player. But metrics and history suggest that utilizing Namestnikov at 2C will be a failed experiment for coach Jeff Blashill and the Wings.
Vladislav Namestnikov Not the Answer For Detroit
Why Vlad Doesn’t Work
In order to understand how Namestnikov may fit into the second-line centre spot in Detroit, we can look at players who have had a similar impact over the past three seasons.
https://imgur.com/NXeartl
Viz from Evolving-Hockey
Explicitly, the graph is saying the Namestnikov sits exactly at the 60th percentile in terms of expected goals above replacement over the past three seasons for forwards. That’s not a bad number. He’s better at generating goals than 60% of NHL forwards with 100 minutes played over the last three years. However, context is always important with advanced metrics, and it’s crucial to look at the comparables that this graph presents. Namestnikov has often flip-flopped between wing and centre over the past few years. Remarkably, none of Namestnikov’s percentile comparables here are bonafide centres, suggesting that players with that type/level of offensive impact are normally better suited for the wing (see: Clayton Keller, Andrew Shaw). The amount of top-six calibre forwards on this list is skim too, but that’s to be taken with a grain of salt.
Basic Stats Tell the Same Story
And while advanced stats are a good place to start, this theory can be backed up as well just by looking at Namestnikov’s point trends, particularly in the 2017-18 season. The Russian was in the midst of a breakout season with the Tampa Bay Lightning, having posted 44 points in 62 games. For this stretch with Tampa, Namestnikov was mostly playing left wing on a line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. While he certainly had some stellar linemates, Namestnikov was more comfortable creating offence on the wing and excelled in this position.
As the Lightning made a playoff push, Namestnikov was shipped to the New York Rangers at the deadline that year. His offence dropped precipitously after the trade, posting only four points in 19 games with the Blueshirts. Namestnikov certainly experienced a downgrade in the talent he played with (he spent most of his time with a mix of Jimmy Vesey, Pavel Buchnevich, and Mats Zuccarello in those contests). However, the Rangers also utilized Namestnikov at centre on either their second or third line for the majority of that stretch. Namestnikov exhibited a lack of ability to create offence while being tasked with tough minutes down the middle. He’d face a similar scene in Detroit.
Who Might Work?
For the purposes of this piece, let’s look at two players who might fit the skillset needed to serve in a top-six scoring role for Detroit in 2020-21.
Likely Option: Robby Fabbri
Robby Fabbri is an intriguing name, and the most likely option to fill the role (at least in this writer’s eyes). It’s kind of a crapshoot to look at Fabbri’s stats over time considering his crushing injury history. But we can still look at his performance from last season (spent mostly with Detroit).
Viz from Evolving-Hockey
Look, let’s not beat around the bush here. None of these options are gonna be great ones – this is still Detroit we’re talking about. Their forward depth is still *not good* and there isn’t much getting around that. However, Fabbri could benefit from increased responsibility. These stats are also being dragged down by a nine-game stint with St. Louis at the beginning of the season, where Fabbri was misused. But still, his offensive ability is much closer to average. In terms of his actual goals for rates, the chart shows that he was floating right around average. For a second-line centre on a bottom-three team, that’s not as bad as it seems.
His expected goals and Corsi rates take a bit of a dip, but they still stay within a reasonable territory. It’s Fabbri’s defence that holds him back, but honestly, he’s still young at just 24. Fabbri is still developing, especially considering the time he lost due to injury. He could be viewed as a breakout candidate next season, and thrusting him in a top-six role may give him the responsibility necessary to reach his ceiling.
Additionally, he’s shown he can produce in Detroit given added ice time. He was playing top-six minutes in Detroit last season, just mostly on the wing. But Fabbri was able to score 31 points in 52 games on an offensively anemic team. It could be a sign of things to come if he can make it work in a central role.
Long Shot Option: Joe Veleno
Joe Veleno is a long shot to make the NHL this season, let alone serve in a top-six role. But the first-round pick of Detroit in 2018 has some decent potential and could be an option for the squad.
Data via Hockey Prospecting
Veleno is an interesting prospect to utilize in Detroit’s top-six. The young natural centre certainly has hype. However, concern crept in last season as he put up rather disappointing numbers in his rookie AHL campaign. The offensive potential is there, though. He excelled in his post-draft year with the QMJHL’s Drummondville. Veleno lit up the league with 104 points in just 59 games. His development may be back on track, too. He’s posted five games in 11 contests in 2020-21 on loan with Malmo in the top Swedish league.
But Veleno’s appeal comes in his two-way game, something Fabbri lacks. He’s a relentless force (think Zach Hyman) with the skill to boot. He could potentially settle in comfortably if paired with a veteran presence. Free-agent addition Bobby Ryan comes to mind. It is certainly a long shot, and by no means is this an actual prediction. However, it’s a possibility worth examining if Detroit wants to find some success this season and advance the development of some of their prospects.
Regardless of who actually ends up filling the role, it shouldn’t be Namestnikov. He can be utilized much more effectively by Blashill and his staff on the wing, and make Detroit’s investment this offseason worth it.
Main Photo:
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