The Ottawa Senators and the New York Islanders are set to square off in one of the most important games on the 2025-26 regular season schedule. Welcome back to NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey. We break down key storylines, statistics, and analysis to try to decipher how this one will play out. Will the Sens play spoiler of sorts to the Isles, or will the Isles keep their 2026 Stanley Cup Playoff hopes alive and well? Find out our thoughts next.
NHL Predictions with Senators and Islanders
Season Series: The third and final meeting between the two clubs, with them splitting the first two in one-goal games, in regulation, both played in Ottawa.
Puck Drop: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) | 2:00 p.m. Atlantic
How to Watch: TSN5, TVAS, MSGSN
Location: The UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, home of the Islanders.
It really does come down to this for the teams. As we enter the last Saturday of regular season action, only the Buffalo Sabres have played 80 games in the Eastern Conference, all other teams are at 79. So things could still change, but it is almost to the point some things will stay the same. Ottawa is 42-27-10 on the year, and find themselves three points clear of the New York Islanders, along with the Detroit Red Wings, for the second Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Islanders at 43-31-5, do have any easier path, as they only trail the Philadelphia Flyers by one point. Columbus and Washington are at 90 and 89 points, respectively, are right there, as well. However, they will be hard pressed to get in. Ottawa does control its own destiny, and a their magic number to clinch is down to three. So, a 1-1-1 record would get them in. In terms of playoff probabilities, Ottawa is at 92.1% and the Islanders are at 37.4%.
Ottawa can clinch today with two points, and only one point each by the Isles and Wings. They hold the tiebreaker by way of regulation wins, so tying in points, would get Ottawa in.
Credit Image: © Alex Cave/ZUMA Press Wire
The Story from Long Island
The biggest story all year long from the Islanders camp has been the play of rookie phenom defenceman Matthew Schaefer. Hands down. The dude’s numbers for an 18-year-old defenceman in the NHL, are flat out unheard of. With one more goal, he will break the tie with Brian Leetch for most goals ever by a rookie defenceman (23). That’s regardless of the fact he is still just 18. His 59 points is good for 11th most on the all-time rookie defenceman scoring list. Only Lane Hutson (66) has recorded more among active players.
Another big development from the Isles, was the firing of head coach Patrick Roy. Letting your bench boss go with so few games remaining, almost seems like lunacy. However, the Islanders have been a notably poor analytic team. They have been punching above their weight class all season long. If it weren’t for their potential Vezina Trophy candidate in Ilya Sorokin between the pipes, they would not be anywhere near a Stanley Cup Playoff spot. The tough thing for the Isles, is that he has likely been overplayed. He can’t do it all himself, and the Islanders are pushing him hard to lead them into the postseason. Head coach Pete DeBoer taking over was one last shot by general manager Mathieu Darche to will his team to the playoffs.
The Sens Story
Senators have a hometown player for this matchup in Shane Pinto. Pinto does come into this one hot, with three goals in his last five games. Look for him to build on his already career year (22 goals, 21 assists).
The Ottawa Senators big news from last time out was the return of Thomas Chabot. The reason it was so groundbreaking was that he was so far ahead of schedule. We guess the thinking that the playoffs have already begun is everyone’s mindset. Initially, Chabot had a timetable between four-and-eight weeks to return. Somehow he made it back in just 17 days.
The Goaltenders
The goaltending matchup shapes up to be another beauty. Linus Ullmark, who has been decorated with award nominations of late (the King Clancy and Bill Masterton Awards), is 27-12-8 on the season. He also sports a 2.78 goals-against average, an .889 save percentage, ranks 53rd of 57 qualifying goals with a minimum of 25 games played with a goals saved above expected of -15.8, and two shutouts. His counterpart, Ilya Sorokin is second in GSAx at an incredible 27.2, putting him in the running for Vezina Trophy consideration. His record isn’t great at 29-22-2, but his other stats are strong. He has a 2.66 GAA, a .908 SV%, with seven shutouts.
However, it is a great time for our disclaimer. Please check social media prior to puck drop, to see definitely who gets the nod, before setting your fantasy roster for the day.
Team Comparison
Stat – Ottawa Senators – New York Islanders
- Power Play – 23.5% (8th) – 17.2% (29th)
- Penalty Kill – 75.0% (29th) – 81.1% (9th)
- GF/G – 3.37 (8th) – 2.87 (23rd)
- GA/G – 3.04 (15th) – 2.87 (6th)
- 5v5 xG% – 55.9% (3rd) – 47.5% (25th)
NHL Predictions
The teams are trending in opposite directions. Ottawa has won four of their last five games, and against top opponents. Meanwhile, the Islanders win against the Toronto Maple Leafs last game out, put an end to a four-game losing streak. Given the Sens advantage in the standings, and the fact the Islanders might be disjointed with the coaching move, we like the Sens.
Prediction: Ottawa 3 – N.Y. Islanders 2
Prop Bets
For our classic anytime goal scorers, take captain Anders Lee for the Isles. He has three goals in his last five games to put him at 19 for the season. For Ottawa, we like Drake Batherson. He has been riding high this season, and has hit career marks, as a result. He scored last time out to put him at 32 goals for the season.
Main Photo Credit: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images
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