Ottawa Senator fans want to know, has Joshua Norris regained his scoring prowess that, once upon a time, had them believing, that along with Tim Stützle, the Sens had as elite of a one-two centre-ice punch as there was in the NHL. Currently for the Sens, he is skating well and playing big minutes. But the NHL is a grind. Given all his injury trouble, has Norris been able to deal with the rigours of the regular season and put those demons in his past? Moreover, perhaps more importantly, has Josh Norris’ 2024-25 stats shown that he has been able to perform at a level that makes him better than his direct competition.
Analyzing Josh Norris 2024-25 Stats Thus Far
As many of you may realize already, Norris has struggled with injuries throughout his career thus far. Specifically, Norris has had to deal with multiple shoulder injuries. They date back as far as 2018-19, when in his sophomore season with the University of Michigan Wolverines, Norris only managed 17 games. Then, if we consider his professional career, including his first pro season that he appeared for the AHL’s Belleville Senators, he has missed a fair bit of action. If we include all of his 56 games with Belleville, and add his 222 career NHL games, it amounts to around 68% of total possible team games played by Norris. However, focusing on the present, the positive aspect is that Norris has played in all 38 Sens games in 2024-25.
If we journey back to the 2021-22 campaign, this is a player who once scored 35 goals in 66 games. That season, he was scoring at a clip of 1.7 goals-per-60-minutes. In contrast, in the last couple seasons, we do see him perhaps negatively regressing to a more sustainable pace. Last year he was at 1.1 G/60 and he’s at 1.2 this year.
Doing What It Takes
Also, he’s still only 25 years old. Needless to say, there’s a lot of upside and potential for him to have a long and productive NHL career. That could simply have been part of his development, knowing how to play to his body type, how to battle in the corners, and just overall getting stronger physically. Furthermore, he’s the type of player that routinely ranked among the most fit amongst his teammates in training camp and consistently a candidate for fastest skater on the Sens. He’s a centreman, who can play a two-way game.
And really, all this discussion is besides the fact that he could easily be serviceable as an NHLer. However, that’s where the $8 million pricetag becomes an issue. Yes, he could certainly be an impactful third liner for an NHL lineup. Conversely, what we want to know is, can he perform as a top-six player? In other words, is Josh Norris a reliable top-two centreman on a team that considers themselves playoff contenders?
Breaking Down Josh Norris’ 2024-25 Scoring Stats
Let’s break down the metrics to see why we can say that, statistically, he may be back on form. So far in 2024-25, he has 38 games played, recorded 14 goals, and added eight assists for 22 points. Additionally, he is well above his career average ice time of 17:51, clocking in at 18:49. That is at a level of a player who his coach relies on for key situations. Therefore, there is the argument to make, that even if Norris isn’t scoring at a career rate, he is still playing as big of minutes as he ever has played.
Breaking down some of his personal stats, his 14 goals does seem to align with his career trajectory. In 2024-25, he is scoring at a shooting percentage of 19.7. That is a very high clip and only down slightly from his career-year in 2021-22, that was 20.3%. As a note, for his career, he sits at 17.6%. Hence, based on a purely shooting percent standpoint, he is slightly more efficient than usual, but not unsustainable by any means. One reason he is off his pace of 2021-22 is his total shots. In 2021-22, he had an amazing 319 shots. Considering he played just 66 games, good for a 4.83 shots-per-game-average. This year he only has 131, or about 3.45 S/G.
Darkhorse Senator Forward Trying to Stick in Top Six
The Magic that was from Tkachuk, Batherson, and Norris in 2021-22
One interesting point of our repeated comparison to Norris’ 2021-22 campaign is mainly having the same line. Of course, for both seasons, Norris has been flanked by Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson.
This year the line has played 95 minutes together with a 60.8 xGoals% and 80.0 actual goals %. That is compared with the total line’s terrific productivity, totaling 373 minutes, with a surprising 46.8 xGoals% but an excellent 61.9 actual goal %. This efficiency could be, at least partially, explained by Norris’ elevated shooting percentage.
To wrap up the comparison with the 2021-22 season to this one for Josh Norris is some stats from the power play. That past year saw him register 16 goals, along with 23 points on the man advantage. However, he only has five goals, good for nine points, which is preventing him from having higher both goal and point totals this year. The main factor for Norris personally, is his lack of shooting. Analyzing total shot attempts, he had 127 in 2021-22 on the power play. This year? A measly 33. No wonder he’s not racking up the points. Perhaps the power play unit is making a concerted effort to spread around the offensive opportunity more. One point is for certain, it’s not a result of lack of chances. He’s played 125 power play minutes in 2024-25, but he totaled 214 in 2021-22.
Some Final Thoughts and Musing
It is unfair to use 2021-22 as a baseline for Josh Norris’ stats for 2024-25 and beyond. He was incredibly efficient that year. Additionally, he took 319 shots. He would really need to pick it up to achieve that level. However, the league has changed.
Another angle on Norris, is that him not shooting may still be a confidence issue. Ah, yes, he has had to rehab injury, so maybe he is hesitant to go to the goal-scoring areas. It is tough to say.
The Sens are a deeper team than in 2021-22. Given that he has played high-leverage minutes, on the top power play unit, and primarily on a line that is considered one of the team’s top-two lines, we think we have answered our original hypothesis. That original hypothesis being if he has outdueled his direct competition. The fact his ice time is up and the team is deeply entrenched in a playoff race in January, he matches up quite well to his competition.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
