Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are scheduled then offers insight and analysis to help predict who will be victorious in head-to-head matchups. Today we are looking at the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions as the 2024-25 season continues.
NHL Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: SN, SN1, SCRIPPS
In an early season battle for the top of the Atlantic Division the Toronto Maple Leafs (13-6-2) head south to face the Florida Panthers (12-9-1). This is the first of four meetings between these two teams this season. The winner of this regular season series could very well be atop the division once the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs begin.
The Maple Leafs are Rolling in November
Toronto has been racking up the wins this month going 7-2-1. All of those wins have come without Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs other stars have been stepping up in his absence but, a big reason for all the success is the greatly improved defence and goaltending. Anthony Stolarz is top three in the NHL in both goals-against average and save percentage. His partner, Joseph Woll, was just named Third Star of the Week. The goaltenders have been helped out by the defensive genius of the Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev pairing. They have the lowest expected goals against of any NHL pair that has played at least 150 minutes at 5-on-5 together.
The biggest question heading into this game is will Matthews play? It seemed like a step in the right direction after he practiced yesterday on a line with Pontus Holmberg and William Nylander as his wingers. While the captain didn’t confirm his return, he also didn’t rule it out. Stating the obvious this would be a huge boost to a Leafs team that is really starting to find their form under head coach Craig Berube. The Maple Leafs will just have to make sure they don’t change how they have been playing if their superstar does get back into the lineup.
Panthers Looking to Get Back on Track
Florida has gone the opposite way of Toronto so far in November. They are 5-6-0 this month and currently riding a four-game losing streak. They have uncharacteristically been giving up a lot of goals over those four games, culminating in a -11 goal differential. This has lead to a 3.45 GA/GP, almost a full goal worse per game than the Maple Leafs at 2.48. Sergei Bobrovsky will face former Panther Anthony Stolarz between the pipes in this game tonight which should be a good battle between last years Stanley Cup winning tandem. Bobrovsky will have to out duel his former backup in order for his team to win the game.
This will be the final game of a three game homestand for the Panthers. In the first two games they were able to score the first goal of the game. Usually scoring first results in a greater chance to win but that hasn’t been the case for Florida recently. They lost both those home games after they opened the scoring. Overall they are 7-3-0 when scoring first so they will need to get back to maintaining the lead if they do score first tonight. This could be a key in this game as the Panthers are only 5-6-1 when allowing their opponent to score first. Their opponent, the Maple Leafs, are 9-1-1 when scoring first increasing the importance.
NHL Predictions Panthers and Leafs
This game could very well be whoever scores first wins. However, there are two other key areas to watch. The first is how the Leafs new look defence handles the Panthers forecheck. This has been a major problem for Toronto in the past but expect them to handle it better tonight. The second will be how Florida responds to their losing streak. Expect them to be much better and eager to show that they are still the beasts of the Atlantic Division. They won both games on home ice against the Maple Leafs last season. Of course if Matthews returns it adds another layer to this battle.
Prediction: Maple Leafs win 3-2 in overtime
Prop Bets of The Night
While all eyes will be whether Matthews is playing don’t forget about Mitch Marner. He has been scorching hot with 34 out of the lineup and has 35 points in 26 career games against the Panthers. Take him to record 1+ points. On the Panthers side of the ledger Carter Verhaeghe has only scored 3 times in the Panthers last 10 games. Look for him to breakout against the organization he was once apart of. He is +200 as an anytime goal scorer on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton – Imagn Images
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