Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are scheduled and offers insight and analysis to help predict who will be victorious in head-to-head matchups. In today’s round of NHL Predictions we are looking at the game between the Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions as the 2024-25 season continues.
NHL Predictions
Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: TSN4, FDSNDET, TVAS-D
A classic Original Six matchup between two of the most storied franchise pits the Detroit Red Wings (6-5-1) against the Toronto Maple Leafs (7-5-2). It will be a special evening at Scotiabank Arena as this is also the Hockey Hall of Fame game honouring the new inductees. The players will have to focus on the task at hand as this is the first of four meetings between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs. With the teams sporting nearly identical records, this is an important divisional matchup.
Detroit Getting Strong Goaltending
Winners of both games in November so far it appears as though Detroit is starting to find their game. Helping this has been the play of goalie Cam Talbot. The Red Wings have collected points in the last four games he has started going 3-0-1. His play along with Alex Lyon’s has helped Detroit produce a team save percentage of .915. Even with improved goalie play, the Red Wings are -3 in the goal differential category. This has been an area of emphasis for head coach Derek Lalonde. Instead of trying to outscore their defensive lapses, he wants his team to play better defence in front of their goalies.
Another factor contributing to recent success has been the team’s power play. The Red Wings are loaded with offensive weapons leading to their power play converting on 25% of their opportunities. However, the power play success hasn’t always transferred over to 5-on-5 results with Detroit only scoring 2.75 goals/game, ranking in the bottom half of the league. They may be sacrificing too much offence for defence.
Will Auston Matthews Play?
Auston Matthews missed the Maple Leafs previous game against the Boston Bruins with an upper-body injury. The Leafs performed just fine without him in that one winning 4-0. He did not practice or skate yesterday. Leafs head coach Craig Berube said Matthews remains day-to-day and he doesn’t know his status for this weekends games. It seems as though he won’t be available to face the Red Wings. In a bit of an odd statistic the Maple Leafs are 36-19-2 without Matthews in the lineup throughout his career, so there should be no excuses from Toronto.
With Matthews’ status a question mark William Nylander and Mitch Marner will have to step up and carry the offensive load. Both players were very good Tuesday against the Bruins. That will have to continue against the Red Wings. The power play will also have to stay on track. Oddly enough with Matthews sidelined against Boston the Leafs struggling power play broke out, scoring three times. Two important details seemed to work. Having Matthew Knies net front and simplifying the approach by putting more pucks on net were key. This will have to continue with or without their captain.
NHL Predictions: Leafs vs Wings
Both teams are playing in the first game of a back-to-back. Combined with the divisional battle this game is an important one to win. These two teams have played high event hockey lately leading to lots of goals being scored. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues with both coaches preaching defence. Special teams will also play a role. Each teams stronger unit will be battling. The Red Wings PP will battle the Leafs 86% PK. Meanwhile a Toronto PP that got on track against the Bruins will get a chance to continue their success against a Detroit PK only killing off power plays at 69.4%. The special team battle and defensive struggle might just decide this one.
Prediction: Maple Leafs win 5-3
Prop Bets of The Night
Marner always seems to put on a show against the Red Wings. He has scored his most career goals against them. He is +160 as an anytime goal scorer on FanDuel Sportsbook. As mentioned these teams like to play offensive hockey against one another. Lean towards the over 6.5 total goals at +102.
Main Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
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