Trying to identify the source of the Montreal Canadiens struggles thus far in the season can be a challenge. For our analysis today, we will focus on the team’s defensive alignment, which is fair considering, they are 31st in goals-against-per-game at 4.00. It does seem like the Habs have a number of issues that are causing them to struggle overall. However, we shall focus on the Montreal Canadiens defence, to try to narrow in on what specifically are some root causes of the team’s overall issues.
Montreal Canadiens as a Team Needs to Tighten their Defence
Montreal Canadiens Potential Star Defenceman Still Work in Progress
The best way to begin our discussion is with some stats, just to hammer down our points. Below are most of the more common pairings seen thus far on the season. Also, it includes the highest minutes for each individual, along with some of the top minute pairings overall. Moreover, the concerning part from the statistics are all the inferior xGoals%. Not being over 50% can be concerning, especially when it is so low for the top-minute munchers. These are supposed to be the very players that head coach Martin St. Louis would rely in high leverage situations.
| LD | RD | Minutes | xGoals% | Goals% |
| Hutson | Savard | 125 | 35.4% | 30.0% |
| Matheson | Guhle | 83 | 44.2% | 33.3% |
| Matheson | Barron | 56 | 46.8% | 20.0% |
| Guhle | Hutson | 38 | 51.2% | 100% |
| Hutson | Mailloux | 33 | 27.8% | 75.0% |
| Matheson | Struble | 29 | 68.8% | 66.7% |
| Xhekaj | Struble | 27 | 50.0% | 100% |
| Xhekaj | Mailloux | 25 | 37.5% | 33.3% |
Analytically, you can definitely establish a few ideas. Unfortunately, most of them are none to favourable if you’re a Habs fan. Now, you don’t need all your pairings to be above the 50% mark for expected or actual goals for. However, there should be some consistency and they should approach the 50% benchmark in most cases. As we see from the table above, far too often their pairings are well below that value, in both categories of expected and actual results. Also, with the amount of pairings shown in our table, we can see there has been constant shuffling. This is again a sign that things aren’t quite right on the backend. It’s nearly impossible to build a starting lineup based exclusively on non-overlapping pairings from what is shown.
St. Louis Feverishly Searching for Answers
The main calming influence on the blueline is ideally Mike Matheson. He’s a great all-around NHL defenceman, and sees his fair share of personal success. But, what about that translating to team success? Matheson is using his skating and offensive skills well to man the top power play unit. His veteran leadership on the Montreal Canadiens defence gets him to mentor the young players and be out there in those stressful situations, such as late period faceoffs. However, when your total Goals% is 20-30% like it is with Kaiden Guhle and Justin Barron, the team would naturally be out of rhythm.
Granted, Kaiden Guhle did miss time with injury, but it is about finding his stride and playing well. However, he is still young and not totally refined in achieving favourable outcomes, which is why Matheson’s impact becomes all the more relevant. More specifically, his numbers when paired with Matheson, in what you think could be considered a top pairing on the Canadiens is a great example. Their xGoals% of 44.2 is bad enough, but the fact their actual Goals% is down at 33.3, that’s largely unacceptable.
When we dig into the details, there are many underlying problems as we have discussed thus far. Justin Barron was a healthy scratch last night, which is a by-product of a coach searching for answers. Ultimately, players would be getting regular ice time, whether that is at the NHL or AHL level. Moreover, on the other end of the spectrum, take a player like Arber Xhekaj and possibly being subjected to trade rumours. Montreal is a different beast, but c’mon man.
The Montreal Canadiens Defence is Riddled with Highlights
The main positive through the forest is seeing the fruits of the labour the apple tree with Lane Hutson. He is showing great things. His puck possession stats are off-the-chart. In addition, his explosive skating, and ability to leave wingers in his wake by dancing at the blueline show his potential as a star in the NHL. Also, the combination of he with Guhle have shown positive results. It would be difficult to build the pairings around them, especially where they are so young.
The Logan Mailloux and Hutson pairing is another source of a bright spot. If it weren’t worth mentioning, Canadien fans wouldn’t have anything to believe in. The template is there, but with a coach who’s focus has been development, it can be very difficult to make a fundamental switch mid stream. That will be the challenge for St. Louis and the Habs defensive unit.
Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte – USA TODAY Sports
