Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games and give analysis. Our team break down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, the New York Islanders will take on the New York Rangers. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs New York Rangers
Time: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: NHL Network, MSG, MSGSN
This matchup features two heated Metropolitan Division and crosstown rivals. They are off to two very different starts to their seasons. The Islanders sit sixth in the division with a record of 4-5-2 through 11 games. The Rangers sit second in the division with a record of 7-2-1 through 10 games. This will be the first of three meetings between these two teams this season. This first game is happening in the world’s most famous arena Madison Square Garden. Last season these teams played four times with the Rangers winning the series 3-1.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, the injury bug is becoming the story for this team. They just lost their best player Mathew Barzal to the long-term injury reserve for four-to-six weeks with an upper-body injury. This comes a couple of weeks after they lost Anthony Duclair to the LTIR with a LBI. This did not stop them from picking up a 4-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres in their last game. These injuries come at the worst time as the team is going through a bad offensive drought. They have been shutout in four of the first 11 games. The four goals in the last game were enough to bump them out of dead last for goals per game. They now rank 31st with 2.27 GPG. The new-look first line of Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau accounted for two goals in their first game together. They will need this consistently if they hope to stay afloat while the stars are on the shelf.
The injuries did not stop with the offensive players. Top-line defenceman Adam Pelech has also found his way on the IR with an upper-body injury and will miss four-to-six weeks. Mike Reilly was knocked out cold on the ice after a big hit in the last game. He is day-to-day but not expected to play in this game. Alexander Romanov is also dealing with an upper-body injury. He missed practice and is day-to-day, but expects to play. Grant Hutton and Samuel Bolduc have been recalled from Bridgeport to fill the void on the blueline. To this point, the Islander defence has been good ranking seventh in goals against with 2.91 per game. We will see if this continues with the new faces on defence. If Ilya Sorokin plays the way he has been it could. Sorokin has been amazing with a 2-2-1 record, a .932 save percentage and a 1.80 goals-against average.
The Rangers Story
The Rangers have gotten off to a flying start to this season. Their high-powered offence can take a lot of the credit for that. They rank fourth in goals for with 3.90 per game. Superstar Atremi Panarin leads the way on the top line with 16 points in ten games. Newly extended Alexis Lafrenière is also producing nicely on their top line with ten points in ten games. However, it is not just them, they have a deep forward group and can get production from all over. Secondary scorers Will Cuyle on their second line and Filip Chytil on the third line both have eight points in 10 games. Powered by one of the best power plays in the league, which ranks seventh at 27.6%.
For the Rangers, it is not just about offence. They have a good defence and one of the best goalies in the league. Their goals-against per game is number one in the league at 2.20 per game. A strong penalty kill helps that number a ton, as they rank second in the league at 91.2%. Their defence has only given up 19 high-danger shots, ranking ninth in the league. However, even if they let shots up they will most likely be stopped by Igor Shesterkin. He is arguably the best goalie in the league and after turning down a massive contract in the offseason, he is out to prove his worth. He is doing just that with his incredible play early on this season and will be up for the Vezina Trophy at season’s end. His record is 5-2-1 with a .931 SV% and a 2.25 GAA.
NHL Predictions the Battle of NYC
Despite the extra juice of a heated rivalry and the players getting up a little extra for this game, this seems like an easy one to call. The Rangers are one of the best teams in hockey and are playing at a high level. The Islanders are beaten up with injuries and are having a historically bad stretch on offence. Playing at MSG gives another edge to the Rangers who should win this game comfortably.
Prediction: 4-2 Rangers Win in Regulation
Prop Bets
According to Fanduel, the Rangers are -194 on the moneyline. Those aren’t the best odds for value but the Rangers should win, so we think this is safe. The spread is Rangers -1.5 and while the prediction is a two-goal difference, this could easily be a one-score game so stay away from that. The over/under is 5.5 and while the Islanders don’t score much, the Rangers score a lot, so this over should hit at -124. As far as anytime goal scorers, for the Islanders Bo Horvat is +195 and with Barzal now on the mend it’s on him to step up and score. For the Rangers, Artemi Panarin is at +123, he scored in two of the four games against the Islanders last season and is hot to start this season take him to score one.
Main Photo Credit: Danny Wild – USA TODAY Sports
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