Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games, breaking down the key matchups and providing relevant analysis to how they might play out. Today, the Winnipeg Jets look to bounce back after their incredible winning streak to start the season was snapped by the Toronto Maple Leafs as they travel to Motown to take on the Detroit Red Wings. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue our NHL predictions throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings, from Little Caesars Arena
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central Daylight Time (CDT)
TV: Sportsnet One, ESPN+
2023-24 Regular Season Series Winnipeg won (2-0)
The Jets Have Done a Complete 180 Since Bowness’ Tenure
Perhaps the loss to the Leafs will cool the Jets down to the earth’s surface. But then again, perhaps not. Connor Hellebuyck, the expected starter, reigning Vezina Trophy, still remains on fire. As a note, please check for the very latest lineup news and notes before locking in your fantasy starter for any given game. Back to Hellebuyck, and even with the five goals surrendered to the Leafs Monday, his numbers remain outstanding. He has a 6-1 record, with a 2.14 goals-against average, a .925 save percentage, and one of those victories was a shutout for good measure. If good teams have good goaltending, the Jets have plenty of that at their disposal.
The other side of the story for the Jets, is that this isn’t your dad’s Jet team. Well maybe not that far back, but for head coach Scott Arniel, thus far, he has bumped one negative trend from his predecessor and mentor, Rick Bowness. In a tie for the lead league with 12 power play goals and tops in the league with a 44.4% on the power play are the Winnipeg Jets. Last year, they were 22nd in the NHL at 18.8% on man advantage. The year prior they were 24th at 19.3%. You get the idea. It had been considered somewhat a downfall for the team, especially when the playoffs got going.
Of course, with the good, comes the bad. Unfortunately, their 5v5 play has slipped. It’s not like it was great last year, with a team xGoals% of 51.36, good for 13th. However, they do struggle this year it seems, currently 27th in the NHL at 45.66%. As long as the power play is clicking and their goaltending is strong enough to offset some negative analytic results, they should be fine big picture. And this has been the case thus far.
The Winged Wheel at Home
When it comes to the Red Wings, just how do they matchup with the Jets? First of all, their expected netminder for tonight is Alex Lyon. The Yale product has great rhythm to his game through five games played. His 2-2 record may leave some room for improvement, but one shutout, a 2.05 GAA and a .940 SV% is more than on track. This should keep them competitive going up against the elite Hellebuyck.
When it comes to a comparison of the two teams’ power plays, Detroit, despite firepower, has yet to get it going. They currently sit 18th at 18.5%. The Wings are waiting for their big players to get going. With players of the calibre of Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider, and Vladimir Tarasenko as options for the power play, it is a matter of when, not if. Finally, 5v5 stats are actually on par with Winnipeg, as they are slightly lower. They are ranked 30th at 44.21 xGoals%.
NHL Predictions: Red Wings and Jets
If we stick with the theme of power plays, looking at the leaders, Winnipeg has the advantage. Kyle Connor is actually in the lead league with four power play tucks and Josh Morrissey already is up to five assists on the PP. In contrast, the Wings lag behind in these statistics. Dylan Larkin leads the team with two PP goals and Lucas Raymond‘s three assists leads the similar stat. Look for this one to be a low scoring affair, with special teams ultimately being the decider.
Prediction: Jets win in regulation, 3-1.
According to Fanduel, if we want to look at adding some extra excitement to the action, check out these picks. We like the under based on the goaltending matchup, despite it being only at 5.5, it is good for +112. Connor has been so hot, take him as an anytime scorer at +130. For the Wings, Raymond looks to get it going in the goal column, take him for the +260.
Main Photo: Rick Osentoski – USA TODAY Sports
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