Welcome to the latest edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our team here at Last Word on Hockey breaks down head-to-head matchups and other key elements that may influence the outcome of each game. We also have a featured game of the day, which is considered must-watch TV. This NHL Predictions article examines the 2024 Western Conference Final rematch between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers.
NHL Predictions
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
Time: 4:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: Victory+, ESPN+; Sportsnet
The Stars and the Oilers are set to meet for the first time this season. The teams met in last year’s Western Conference Final series, which Edmonton won in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Yet, things are very different for each team at the beginning of the 2024-25 season.
Dallas (4-1) enters Saturday’s contest looking to avoid back-to-back losses after suffering its first against Washington on Thursday night. The Stars were looking for a historic 5-0-0 start, but the Capitals jumped all over them in the second period. Players have pointed out past performance issues in the second period of games, so naturally, you have to wonder if that has crept back into their minds.
Edmonton (2-3) is battling to get back to .500, having won consecutive games against the Philadelphia Flyers and the Nashville Predators. Brett Kulak led the way with two goals against Nashville, and Connor McDavid netted his first of the season.
Nonetheless, this will be a highly-anticipated rematch between two elite teams, and you know the Dallas fans haven’t forgotten how their last meeting ended. Plus, Dallas is honoring former president Jim Lites and former captain Brenden Morrow by inducting them into the Dallas Stars Hall of Fame this weekend.
Dallas Stars Story
Goaltender Jake Oettinger just signed an eight-year contract extension this week, but backup Casey DeSmith got the call in the net against Washington. Oettinger has started three games this season and allowed five goals, three against Nashville and two against San Jose. Wyatt Johnston, Mason Marchment, Logan Stankoven, and Roope Hintz have driven the offense so far.
One concern for the Stars has been their power play. Everyone knows Dallas has a potent offense, but it has yet to translate on special teams. The Stars are 1/17 with the man advantage this season and haven’t converted since opening night. That obviously needs to be better going forward, especially with Dallas’s loaded roster.
The Stars are also dealing with injuries. While defenceman Brendan Smith expects to play, they will be without forward Tyler Seguin and defenceman Matt Dumba. Forward Sam Steel is also questionable. That may mean an increased role for rookie forward Oskar Back, who got his first NHL point on Thursday.
Edmonton Oilers Story
The defending Western Conference Champs have struggled out of the gate but come into Saturday on a winning streak. Like Dallas, the power play has yet to find its footing, only scoring once this season. The offence started slowly with just three goals in the first two games following a shutout in the preseason finale. However, the Oilers have scored eight goals over the last two games, immediately translating to wins.
Goaltending has also been a concern for Edmonton. Opponents have scored multiple goals in each game, and the stats aren’t pretty. Stuart Skinner, who was a key factor in helping Edmonton beat Dallas in the playoffs, is 1-2-0 on the season with a 4.42 goals-against average. Backup Calvin Pickard has not been much better with a 1-1-0 record and 3.28 GAA. Both rank near the bottom of the NHL at this early point in the season. As a team, Edmonton ranks 26th out of the 32 NHL clubs in goals allowed.
Prediction
This is a huge game early in the season, and the Stars have been on a roll. Edmonton still has some things to work out like it did early last season but feels like it may be about to turn the corner. The offensive potency is there on both sides, it’s just a matter of who unlocks it best with their strategies. However, if Skinner doesn’t return to his playoff form, Dallas has a massive advantage defensively. That’s not something I expected to write when the season began.
Prediction: Stars win 3-2.
Prop Bets of the Night
Based on Bet365’s available props, I’m going with Wyatt Johnston to have multiple points (+300). He is tied for the Dallas team lead with five points in the first five games (one in each game)and is due for a multi-point performance. Being at home and seeking revenge for last season, a good bet is to put Dallas to lead after the first period (+180). Zach Hyman has yet to score for Edmonton this year, but he scored three times in the Western Conference Final against this Stars team. It’s possibly a good matchup for him to get his first (+165).
Main photo by: Walter Tychnowicz-Imagn Images
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