There’s still time to review some Ottawa Senators players’ individual performance predictions before the season officially gets underway. We have covered some significant pieces for the Ottawa Senators already including Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. Today we shall present our estimates for the point projections for Sens centre Shane Pinto. The timing couldn’t be better coming off his three goal night in the last preseason game Saturday versus the Montreal Canadiens. Pinto really seemed to find his groove in 2023-24. Therefore, let’s discuss whether or not he will be able to find that level again in 2024-25. This will include the possible factors driving Pinto’s game and what impact it could potentially have.
Analyzing Pinto’s Point Predictions Starting With His Shooting
Shane Pinto has a good wrister, and its one reason he will have a decent overall estimated point total for 2024-25. It is a hard, low shot, one that goal scorers tend to possess. He’s also confident and not afraid to let it fly when he gets the puck in the home plate area. His goal scoring and its efficiency really depends who is on a line with him. The idea is most line combinations would see him as more of a shooter on the line.
Pinto is a very adaptable player offensively and his productivity is very much dependent on his linemates. Not to say that he can’t drive play, but as a relied upon two-way centre, a playmaking winger can really benefit his offensive output. Even though Alex DeBrincat gets a bad wrap for not producing more himself in his one season as a Senator, he did help Pinto score 20 goals in a second-line role as a rookie.
Analyzing the Numbers Behind his Game
In 2022-23, Pinto averaged 7.23 shots/60 minutes. Moreover, last season, he bumped that up slightly to 8.89. He was even playing a lot more per game, from 15:59 a night to just over 18 minutes a game. Therefore, despite more ice time, and playing in tougher situations as a result, he was still able to generate a higher rate of shots on goal. For those two numbers, his shots per 60 minutes should stay around the same and his ice time will actually, very likely increase. For instance, if he is taking 8.5 shots every 60 minutes, and skates around 18 and a half minutes a game for 75 games, he would end up with about 197 shots on goal for the season.
In reality, that is a good number of shots for a two-way centre, that isn’t considered a top-line one. Furthermore, if he is around a 10% shooting percentage, he will hit the 20-goal milestone for the second time of his career. Last season saw Pinto’s shooting percentage dip. It was 8.2%, compared to the year before when it was 12.7%. Therefore, we should expect a bounce back, but it will depend on his linemates, and how they are at generating offence. Also, it will be higher if he’s playing with more so efficient, offensive finishers.
Thinking About Who Pinto Plays on a Line With
There are still unknowns on the Sens rosters. One difference from last year at forward, seems to be the club’s depth. They should be able to roll three solid lines, in terms of defensive reliability and offensive upside. From our Puck Drop Preview, and our best guess at the line combinations, we had Pinto with Joshua Norris and David Perron. If the three of them end up playing together, they should be very effective at wearing down defences off the cycle, and using the offensive abilities to be efficient goal scorers.
Each of the last two seasons, Pinto’s main line has been decent at generating offence. Last year he played with Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson for 271.8 minutes and had a 56.6 xGoals%. Anytime you skate with Tkachuk, you will find it easy to generate scoring chances. However, Tkachuk has been known to struggle somewhat when it comes to offensive efficiency. That was evidenced by Pinto’s shooting percentage.
The previous season, Batherson again linked up with Pinto most often. Moreover, their other winger was none other than Alex DeBrincat. They played 476.9 minutes together with a 52.9 xGoals%. Playing with two players with the playmaking abilities of DeBrincat and Batherson gave Pinto the opportunity to be more of a shooter, and hang out in the bumper position and finish off plays. One note worth mentioning is on Batherson. He is a very good offensive player overall. He brings size, he skates hard, he is gifted with soft hands, and has solid vision. If Pinto ends up on his line again, that will only be good for both of their point totals.
What About Pinto’s Special Teams Work
Another big factor that Pinto can use to drive up his point totals would be power play ice time. The Senators are a team that do have a lot of options on the power play. So much so, those players that don’t make either of the two main power play units get a shot at extra-curricular situations with penalty killing. Pinto may fall into that category, but similar to last year, he will get power play time as well. Last year he still managed nearly 100 minutes of power play time, which was in only half a season. That is a lot of ice time considering, as will be the case this season, he would be more so considered a part of the second power play. However, like last year, he would be a top option to fill in for the first unit for injuries or if head coach Travis Green wants to mix things up.
Finally Shane Pinto’s Point Projections
Well time for the business section of our analysis. The influence of the power play time, which if it is similar to last year, will drive up Shane Pinto’s 2024-25 point projections. Regardless if he is getting goals or assists, decent time on the power play adds a minimum of 15 points on the season. It does seem given the added forward depth on the Sens, Pinto will be able to increase his shooting percentage, and land somewhere between 20-25 goals.
Again, using last year’s half-season sample size, Pinto has established himself as a consistent offensive producer. His 18 assists in 41 games is definitely a standard he can set for a personal goal over a full 2024-25 campaign. It may dip slightly if he ends up as the finisher on plays. Regardless, we should be able to put his floor value of apples around 30. With all things considered equal, we’d say we are just about equal. It may seem lofty for a two-way, non-first-liner centre, but this writer is locking his over/under in at 62. Given a skater with 18 and a half minutes a game, 200 minutes, 200 shots, and oh yeah, he’s carrying momentum from the preseason, look for him to fill the scoresheet early and often.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
