Jake Neighbours had his breakout season last year with the St. Louis Blues. After scoring 27 goals, there are expectations for Neighbours heading into the new season.
Neighbours’ Breakout Season Mirrors Scouting Report
When he was drafted, Neighbours was projected to be someone who was capable of offence. He was labeled as strong on the forecheck who would go in front of the net to create more chances. On defence, Neighbours was projected to be solid. His quick stick would allow him opportunities to steal the puck. Furthermore, his size would allow to him to block shots. Based on this, Neighbours was considered a top prospect in the Blues organization.
In the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, Neighbours only played in 49 games total. While there were signs that he could be a productive player, especially by how he would use his size to make plays, there was not enough of a sample size to get a gauge of his potential. However, the departure of key forwards like David Perron, Ryan O’Reilly, and Vladimir Tarasenko opened up a spot for Neighbours to see more time on the ice.
Neighbours made the most of his increased opportunity. The 22-year old played in 77 games and scored 27 goals. He ranked fourth on the team in power play goals with eight. Furthermore, his shooting percentage of 18.6% placed him 16th best in the league. On defence, Neighbours made the most of the opportunity as well. He spent time on the team’s penalty kill. Also, he ranked fourth on the team with 138 hits, highlighting his physical style of hockey.
Expectations for Neighbours Following Breakout Season Regarding His Ice Time
Despite the breakout season, Neighbours only averaged a little over 12 minutes a game. In comparison, Robert Thomas, who scored 26 goals last season, averaged almost 21 minutes a game. The fact that Neighbours did what he did last year despite not having much time on the ice makes his season even more remarkable.
Neighbours will undoubtedly see more time on the ice per game next season. Not only does he earn it, but this is also the time for the Blues to see if Neighbours can repeat his success. The Blues will be a fringe playoff team this year and are not expected to be Stanley Cup contenders. This is a great spot to see what Neighbours can give the team more ice time. Neighbours should expect to get more time on the ice. Furthermore, Neighbours will also be on the Blues top two lines. While his linemates are to be determined, they will likely be two of either Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn, and Brandon Saad.
Expectations for Goals and Assists
Playing on the top two lines for an entire 82-game season should cause an influx of goals and assists for Neighbours. He only had 11 assists last season. Part of that is his net-front play. Once the puck gets on his stick in front, he correctly puts it right back on goal. Being in front of the net is not a spot to be looking to pass the puck. With that being said, playing with other scorers will help Neighbours pick up more assists. This is where his defensive ability can be a strong asset. If Neighbours can help disrupt a play in the defensive end, that can lead to a rush the other way where the Blues score.
Think about the Sammy Blais goal against the Dallas Stars in the second round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Ryan O’Reilly broke up a play in the defensive zone and passed the puck to Blais, who scored on a breakaway. Plays of a similar nature can happen if Neighbours continues to disrupt plays in the defensive end.
Likewise, playing with additional scorers will help Neighbours add on to his goal total. This is especially true if he plays alongside Robert Thomas. In the past three seasons, Thomas has recorded 57, 47, and 60 assists. Thomas is capable of setting up goals as well as scoring them. Those two could be quite the duo together. Even if he does not play with Thomas, Neighbours should expect to see an increase in goals and assists.
Expectations on Defence
Neighbours has used his size and stickhandling to break up plays in the defensive zone. The same should be expected again this season. As mentioned above, his skills in the defensive zone can help to lead to offensive chances off the rush.
As of now, it is not clear what Neighbours’ role will be on the penalty kill. While he did play on it last year with success, the Blues have made moves that have brought it other candidates for the penalty kill. The team traded for centres Radek Faksa and Alexandre Texier, both of whom have spent time on the penalty kill in the past. The Blues have other options as well, including Buchnevich, Saad, Schenn, and Oskar Sundqvist. It is worth pointing out that the question of Neighbours’ role on the penalty kill has way more to do with who the Blues have available than it does his ability to perform in that role.
Regardless of his role on the penalty kill, Neighbours should be expected to be a firm defender once again. There is potential for Neighbours to be another O’Reilly or David Backes.
Neighbours Seems Ready to Meet the Expectations
After the Blues 2023-24 season ended, Neighbours returned to his home in Alberta to continue to work on his game. Neighbours had acknowledge that following his breakout season, teams will be preparing for him more than they did last year. Furthermore, Neighbours used the Stanley Cup Playoffs as motivation to raise the level of intensity to match the competition.
“The offseason is about getting better at parts of the game that you don’t have time to work on during an 82-game season,” Neighbours said. “So I’ve just been in the gym a lot, on the ice a lot, trying to get stronger and improve my game. I think watching the playoffs, how competitive the hockey is, and seeing how fun it looked, the atmosphere, it was hard to watch knowing you could’ve been a part of it. It was a motivating factor for me.”
Predictions for Neighbours in 2024-25
Considering the factors mentioned already, Neighbours could score somewhere between 33-37 goals this coming season. Furthermore, his assist total should climb to the high twenties or low thirties, if not higher. These are reasonable expectations given what we saw from Neighbours last season as well as his expanded role this season.
A Seat on the Blues Core Is Open
The contract extension earlier this summer for Buchnevich locked him up along with Thomas and Kyrou as part of the Blues future core. If Neighbours can replicate his success this year and meet the expectations, he may be looking at a contract extension as well. Furthermore, Neighbours would join the Blues future core group.
Main photo: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
