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The Ottawa Senators Playoffs Depend Highly on Thomas Chabot’s Play

Thomas Chabot Injured

The time is now for the Ottawa Senators leader of their defensive squad, Thomas Chabot. With all the changes that general manager Steve Staios has enacted on the Sens roster, the team has caught feelings of stability and accountability. The eight-year NHL veteran defenceman Chabot has endured the tough times during the club’s rebuild and more recent shift to having expectations of reaching the playoffs. However, those hard times are yet to translate to happy ones, but Chabot and crew are poised to change that positioning.

Ottawa Senators Defenceman Thomas Chabot Performance for 2024-25

For the individual, Thomas Chabot wants to prove to everyone he is the borderline star defender he has been classified at times throughout his career. The hope in the Canadian national capital city is that recently acquired Nick Jensen will provide that spark to Chabot’s game and just overall demeanour. This could really settle the potential defence combinations for Ottawa’s pairings.  So, why can we make such an assertion that Chabot is poised for a big year in 2024-25? Let’s start by analyzing past D partners for the Quebec native.

Other Top Pairs in the NHL

Before we get directly into Chabot, just some notes on the relevance of this discussion. We aren’t saying that every star defenceman have had a consistent partner throughout their NHL career, but some definitely have. One current high-end example includes the Colorado Avalanche pairing of Cale Makar and Devon Toews. We will go as far as saying two likely candidates at the top-pair for Team Canada’s best-on-best lineup. Or perhaps look at the Edmonton Oilers and their top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard. Adding Ekholm has really extenuated the emergence and development of Bouchard as a star on the blueline in the NHL.

Justifying Chabot’s Number Analysis

If we analyze Thomas Chabot’s annual top pair by minutes, we see an interesting trend. Overall, despite the inconsistency of who his partner is, he has been able to increase his xGoals% throughout his career. Over the past two seasons, Chabot has played around 400 minutes with an xGoals% of 54 with two very different partners. In fact, he was delegated to the right-side for the first time in his career in 2023-24 with Jakob Chychrun. However, he still spent a good portion of the season on his traditional left-side with the also recently departed Erik Brannstrom.

Have a mobile defence partner like Jensen, gives Chabot the opportunity to really excel. Studying a similar type defender, we could consider the chemistry between Chabot and Dylan DeMelo. The 2018-19 season was a strong one for Chabot, and DeMelo was the type of mobile, defensive-defenceman that seems to work so easily with Chabot. It was identified early, and it really is a mystery and a bit of a sign of a lack of accountability by the previous management regime that he was not given a defenceman of Jensen’s skillset and ability since DeMelo. Can anyone say Cody Ceci?

Chabot’s Past Defence Partners

Year Partner Ice Time xG% Chabot PPG
23-24 Jakob Chychrun 345.3 53.4% 0.59
22-23 Artem Zub 468.3 54.7% 0.60
21-22 Artem Zub 441.1 52.6% 0.64
20-21 Nikita Zaitsev 767.6 47.1% 0.63
19-20 Ron Hainsey 593 49.6% 0.55
18-19 Dylan DeMelo 774.8 50.5% 0.79
17-18 Erik Karlsson 400.1 50.6% 0.40

With a partner that really complements his skillset in 2024-25, it is possible Chabot hits career-highs in analytical takes such as xGoals%. If we go in-depth and explore the past three-year averages of both Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen, we do see evidence of the two possessing complementary skillsets. It is not a definite that Jensen works with Chabot, but if the two play most of the time on 5v5 with one another, the potential is there for a solid defence pair. The key to the pairing working could be highly-dependent on the two connecting based on the mobility and quick first passes of Jensen.

Reviewing Recent Stats of Chabot and Jensen

From top down, stats from 2023-24 through 2021-22 shown below in the chart.

Thomas Chabot

GP G A Pts TOI CF% Rel Hits
51 9 21 30 23:03 6.3 44
68 11 30 41 24:58 11.2 79
59 7 31 38 26:12 13.3 73
Nick Jensen
78 1 13 14 19:38 -12.9 123
77 5 24 29 20:37 -8.5 128
76 5 16 21 19:21 -8.3 92

One thing to never question about Chabot, is that the dude is a horse. Let me rephrase that, the man is a workhorse. He never panics with the puck. There’s traits there for Chabot that make him a champion. We will see it come to fruition in Ottawa? Or will the presence of Jake Sanderson somehow overshadow his truly legendary performance. That is to say, if the Ottawa Senators can overcome adversity and go deep in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Main photo: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

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