One thing is for sure, if the Ottawa Senators are going to get a sniff at the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, their bottom-six needs to go from a weakness to a strength. Plain and simple, you need to have guys who step-in to produce. For example, let’s take a look at the bottom-eight forwards in Ottawa Senators scoring in 2023-24. This list of 4th liners for the Ottawa Senators included guys like Rourke Chartier, Jiri Smejkal, and Angus Crookshank, among others. They combined for a miniscule 14 points in 127 games totaled. It might be the opposite end of the spectrum, but compare to the Dallas Stars. Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin found themselves playing together on the third line in 2023-24. They had 65 and 52 points, respectively. So, how can they expect to compete against playoff teams, when they get so badly outplayed.
How Do We Build the Ottawa Senators 1st Through 4th Forward Lines
In order to determine who’s available for the Ottawa Senators 4th line, we can quickly touch on the top two lines. It’s not a perfect science, but assuming the 2023-24 lines succeed, we can knock off the top two lines. Now a word of caution, and why we say it is not a perfect science, is because year-over-year, line combinations don’t always carry over equivalent success.
First and Foremost, the Top-Six is Very Good
The main example from 2022-23 to 2023-24, was the Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Claude Giroux line. Yes, they may have been impacted by Stutzle being banged up, and Giroux negatively regressing. However, according to moneypuck, their xGoals% as a line went from 59.9 to 53.0. But it helped that the new lines from 2023-24 did pick up the pace. Tkachuk, along with Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson were 56.6. Also, the Stutzle, Giroux, and Mathieu Joseph line managed a rating of 54.0. In any sense, even the top lines weren’t good enough for long enough to make the Sens a competitive team in the Eastern Conference playoff race. As a sidebar, Pinto’s emergence as sure fire top-six guy was very evident in 2023-24.
Norris and Greig on the 3rd Line Exciting Possibilities
So, if we decide to go with those lines from 2023-24 into 2024-25, we have a couple potential top-six guys leftover for the third line. This is a huge deal, when you think of teams like the Stars or the Toronto Maple Leafs with a Max Domi, this is the calibre of third liners of playoff contenders. Therefore, those two players on the Sens roster available for the third line are Ridly Greig and a rested Joshua Norris.
Due to injuries, going back to the start of the 2020-21 season, Norris has only played 180 NHL games. They have been productive games as he’s scored 70 times, but this Sens group needs him in the lineup. Regardless, having him come in in a third line role should help shelter him from pressure and tougher defensive assignments. If he can play with a guy like Greig, they can help each other too, whether on faceoffs, offensively, or on the backcheck. Having two responsible players like that, will be a huge advantage.
Now, like Tkachuk can for Stutzle, they will need someone to protect them. This is where Zack Ostapchuk comes in. We know he won’t back down and has nice hands around the net. He has shown a scoring touch in the past with 31 goals in his last year of juniors. In addition, he had 17 this year for the Belleville Senators, the Sens AHL affiliate. The one potential downside to Ostapchuk, but only in terms of timing, is he may need more development time in the AHL. And the Sens need someone for October 2024. There are some internal options, such as Crookshank, Roby Jarventie, or Mark Kastelic, but point is, someone needs to step up, and produce in that role. The other option is, of course, external. This is where adding a veteran, two-way guy to the middle six really gives the Sens more options.
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One more internal option, and given his emergence this season, is Stephen Halliday. Someone like Tyler Boucher is also a possibility, but Halliday seemed to outproduce Boucher. Albeit a small sample size, but the Sens need a third liner to produce. The key is that the Senators depth plays with an identity. They need to be pesky to play against. Moreover, they need to chip in offensively more regularly, be physical or at least block shots, and above all, responsible defensively.
Now Let’s Dig In on the Ottawa Senators 4th Line
Here our primary focus is on internal options. And on Kastelic, he is better suited as the fourth line centre. So, we will pencil him in there, as well as Ostapchuk on the third line. The fourth line just needs to be reliable. We actually saw down the stretch of 2023-24, these guys do well. Kastelic, Kelly, and Boris Katchouk had good ends to their campaigns. Katchouk is an RFA, who we might see come back given his success after coming over around the trade deadline off waivers from the Chicago Blackhawks.
Two players we don’t anticipate coming back are Dominik Kubalik and Jiri Smejkal. Kubalik didn’t take advantage of his time in Ottawa in 2023-24 and had poor analytics to show. His CF% Rel of -0.8 is poor for an offensive player, with an oSZ% of 52. He did score 11 goals, which was one of his lone personal bright spots. But when you consider all the second unit power play time he was afforded, even that isn’t impressive. And Smejkal showed some chemistry with Kubalik early on, but he spent the year in Belleville mostly. Someone coming from Europe to play in Belleville, wouldn’t sit to well. Unless he likes his role with the affiliate, don’t look for the Sens to keep him either.
Ultimately, the Coach and GM Need to be Accountable
Other than that, unlike 2023-24, it is up to the players who are given opportunity to step up. Or if Travis Green and Steve Staios don’t think internally the answer is there, and there’s enough time and money to get it done, bring someone in during the offseason. It also depends on a couple other factors as well, whether they go internally or externally. Will there be injuries, and the ability to rely upon the LTIR cap relief space? The point of the GM being accountable is when injuries do occur, and they will, stepping up and filling roles with suitable pieces. Last season, internal pieces tried unsuccessfully to fill-in. However, if you want to contend for the playoffs, there isn’t time mid-season to let players figure it out on their own.
Freeing up Cap Space, so 3rd Liners Can Play the 4th Line for the Ottawa Senators
The cap is going up, but they need to find money for Shane Pinto, as he’s currently an unsigned RFA. If they want to look externally, perhaps an Anthony Duclair, Adam Henrique, or trying to get Vladimir Tarasenko back is an option. It is really going to depend on some little moves to see how much there is to spend. Kubalik, along with Erik Brannstrom are two of those important decisions, purely based on the 2023-24 salaries. Is it time to consider moving on from Anton Forsberg, and bringing in Mads Sogaard, and saving a few more dollars there? Given Sogaard’s status as waiver-exempt still, maybe hold off until we see how Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo are performing.
In terms of salary cap space, what will it mean for the Ottawa Senators 3rd and 4th lines? If it means the difference between a free agent addition to this lineup, it will be something to consider. Even though it was Pierre Dorion’s doing, having Alex DeBrincat and then Tarasenko in the lineup that past two seasons, really helped fill out the forward group. But is that money better spent on a top-four, right shot defenceman? That’s for Steve Staios to decide over the next four months or so. It is unlikely that whoever the Sens decide to take at seven in the 2024 NHL entry draft will make an instant impact. Therefore, they need to focus on rounding out the roster, and when players falter, having the quick decision making and accountability to the players and organization, to make it right.
Main photo: Marc DesRosiers USA TODAY Sports
