The Ottawa Senators need to load up their top line. The Senators seem concerned with balancing their lines, but this takes away from their top line. In order for their best players to reach their peak heights, they need to be playing with one another. Also, this carries over to the top power play and will give them much better rhythm. Let’s take a look at a proposed top line, and how it can benefit the entire lineup.
The Ottawa Senators Top Line Needs to Dominate
This discussion on the Senators top line choice is surrounded with the premise that the 2024-25 Ottawa Senators will be a playoff team. One more ideology to consider is to not spread the scoring too thin. For example, the third line should be focused on checking. It isn’t required to be another scoring line. They just need to shut down their opponent and outscore them. Ideally, they don’t need to score much to achieve that target if they are an effective shutdown line.
Here’s how the Senators forwards can be classified, in terms of top-line candidates:
TOP: Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk
SECOND TIER: Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux, Joshua Norris
DEPTH OPTIONS: Ridly Greig, Mathieu Joseph
A Proposed Ottawa Senators Top Line of Tkachuk, Stutzle, Joseph
For the purpose of this article, we shall propose a top line of Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Mathieu Joseph. Stutzle and Joseph have utilized their collective speed and teamed up well this year. When combined with Claude Giroux, their line has an xGoals% of 54.1 through 33 games skated together. The Stutzle and Tkachuk combination has not been quite as effective. Case in point, when they have been with Giroux, the line is at 51.3%. However, that combo was quite dominant in 2022-23, with a 59.9% rating. Heading into 2024-25, with Giroux’s career progression, he will be better suited for a reduced, specialist-type role, focusing on faceoffs and power plays.
If we consider the Senators top projected point producers for 2024-25, their top end could be improved. Especially when you consider the opponents they face within their own division like Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, or Matthew Tkachuk. Furthermore, the goal should be to get your top scorers producing. Heading into October 2024, players that we should expect big offensive seasons out of will be Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson, and Tim Stutzle. Their respective PPG in 2023-24 versus (career) are:
| Stutzle | 0.96 (0.87) |
| Tkachuk | 0.86 (0.78) |
| Pinto | 0.77 (0.50) |
| Batherson | 0.76 (0.71) |
There are other candidates for the role, but by pairing Tkachuk and Stutzle, you are asserting this as a clear top unit. Taking advantage of his speed, and chemistry with Stu, having Joseph is a great addition. This allows for the scoring depth throughout the three lines that is always a focus. Conversely, with names like Pinto and Greig available, creating a shutdown line is an option too.
Reviewing the Details Behind Our Decision
Before we go all-in on the Brady, Stu, Matty Jo comb, let’s weigh some of the potential cons. There is a possible disadvantage in the types of players they are collectively. This alignment would lack a true shooter, a pure playmaker, and also a right shot. However, Brady can push out to the bumper, and gain confidence as a shooter. He has a hard shot, skilled, and is not afraid to shoot. This is reflected in his Expected Goals rating of 32.3, good for tied ninth in the NHL. Furthermore, even though Joseph lacks the high-level skill to be defined as a dominant scorer, he can get the job done. He can retrieve rebounds kicked to the corners from Tkachuk’s low-hard, slot shots.
In terms of a pure playmaker, Stutzle commands the ice with his skill and speed. This invariably opens his teammates up, so even if he may not be a traditional playmaker, he creates and can pass. Both Joseph and Tkachuk are hard on their stick and can finish off those rocket, cross-crease passes.
A Potential Dream Team Line
There are also other options to consider over Joseph. Batherson is another candidate to complete a proposed top line being on the right flank of Stu and Brady. He brings lots of positives. He has great hands in tight, and soft touch with his passing game. In addition, he brings size and can help play a high-energy, physical game, alongside Brady.
A line of Stu, Brady, and Bathman would be very effective. Furthermore, this line saw time together in 2022-23 with some success, through 61 games, and a xGoals% of 54. In fact, the main argument for not having this line together is Joseph. Joseph you would anticipate having a bigger, more advantageous dislocation in point production playing on this line, than would Batherson. For example, if Joseph were down on the third line, we might see a repeat of his 22-23 PPG at 0.32 (this year he is at 0.54). Therefore, Batherson’s skills can be used to boost offensive productivity elsewhere throughout the lineup.
A Reliable Shot at Success
Shane Pinto would be another candidate to consider in loading up a top line. Playing with Stutzle, he would take the pressure off for taking important faceoffs. Being the opposite shot, it would add an element, for not only faceoffs but also the offensive attack. He can shoot as well with a career 11.1 shooting percentage and would use his size to support Brady in puck retrieval. The thinking has been that Pinto would provide excellent secondary offence, which he has done. In contrast, just imagine utilizing his abilities to load up the top line. It does lead to exciting prospects.
Finding a Second Shot
One final name to discuss is Josh Norris. Trying to get over his injury troubles, maybe the insulation of playing with two superstars would be perfect. He can focus on getting open and using his shot that scored him 35 goals previously for Ottawa. Additionally, playing on a line with Brady means you don’t have to be overly physical, since he takes care of that aspect. It is an interesting prospect, but Norris will probably be better suited for a reduced role. Until Norris can prove his injury problems are a thing of the past, playing 75+ games as a third-liner, would be a reasonable expectation.
Of course, there are no perfect answers, but loading up a top line as much as possible is an exciting endeavour. We started building this perfect line by pairing up the Senators two best forwards. Next, we explored options to go with them. We seemed like we ended up on, perhaps not the next best forward, but took a leap. We landed on someone with proven chemistry, and most importantly, who’s skills are most boosted by this role. Other players would be strong candidates to drive offence well from other roles within the lineup, like Pinto or Batherson.
Main photo: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
