The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series looking at potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Chris Tanev of the Calgary Flames. He will be one of the top defencemen on the market at the trade deadline.
Disclaimer: The players featured in these articles aren’t always linked to the Lightning but have been made available in some capacity this season. These pieces are observing whether Tampa Bay should target them and the cost if they did.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Chris Tanev
The context around Chris Tanev’s availability is identical to Noah Hanifin, who we covered in the last trade target article. The Flames are not the same team we saw during the 2021-22 season. The team has fallen off a cliff without Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. Like many on the roster, Tanev had his most productive season in 2022 with the Flames. He recorded a career-best six goals and 28 points in 82 games.
While Tanev is not known for his offensive abilities, he has never recorded more than 20 points in a season outside his career-best. This season, Tanev has one goal and 11 assists for 12 points in 51 games. Moreover, he is on pace for 17 points in 77 games. At 34 years old, Tanev is the oldest defencemen target we have covered. The Flames want to give Tanev a shot at the cup with a contending team. So why would the Lightning be interested in this veteran defenceman at the trade deadline?
Tanev Scouting Report
After going undrafted, Tanev signed as an unrestricted free agent with the Vancouver Canucks in 2010. Since he inked pen to paper, Tanev has carved out a solid 14-year career in the NHL. Tanev spent a decade with the Canucks organization before signing in Calgary as a free agent in 2020. He is in the final year of his four-year, $18 million deal with the Flames. In 768 career games, Tanev has 32 goals and 151 assists for 183 points.
Tanev is a grizzled defender with exceptional stick-checking abilities, sound positioning, and a high hockey IQ. Not known as a point producer, Tanev is very impactful for his age. At 34, Tanev remains a stable second-pairing defenceman who can play against opponents’ top lines. Despite his age and health questions, Tanev offers an intriguing upside in Jon Cooper’s system down the stretch.
Tanev’s Strengths
While Tanev is known for his superb defending skills, few know him for his elite defensive zone retrievals and exits. All Three Zones explores Tanev’s performance on the breakout deeper. Tanev ranks in the 99th percentile of defensive zone retrievals leading to exits per hour among all defencemen this season. Furthermore, he places in the 95th percentile of defensive zone exits with possession per 60. Whenever Tanev retrieves the puck, he uses his strength and hockey IQ to find the forwards streaking up the ice. While Tanev is not an elite skater, he uses his other attributes to establish himself as forecheck-proof.
From our microstats tracking project for the Lightning here at Last Word, we identified that the Lightning frequently turnover the puck in the defensive zone. For example, Nicklaus Perbix has 15 defensive zone giveaways on 104 defensive zone puck touches, a 14.42 giveaway percentage. Before his injury, Mikhail Sergachev recorded 17 defensive zone giveaways on 87 touches, a 19.54 giveaway percentage. Tanev offers a settling presence on the back end. He is not careless with his touches and can help bolster the Lightning in transition come playoff time. However, what are the potential risks of acquiring Tanev?
The Concerns For Tanev
While all the other defencemen we covered seemed like a fantastic idea on paper, Tanev does not quite fit that trend. A 34-year-old defenceman with a repeated injury history and an expiring contract is not enticing for any front office. Julien BriseBois is willing to maximize the $8.5 million he has available to spend due to Sergachev’s injury. However, will he spend that money on a veteran rental piece? What is the cost for Tanev’s services at the trade deadline? The Lightning are very thin on draft picks and prospects as we speak. Forfeiting more future assets for rentals with question marks may not be a wise move by BriseBois. Tanev plays a heavy game and will not have much gas in the tank left after this season. After all, Tanev offers the lowest long-term upside out of all the targets we have covered. However, if the Lightning were to make an offer for Tanev, what would a potential deal look like?
What It Would (Likely) Take To Acquire Hanifin
The Lightning are scarce on trade-worthy assets to offer Calgary in a potential Tanev trade. However, the Flames are asking for a second-round pick and another asset in return for Tanev, per Pierre LeBrun. An identical price tag to Tanev’s came from a trade during the 2022 trade deadline. The Edmonton Oilers acquired Brett Kulak in exchange for William Laggeson, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2024 seventh-round pick. Tanev and Kulak play a similar style and block an abundance of shots. Furthermore, the second-round pick is the core of the return, which is Tanev’s asking price. Below is a hypothetical trade offer BriseBois can offer up for Tanev.
Tampa Bay acquires: Chris Tanev (D)
Calgary acquires: 2025 second-round pick, 2024 seventh-round pick, Alex Barré-Boulet (F)
How Both Sides Benefit From the Trade
The Lightning are without one of their best defenceman to close the season. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman are not getting younger. Time is running out for the Lightning to compete for a third Stanley Cup with this core. The Bolts franchise should not hesitate to go all-in for the guys who brought Lord Stanley home twice. From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Tanev helps them reach that goal of a third Stanley Cup. He can play on any defence pairing and the penalty kill. From Calgary’s perspective, they receive their asking price for a 34-year-old defenceman on an expiring deal. Plus, they recuperate assets instead of losing Tanev for free. Lastly, Alex-Barré-Boulet offers upside as an everyday player on the Flames roster one day. His offensive skills and upside are untouched at this point, but a change in scenery may be the difference. The Lightning find a (temporary) replacement for Sergachev while the Flames move an expiring veteran for assets.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Tanev
Tanev is the most bipolar defensive trade target we have covered for the Lightning. He is an elite shutdown defender, a puck-moving specialist, and a physical veteran presence. His services would be impactful to the Lightning roster. On the other hand, he is a 34-year-old with injury problems. Tanev is one ugly play away from injury and a waste of assets. We would hate to see the Lightning suffer another significant blow on the back end.
Remember, the Lightning have the right side locked for next season with Erik Cernak, Darren Raddysh, and Perbix. All three defenders still have room for growth in their careers as well. Adding Tanev will create a log jam on the right side. With the trade deadline approaching fast, the Lightning must decide whether they are all in or out. The worst scenario would be the Lightning overpaying for minor pieces that do not push the needle. Tampa Bay should either make a big splash or stay far away from the phone. While acquiring Tanev will not be expensive, the Lightning must focus on middle-six scoring.
Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones (paid subscription required)
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & EvolvingHockey
Lightning tracked stats via Last Word (Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta)
Main Photo: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
