The Ottawa Senators fourth liner Parker Kelly can get mixed reactions from the loyal fan base. Some look at him as a physical fourth-line player, who can kill penalties. In other words, an asset to the lineup. Yet, others perceive him as an underachiever, lacking the skill set to be an NHL regular, especially on a playoff-calibre team. Maybe lacking isn’t the right word, as it is likely an ineptitude to finish and bear down in the offensive zone. In any sense, Senators management will have to decide what to do with him in the offseason.
Will the Ottawa Senators Re-Sign Parker Kelly?
Parker Kelly will see his contract expire at the end of the 2023-24 season with the Ottawa Senators. Therefore, we have the debate of whether or not he is worth bringing back. Currently, he is making $775K and will have RFA and arbitration rights on the expiry of his contract. The thinking is that he hasn’t done much to earn a substantial (or any for that matter) raise. A look at his statistics can verify that mindset.
A Statistical Overview
A review of Parker Kelly’s statistics leaves much to the imagination. But, we will say he does seem to be trending positively. This year through 48 games played, Kelly has six goals and six assists. This total of 12 points is good for 14th on the club in scoring. Note that his career highs are seven goals and 12 points, but he has never played more than 55 games in an NHL campaign. He is a career 9.4% shooter, which was deflated from last year’s dismal 1.7%. Granted, he doesn’t shoot very often, but shooting is a great way to generate goals. He also has a CF% Rel of -5.6 which would be somewhat influenced by his time playing shorthanded. Moreover, he has 38 blocks and is second on the team in hits with 106.
Explanation on Parker Kelly’s Lack of Production for the Ottawa Senators
One explanation for his lack of production is his lack of opportunity. It is difficult to build offensive rhythm or confidence when given few opportunities. He rarely gets to play with offensively skilled teammates or more directly on the power play. His total ice time is basically the second lowest on the team at 11:24 (only Rourke Chartier was playing less). Additionally, Kelly’s on-ice expected goals % of 40.8 was also second lowest again ahead of Chartier.
Now with all these poor offensive numbers, there are some positives to find. Even though Kelly hasn’t played much with set lines, he has found some success. The line he played the most with was with Chartier and Mark Kastelic. All three, maybe with the exception of Kastelic slightly, really are the type of players that struggle to generate offence. They require offensively gifted players in order to generate offence. None of the three of them can really generate offence on their own. However, the line was able to achieve a 50 xGoals %. That is a fair value for a fourth line, but they just haven’t been able to turn the number into direct production. Again, this could be placed on the lack of opportunity. Besides that fact, the bottom six have been susceptible to turnover night to night so again making it tough to generate rhythm. As a result, the checking line does lack identity.
What Does This All Mean for Parker Kelly and His Future with the Ottawa Senators
It is a catch-22 really, that Parker Kelly and Ottawa Senators fourth line cannot create an identity. How can they when they aren’t given enough opportunity? But does their play warrant more opportunity? Look at teams like the Seattle Kraken or the Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights. The identities of their fourth lines have been significant. They are regular and productive and can be relied upon, in Vegas’ example, to go up against other teams’ top lines. In addition, Kelly needs to produce more offensively. If his line is cycling the puck in the O-zone, it will increase their effectiveness as a shutdown unit and their overall reliability. Kelly would benefit from a more consistent and an offensively-minded linemate too. This becomes a team problem when the Sens continue to search for answers. Ultimately, they need to decide where Kelly fits into their plans.
Main photo: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
