The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Andrei Kuzmenko of the Calgary Flames.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Andrei Kuzmenko
Kuzmenko, a Russian forward who was signed out of the KHL before last season, is an interesting candidate for the Lightning. For one, he was already traded! The Canucks, who had initially signed Kuzmenko prior to last season and subsequently extended him, dealt him to the Flames yesterday (at the time of writing). He was a small part of a big package that sent Elias Lindholm to Vancouver. So, why would he be on the radar?
For one, Kuzmenko had a phenomenal season last year. That came in the form of 74 points (39 goals and 35 assists). Additionally, only 19 of those points came on the man advantage, showing his efficiency at five-on-five. However, a coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Rick Tocchet hurt Kuzmenko in a big way. Boudreau is known as a player-friendly coach, who allowed Kuzmenko to play his game to its fullest potential. However, Tocchet is significantly harder on the players, and thus the freedom Kuzmenko had been playing with was no longer awarded to him. Thus, the 27-year-old winger has just 21 points (eight goals and 13 assists) in 43 games. He is playing with little confidence at this point, and Calgary could view him as someone to flip for additional assets. Will they? The hockey world will find out soon enough. But it is a possibility.
Kuzmenko Scouting Report
As a player who nearly scored 40 goals in his debut season (albeit at 26), his shot is something to marvel at. He has a quick release, tons of power, and incredible accuracy on his shots. Plus, he scores in a variety of ways. Kuzmenko, in games this season, has been seen getting to the net front every now and again and has a knack for good tip-ins. Of his eight goals, two of them were deflections at the net front. Additionally, he has proven to be a solid transitional player, moreso setting up entries than actually generating them himself. Then, once he sets it up, he will drive the net hard looking for a return pass, a one-timer, or a deflection. With that style, half of his eight goals have come off the rush.
With his goal-scoring tendencies, there’s no questioning the upside he possesses. However, he runs hot and cold. Not to mention, he had a 27.3% shooting percentage, which is absurdly high and incomprehensibly difficult to maintain over the course of multiple seasons. Regression wasn’t just projected, it was fully expected. But the degree of which he has fallen this season wasn’t. A player that runs hot and cold usually runs at their coldest when they lack confidence. Kuzmenko is at that stage of lacking a lot of confidence.
Kuzmenko’s Strengths
Not to sound like a broken record, but Kuzmenko’s goal-scoring is so high-end. He can score from anywhere, in a variety of ways. He’s also pretty sporadic with how he attacks in the offensive zone away from the puck, which makes him a bit difficult to defend at times as well. Essentially, it is easy to lose him in the mix. Kuzmenko understands how to support the puck from the tops of the circle and high slot area, providing a nice and easy outlet feed when needed. But he also can be seen popping out to the half-wall for a one-timer. Additionally, as mentioned, he can be found often as a screen in front of the net.
Additionally, Kuzmenko’s ability off the rush as a goal-scorer is needed. In three recent games, the Lightning have been out-shot by opponents in rush shots generated, by a deficit of 28-20. That includes their January 11th game against New Jersey, where they were out-shot in that area 14-0. Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Nick Paul, and Michael Eyssimont are tied for the team lead in those aforementioned three games with three rush shots of their own. Adding Kuzmenko’s shooting ability off the rush into the mix could add an element to the Lightning where they are currently lacking.
The Concerns For Kuzmenko
The consistency is arguably the biggest concern in regards to Kuzmenko. That, and his confidence, for all the same reasons mentioned before. But there’s more. Kuzmenko’s fall from grace came when a tougher coach came in and implemented a system that didn’t allow Kuzmenko to flash. While that in and of itself isn’t a Kuzmenko problem, the fact he fell out of favour in Vancouver so fast is. Even with his game tempered down, Kuzmenko can be far too casual with the puck, making head-scratching turnovers. It is quite similar to some situations with Kucherov, where he will attempt something very difficult that does not work, and even if it did, would not have done enough to justify the mistake.
Additionally, sticking with the Kucherov comparison, Kuzmenko isn’t the fastest player. While Kucherov negates being a non-elite skater with an immaculate hockey sense, Kuzmenko doesn’t have nearly the raw skills and hockey sense that Kucherov does. Thus, having another version of Kucherov, minus the high-end raw skills and smarts, could equate to some real issues with puck control and possession time for Tampa Bay. Which, for those wondering, is a key trait of every line except the first line. But that’s because Point and Kucherov don’t need much possession to inflict damage. Thus, he may not work cleanly with someone like Anthony Cirelli or someone else in the middle-six for Tampa. But pairing him with Kucherov could lead to very negative defensive value and mistakes.
What It Would (Likely) Take To Andrei Kuzmenko
The situation that Kuzmenko is in is one that is not often seen. He isn’t an old player with very little time left, on a downward trajectory. He’s still young and inexperienced, albeit older than the average “inexperienced” player. But he has potential, call it a reclamation project. That said, Last Word spoke to a few sources. One of which was our very own Erin Butler. It didn’t matter who was asked, the answer was the same: Kuzmenko isn’t going to be a draw for a team. In fact, one could consider him a negative asset, one that could be attached with a draft pick to move.
However, the Lightning would likely ask for salary retention. With Calgary unlikely to want to eat much, it would also include a third team. That salary retention could draw an asset from Tampa, and Calgary may even give up a mid-round pick to the third team to help retain some of that salary as well. One of those teams could be the Chicago Blackhawks. Here’s what that trade could look like:
Tampa Bay receives Andrei Kuzmenko (50% retained)
Calgary retains 25% of Kuzmenko’s deal, receives a 2024 5th-round pick (Tampa Bay)
Chicago retains 25% of Kuzmenko’s deal, receives Alex Barre-Boulet, Connor Sheary, 2024 5th round pick (from Calgary, originally Chicago’s own).
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Kuzmenko
It is incredibly unlikely to happen, but not completely out of the picture. The scoring upside is intriguing, and his play last season was phenomenal. That sort of potential on a lineup with the stars the Lightning possess could be outstanding. But, the performance from Kuzmenko this season has been completely underwhelming, which has led to him being a healthy scratch. The loss of all his trade value also deflates the tires of a potential trade. Any new deal with Kuzmenko will likely be to shed his contract, not to receive assets.
That said, Calgary is surely aware of all the upside Kuzmenko possesses. With Jonathan Huberdeau, a superb playmaker, having his own struggles out there, they could use Kuzmenko as a boost for Huberdeau. That said, if they hit it off together, they could return to being a playoff-level team. If not, they could at least try to rebuild his value for a trade next deadline. However, if he is available, at a cost as low as it’s seemingly going to be, then the Lightning should take a look. The scoring potential is there, and enticing, at a reduced salary. Could be an interesting Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline move.
Raw stats and per-game stats via Hockey-Reference
Main Photo: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
