Today’s NHL predictions features a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. The Carolina Hurricanes will look to bring the storm to South Florida and seek some revenge from last postseason. The Hurricanes are riding a two-game win streak of back-to-back overtime victories against the New York Islanders and Buffalo Sabres. The Hurricanes sit near the top of the Metropolitan Division even though they have only recently seemed to have settled into their game. While their overall record is 8-5, they are 5-1 in their last six.
The Panthers are coming off of an overtime victory as well over the Washington Capitals. It was a quick one as Sam Reinhart scored off of a nice stretch pass from Aleksander Barkov only seconds into overtime. Like Carolina, Florida has been settling into its game as well. They sit in a comfortable position in the Atlantic Division with a record of 7-4-1.
This is the first time the two teams meet this season and even though both have some new and missing faces, they are largely the same teams we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals. Here are three keys for Carolina to quiet the Cats.
NHL Predictions: Carolina vs. Florida
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
Get to the Net and Clean Up the Trash
Carolina will certainly look to keep up the momentum they are currently riding. And part of that includes finding ways to put the puck in the net. Really for any team, but especially for a team that likes to utilize shots from the point, getting to the net for tips, rebounds and close-in shots can be a game-changer. Carolina only has two rebound goals this year compared to four rebound goals against. Meanwhile, Florida is at the top of the pack with eight rebound goals and four against.
It is interesting to see where Carolina is finding its production this season. Looking at the shot and goal charts from hockeyviz.com, at 5v5, their offence generation is almost solely on the sides of the perimeter as seen below.
However, on the power play, their chance generation is more heavily weighted tight around the net.
Taking all situations into consideration, their finishing comes heaviest from the points and top of the circles with a second heaviest in tight.
The middle of the offensive zone seems to be where the Hurricanes refuse to generate chances, but it sort of makes sense. They generate from the points and close to the net and those two complement each other. The more they can get to the net the better. Players like Michael Bunting, Stefan Noesen and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have excelled in these roles and will look to continue that trend. Tips, backdoor passes and, arguably more importantly, rebounds are going to be key to beating the talents of Sergei Bobrovsky.
At 5v5 and on the power play Florida generates a lot of chances close to the goal.
Just as important as getting to the net offensively is Carolina defending around their own net. Carolina’s goalie will need support around the net when it comes to “cleaning up the trash.” With a team like Florida who has found a way to get a large share of rebound goals, clearing out the crease and picking up rebounds will be key.
Defence Keeping Its Groove
The Hurricanes started the season with arguably the deepest defensive group in the league on paper. However, the season started and that couldn’t have looked further from the truth. Through the first six games, the Hurricanes were the worst in the league in goals against and goals against per sixty minutes. Meanwhile, their expected goals against was 20.65 while their goals against above expected was a league-worst 9.35. Brent Burns looked a little rusty and newcomer Dmitry Orlov seemed to be struggling to adjust early. Not to mention he was playing a lot with Anthony DeAngelo who is not exactly a defensive stalwart.
Since then, they have worked their way up to tied for 25th in goals against with 44 and 21st in goals against per game with 3.38. It took a while but the team looks like it has settled back into its identity and a Rod Brind’Amour defensively responsible style game. In their last six games, they have allowed two or fewer goals in every game except for the 4-3 OT win against the Islanders. This also included a shutout performance against the San Jose Sharks.
The entire team, but especially the defence, appears to have settled into their structure with much better play as of late. Even with Brett Pesce out, the defence has found a little more rhythm to its game. Orlov appears to be adjusting to Carolina’s style while Brady Skjei has been a consistent presence in the top-four. It will be key for Carolina’s defence to continue this trend against a Florida team that can be deadly up front.
Next Man Up in Net
While the big recent news surrounding Carolina involves losing starting goaltender Frederik Andersen, this also presents opportunity for others. Raanta has been solid in net the last two games and posted a shutout against San Jose. Carolina reportedly has been looking around at options for additional depth here. However, they did sign veteran goaltender Jaroslav Halak to a PTO and recalled Pyotr Kochetkov from the AHL. Kochetkov has been very solid this year in the AHL. When he is on his game, he can compete with almost anyone. But he has to find consistency to his game. Meanwhile, Halak is a well-traveled veteran who could step in for a few games if needed. While it’s unlikely he’s going to jump in and become a Vezina candidate, he can provide some stability in net when needed.
Anticipate seeing at least two of the three in net soon as Carolina will play back-to-back against Florida and then the Tampa Bay Lightning. Regardless of who is in net, the team should play its game the same and have trust in the netminder. Each of the three have the ability to hold their own. And now they have a larger opportunity to do so. Just like losing any other key player, it’s a next-man-up mentality. The next goalie needs to be ready for the task while the team needs to rally around him as well.
Prediction Time
No game in the NHL is an easy one. And this is no different. It’s two teams starting to find their groove from last season looking to stay in the win column. Both coming off of dramatic overtime victories and both remember the Eastern Conference Finals last year. However, Carolina comes to South Florida with a sour taste in their mouth. Nightmares of Matthew Tkachuk and Bobrovsky still haunt the Hurricanes. Carolina will need to get to their game, play to their strengths and keep up the pressure on a talented Panthers team. If they can get to the net, keep their defensive structure and lean on some solid goaltending, expect to see a great game from the Hurricanes.
Prediction: Carolina wins 3-1
Main Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
