The Ottawa Senators have lots of topics to make some predictions for the upcoming 2023-24 season. After the latest and last preseason contest, dropping a 6-4 affair to the Montreal Canadiens, the picture is clearer. Right from the announcement of the new owner, Michael Andlauer, there was a feeling of stability but that is at a long-term level. For the short term, it seems General Manager Pierre Dorion has his work cut out for him. First, he needs to decide how long ahead Coach D.J. Smith will keep his job if things go south. Secondly, there is the ongoing Joshua Norris dilemma. Then, this ties in with re-signing Shane Pinto and the requirement of necessary cap space. And finally, a look into the crystal ball, of whether the Senators will qualify for the 2023-24 postseason. Read along for more on these topics, and what’s in store for the Ottawa Senators.
The Ottawa Senators 2023-24 Predictions
There are a lot of moving parts to provide adequate predictions for the 2023-24 Ottawa Senators. Having Andlauer in place will create long-term stability. However, what about the short term? So far he has solidified the analytics department with the club, bringing in Sean Tierney. Next, he hired a President of Hockey Operations electing for Steve Staios. Staios had previously operated under Andlauer as President of the Hamilton Bulldogs of the OHL. These moves will help support, bring accountability, and improve the overall processes for GM Pierre Dorion. The GM will get some time to show he is well suited for the role under the new regime. Hopefully, coach Smith and the Sens can perform on the ice.
How is Josh Norris?
For the on-ice product, let’s begin the discussion with Josh Norris. Not much has changed at this point. Most recently, Smith has suggested that it is somewhat of a mental hurdle. Either way, he hasn’t played much hockey since the 2021-22 season wrapped up. Having played no games here in the preseason does suggest he’s not ready. Therefore, Norris being placed on LTIR appears to make the most sense at this point. On the other hand, he’s going to need to step into live-game action now. So, it is essentially up to the player. It would be unlikely, despite how much it potentially benefits the team that Norris wants to go on LTIR. If he does, he would need to miss at least 10 games. This benefits the team as it clears a bit of space.
The Continued Shane Pinto RFA Contract Status Saga
So why does clearing cap space benefit the team? To sign centre Shane Pinto. It’s very difficult to blame Pinto in this situation, as he wants what he deserves. This really boils down to a team problem and will require a team solution. Finding that team solution falls onto the shoulders of Dorion. Dorion took on the contracts of Dominik Kubalik, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Joonas Korpisalo in the off-season. Also, signing contracts that were smaller but necessary to fill out roster spots, such as Travis Hamonic, Erik Brannstrom, or Zack MacEwen. When it comes down to it, Dorion does not currently have enough cap space to sign Pinto. However, it does appear that he has taken a wait-and-see approach. In the fast-paced hockey world, this is rarely acceptable to fans. Ultimately, at this point, Dorion needs to answer to people like Staois, and not appeal to the fan base. Of course, at some point, these decisions become very intertwined if the on-ice product is not performing. That is where we find ourselves at this stage.
Playoffs…Playoffs?
In terms of the 2023-24 outlook for the Senators, things are looking up concerning predictions for a post-season appearance. Now, nothing is a lock, and most betting sources put the probability at around 50-50, siding with the Senators missing out. In any case, the Senators should, in all likelihood, find themselves battling it out for a wild card position. Their power play is very lethal, as was witnessed last season, and no reason to doubt a repeat performance. They finished second in goals with 72 and eighth in percentage at 23.5%. Thanks to the emergence of the dynamic duo of Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk, look for that to continue. Furthermore, their depth seems competitive at an NHL level. Having added Kubalik, and with younger players like Mark Kastelic, Parker Kelly, or Ridly Greig just more experienced, the general consensus around Senators camp is the third and fourth lines are solid. They seem to have enough young prospects from the AHL level to push for NHL jobs.
Team Defence
Finally, the key to why the Senators will improve on their 86 points from 2022-23. Defence (you know, the thing that wins championships). They have Jakob Chychrun for a full season, who is arguably their top defenceman. Also, they brought in a .914 SV% from a year ago tender in Joonas Korpisalo between the pipes. Everyone is hopeful he can provide this level of consistency over an approximate 45-game span. The point is, that this team is built to be better defensively year-over-year. Combined with the supposed commitment of coach Smith to provide a better defensive systematic structure, the recipe for success is within reach.
One final note on roster moves following their last preseason game against the Canadiens. They have decided to send down a handful of players to Belleville. The most significant names on that list includes Roby Jarventie, Zack Ostapchuk, and Egor Sokolov. On the flip side, that does indicate a few exciting players stuck around, for now. That group would be the likes of Ridly Greig, Jiri Smejkal, and Max Guenette. The biggest surprise from these groups is Max Guenette. He has done nothing but impress. Guenette brings a strong work ethic and seems to get stronger and more confidence as we move toward opening night.
The Prediction for the 2023-24 Ottawa Senators
So, will the Senators make the playoffs in 2023-24? Yes. This team is built so that Norris or Pinto, or any one individual does not determine its outcome. In contrast, with both out of the lineup long-term, the strain down the middle would be significant. Suffice to say, it does need to be addressed at some point. Moreover, Michael Andlauer has done an admirable job of putting his stamp on the club, without being an involved owner. Additionally, Josh Norris is a top-two-way centre in the league. If he plays, the Senators will be great. Conversely, the 2022-23 struggles, have led the path to others to step up if need be. Pinto will be signed by the Senators, it simply is a matter of when at this point, and also, who might be traded.
Main photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
