There is a general thought out there that adding John Tavares was not the best move. To some, the Toronto Maple Leafs defense is what really needed the upgrade, not the forward core. The main problem with that line of thinking is that there are no top-tier defencemen readily available. Not like there was a top-ten center.
The Maple Leafs added where they could. Signing Tavares did at least two things. It made the Maple Leafs considerably better. And it took adding a new top-four defenseman next to impossible without losing good players and shedding salary.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Defense Isn’t Bad
Cap Crunch
The Maple Leafs are officially in cap crunch mode. Just how under pressure they are will be better understood when William Nylander signs. They have $14.7 million in cap space available now. But they can’t allow performance bonuses to push them over the cap. If they do, that money will eat into next year’s cap. Nathan Horton‘s space doesn’t help here. Between Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, that’s 3.7 million in bonuses the Maple Leafs could potentially have to pay out. That leaves $11 million in space.
If Nylander signs a bridge deal worth $5 million, which is a low estimate, that leaves the team with $6 million in space. They’ll keep a 21st player on the roster, so that brings the space down to $5 million. They’ll need some room as a buffer against the cap ceiling, so bring that space down to about $4 million they can spend on another player.
Defensemen out there that would be an upgrade for the Leafs and cost $4 million or less are few and far between and difficult to acquire.
The Maple Leafs may be looking to sign Nylander to a long-term deal as well. That will drive his value up and eat into much of that remaining $4 million.
That doesn’t leave much room to improve the defense without trading away a valuable asset.
Addition by Subtraction And Reduction
Roman Polak was not terrible, but his Corsi For was 47.9 percent last year. His Relative Corsi for was -2.3. He’s great at moving other players to places they don’t want to be. But he’s slow and the Maple Leafs play a speed game. He may have led the league in own goals that deflected of some part of his gigantic body too.
Ron Hainsey looked gassed by the end of last season, and his numbers reflected that. He finished the season with a Corsi For of 47% and a Relative Corsi For of -4.5%. He played long stretches at a time, including full penalty kills. Mike Babcock needs to take it easy on his older players. Hainsey is serviceable as a third pairing defender. But he can’t be expected to eat over 20 minutes a night anymore.
Do They Really Need A Significant Upgrade?
The Maple Leafs were 12th in goals against last season. They were 11th in penalty killing. Both of those stats are respectable. They’re enough to go deep into the playoffs with this team’s offensive group. Shots against are where you really see last year’s team struggling. They were 28th with 33.9 shots against per game.
Tavares is good defensively. He’s consistently getting Selke votes. Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri are also both good defensively. If the forward group, which starts at center, can be responsible with the puck and keep it in the offensive zone, that may alleviate many of the team’s defensive concerns.
The Maple Leafs don’t need a Drew Doughty or Erik Karlsson to be legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. They could still use an upgrade though. Assuming there is no blockbuster trade for a defenceman on the horizon, the Maple Leafs will need to look within to improve their defense.
Two Key Players
There are two key players that need to do well for the Maple Leafs defense to do well. Those players are Travis Dermott and Nikita Zaitsev.
Dermott is young and played well for a rookie in 37 games last season. If he can continue that uptrend and show he can play top-four minutes on the left side of the defense, it opens the door for Morgan Rielly to move to the right side. The right side of the defense has been the Achille’s heel of the Maple Leafs. Ideally, Reilly stays on the left side, but the Maple Leafs may not have that luxury this year.
Zaitsev had a down year last year after a strong rookie campaign. If he can regain his rookie form and step forward from there, it will further solidify the team’s right side defense. But even with a bounce-back year, Zaitsev is not a top pairing defenceman. If Rielly does move to the right side on the top pairing, Zaitsev could solidify the top four as the second pairing’s right side defenceman.
If Dermott and Zaitsev fail to take forward steps next season, the Maple Leafs will need to make upgrades before playoffs.
But, if they both prove they can play in the top four, the defense would look like this:
Gardiner – Reilly
Dermott – Zaitsev
Promote From Within
It’s not to say the Maple Leafs will need to trade their way out of trouble on the back end if things don’t work out with Zaitsev and/or Dermott. They have a host of players waiting for a chance to prove they belong in the NHL. It’s possible that none of them prove to be capable of playing on the two top pairings, or even in the NHL at all. But the Maple Leafs’ mindset here is if you throw enough players at the wall, one of them may stick.
The Maple Leafs are penciling in Hainsey and Connor Carrick as the third pair for now. When training camp opens there will be many more players trying to earn a job.
Igor Ozhiganov, like Zaitsev, signed with the Maple Leafs after playing the early part of his career in the KHL. Ozhiganov is now looking to ply his trade in the NHL.
Calle Rosen didn’t make the NHL roster after last year’s training camp. But after a solid year in the AHL, Rosen may be ready to make the jump.
Andreas Borgman did make the NHL roster after last year’s training camp, but after 48 games, he was sent down to the Toronto Marlies and replaced by Dermott.
Justin Holl played well with Dermott last season and scored two goals in two games as a Maple Leafs call up.
Beginnings And Endings
The Maple Leafs defense will be a work in progress all season long. What they start with on October 3rd will not be the group that plays in April and beyond. Ensuring they are icing a top-four that can succeed in the playoffs is Kyle Dubas and Babcock’s biggest concern. Whether they have the pieces for that within the organization already is the first question. And it will take time to answer it.
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