A week before the 2023 NHL Entry Draft and Patrik Allvin dropped a wee little bomb for Vancouver Canucks fans.
Patrik Allvin Flashes Cards
In his press conference on Wednesday, general manager Patrik Allvin covered a lot of ground. He’s become more comfortable with the media here, and it showed not only in what he said but how he said it.
Clearly, he knows how to send up distracting flares to take fire when more controversial statements should. Given the nature of West Coast fans, that’s a valuable skill. Jim Rutherford learned the hard way, and Allvin took that lesson to heart.
Allvin made big statements during the conference: support for Brock Boeser and Tyler Myers. Being in “no hurry” to extend Elias Pettersson. The startling possibility that Tanner Pearson might be in camp this year. Buying out Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
But none of those caught the attention so much as the three-card monte dealer’s trick of letting you think you saw his card. The glimpse was a possibility that the Canucks are looking to move up in the draft.
“I’m looking at options if we’re going to trade up, if that’s something we have a chance to do, to get a player that the scouting staff has identified to be a more intriguing player than the one we’re going get at 11,” he said
“I was told by former GM Brian Burke that you can always move up in the draft,” he joked.
Hm.
Higher and Higher
The entry draft this year doesn’t carry the unexamined feel of last year’s “Covid draft” but there were still plenty of questions. As the season progressed, most draft lists have narrowed down at the very top, even if the variance gets wilder from there.
There’s always the element of surprise, especially since we don’t know what private draft lists look like. It only took one team to draft Jesperi Kotkaniemi third overall in 2018. When Barrett Hayton then went fifth, that REALLY sent lists for a loop.
So, is there a chance that one of the top, say, five players on the Canucks unseen draft list come available? Not as far as eleventh, where their selection is, but somehow within reach? Sure. But then what?
Selling Hope
The popularity of prospects moves throughout the year. More exposure to scouts, more games played, and the players themselves physically mature. Don’t forget that these are young guys, after all.
This year’s biggest shift has been in the defencemen. From the start of the season when there was some doubt any would be taken in the top fifteen selections, there is now the possibility of three being taken in the top ten.
The values of Dimitri Simashev, Axel Sandin Pellika, Tom Willander, and David Reinbacher have all increased, sometimes dramatically. That doesn’t mean they will break into the top of the board on draft day, but at least now it’s possible.
And when one player moves up, others move down. And Patrik Allvin will, or so he says, be ready to pounce. Which doesn’t mean he’ll be able to, not without crippling the Canucks at the same time.
Known Unknowns
Teams aren’t telling each other which prospects they value or where they’ve put them. That ain’t happening. Likewise, any stories that are out in the general media are going to be what the teams want out there.
It happens all the time, with players’ names suddenly appearing in trade talks or oddly specific terms showing up during contract negotiations. Draft picks – which don’t have players attached to them yet – even more so.
Numbers, after all, don’t get angry at you for suggesting they’d be better on another team.
And management always lies around draft time. Some will bait hooks with the prospect of moving down to “fill out the roster” or “improve the team now rather than later.” Perfectly valid points, but mostly encouragement to start getting phone calls.
Patrik Allvin, on the other hand, has gone the other way, suggesting the team is looking to move up in the draft. It seems, at first, very unlikely. But given the odds of a surprise pick happening somewhere in the top ten, why not?
It’s All(vin) About the Cost
There is simply no way Vancouver can move up to the top five. That’s not happening. Everyone there wants the best skill they can get, as teams drafting this high do.
The Arizona Coyotes, on the other hand, are always looking to the future – especially with their unsettled nature. Draft picks aren’t just a future asset, but they also don’t draw a paycheque. With the Canucks still looking to move salary, a deal might be had here.
And that’s part of the problem for Vancouver. The Canucks want to improve NOW – or very close to now – and the 11th overall selection isn’t going to be joining the team for 2023-24, and probably not for 2023-24 either. A player taken at sixth just might.
The jump in talent between eleventh and sixth is considerable, and the cost will equal it. Without losing NHL players, the team will need to pay in future assets. That’s picks and some of their few notable prospects.
He is going to have plenty of good options at eleven with enough holes in the current roster that using the slot to improve the team immediately isn’t unreasonable.
Should I Stay or Should I Go
The big takeaway from the scouting reports and analysis of the prospect lists is this: it looks good. Whoever the Canucks have available at pick #11 is very promising that they’ll be happy to get. But they can always want more, right?
The alternative to moving up isn’t just staying with the pick, but possibly moving down. Buying out Ekman-Larsson eased the pressure off the Canucks cap limit, but they still have a strong suit on the wings.
As with any other profession, if you’re going to trade, trade from strength. Patrik Allvin has to be hunting down a veteran, top-four defenceman now, and probably another NHL-quality goaltender.
The wingers they were being forced to move for nothing can now be moved because at their value. So the usual names (Boeser, Conor Garland, Anthony Beauvillier) can be considered in an exchange along with their draft position.
And a deal like that is much more likely to return help now without sacrificing the future. The question is whether they think the team will gain more with a lower-ranked prospect and help now, or waiting for a better prospect to develop.
Main Photo: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
