With the Stanley Cup playoffs back underway, the Colorado Avalanche begin their quest to defend their title. In round one, they face the league’s youngest franchise in the Seattle Kraken. Bucking the “Sophomore Slump” stigma, Seattle followed up a disappointing inaugural season in 2021-22 (27-49-6) with a 100-point campaign. Both teams hope for a deep run, but the road will end prematurely for one in the next couple of weeks. At least for today, though, Seattle celebrates their first playoff berth in the team’s short history. Obviously, it also represents the first Colorado Avalanche vs Seattle Kraken series in league history, too. In preparation, here are some key storylines to follow before the series gets underway Tuesday night.
Colorado Avalanche vs Seattle Kraken First-Round Preview
Star-Studded Avalanche vs Star-Less Kraken
Despite losing a couple of key contributors from last year’s championship roster, Colorado still possesses arguably the best team in the league on paper. That remains true even with the recent news on Gabriel Landeskog, and how he will not return to play at any time during the 2023 postseason. Somehow, their best players got even better this season too. Nathan MacKinnon broke the 100-point threshold for the first time in his career, setting new career highs in goals (42), assists (69) and points (111). Mikko Rantanen (55-50-105) did the same, becoming the first Avalanche player to ever score 55 goals in a season.
Twelve of their 13 leading scorers this year won the Cup with them last year. Also, 16 of the 20 dressed for the decisive game six of the Stanley Cup playoffs stand ready to play for them this time around. Yes, they lost Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky and Darcy Kuemper, but their leaders and the supporting cast all stepped up. With names like MacKinnon, Rantanen, Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin, Devon Toews and Bowen Byram, no one can take them lightly.
Though it might seem harsh, the reality is that the Kraken simply do not have names like that on their team. At least, not yet anyways. Matthew Beniers looks like a budding superstar and lock for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. Jared McCann hit 40 goals this season, too. But where they lack in elite top-end players, they more than makeup for with incredible depth. They had the most players with double-digit goal totals (13) in the league and finished fourth in goals per game league-wide, too. They actually outscored the Avs over the year. But, they did so with all four lines, rather than relying on a small handful of players.
Opposite Paths Leading to the Playoffs
Performance down the stretch of the regular season tells a lot about a team’s headspace when the playoffs begin. The Kraken wrapped their year up with back-to-back regulation losses against the Vegas Golden Knights. They went 6-1-0 in the seven games just prior to that, including a five-game win streak. Despite this, Colorado still looks downright better when evaluating the Avalanche vs the Kraken as they enter the playoffs.
Seattle’s last regulation victory over a 2023 playoff team came way back on January 12th. That’s the exact same date the Avs turned things around, after a regulation loss to the Chicago Blackhawks. From that day on, the Avs went on a massive hot streak to end the year on a 23-5-3 tear. They went 7-0-1 in their last eight games too, just enough to catch everyone and win the Central by a single point.
Colorado dealt with injury after injury all year long and still managed to finish on top. The Kraken started strong, but couldn’t beat a playoff team without at least forcing overtime across the last three months of the season. Those paths look like mirror images of one another.
Goaltending Matchup
After winning the Cup last year, Colorado lost Darcey Kuemper, their number one goalie, to free agency. In his place, they acquired Alexandar Georgiev, who filled in better than anyone could have hoped. Georgiev became a bonafide starting goalie this season, going 40-16-6 with a .918 save percentage and 2.53 goals against average. It represents the best season of Georgiev’s career, by a wide margin. He never won 20 games in a year before this year, and his 40 wins tied Linus Ullmark atop the entire NHL.
Meanwhile in Seattle, the goalie situation remains tumultuous. Martin Jones and Philipp Grubauer essentially shared the crease this season with 42 and 36 starts, respectively. Neither boasted a save percentage above .900 (the unspoken “bare minimum” value for acceptable goaltending, the NHL’s version of the “Mendoza Line” in the MLB). Out of 75 ranked goalies, Grubauer landed 56th (-8.95) and Jones way down at 71st (-21.37) in Goals Saved Above Average. Georgiev (26.31) ranked sixth best.
In raw numbers, both the Kraken and Avalanche allowed fewer high-danger scoring chances than most of the league. They rank within the best ten for that statistic, highlighting their strong defences and ability to prevent quality scoring chances. However, on that fewer total allowed, Seattle still surrenders goals 12.9% of the time. That percentage ranks higher than any other team in the league. Meanwhile, the Avalanche (7.7%) ranks third lowest (or “third best”). Where Georgiev finds ways to bail his team out with a save on quality scoring threats, Grubauer and Jones remain far less effective.
Series Prediction: Avs in Four
Last year, the Avs swept the Nashville Predators in the first round and only lost four games on their way to the Stanley Cup. This year, they will do the same, at least in the first round. Unfortunately for Seattle, their lack of experience hurts here. Their opponents know what it takes to win in the postseason. Colorado ate three straight years of second-round exits decided by a game seven before they finally broke through. They want to deal out those same growing pains to their opponents now too.
Sure, Seattle boasts some former Cup winners who accomplished those feats as well. Vince Dunn, Yanni Gourde, and Jaden Schwartz all come to mind, as well as Grubauer and Jones as backups. But those all came in other places, with other teammates and other settings altogether. In fact, Andre Burakovsky did it with the Avs just a season ago. He’s one of Seattle’s only former champs and remains out with an injury suffered in early February.
The Avalanche matchup great vs the Kraken, as they do against most opponents. Past experiences help ensure they won’t overlook anyone in the playoffs, too. Seattle’s best chance comes if they can wear the Avs down. They have to run their system as efficiently as they ever did during the regular season. Ultimately though, with the high-end talent on Colorado’s side, and the tumultuous goaltending on the other, Colorado holds a significant edge in this series.
Main Photo: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
