Welcome back to another day of NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head and other factors that may play in. We also have a featured game of the day, which is considered must-watch TV. Today’s featured game is the Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes.
NHL Predictions
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes
Head-to-Head: Avalanche 2-1 Coyotes
This is the opening game of our NHL predictions. Colorado enters the second half of a home-and-home series with the Coyotes off a win in the first game and eight in their last ten. Overall, improving, somewhat sustained team health has allowed Colorado to return to a more true quality of play heading into the postseason, with a chance to still win the division; currently, Minnesota is atop of the division, three points above the Avalanche but with two extra games played. Top players such as Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen have been able to perform at and above their level of play alongside strong depth, with the team’s healing lineup dynamic supporting this play. The former in particular has had one of the best stretches of his career as of late, in which he is riding an 11-game point streak, scoring 20 total points in that span.
Arizona currently holds the sixth-best odds for the number one overall pick in the 2023 draft, with nine games to play for the squad. Despite the generally poor form, the Coyotes have had this season, the quality of the roster and media expectations levied on the team compared to this season’s play may indicate some over-performance from the team. Aside from the duo of Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, who is likely to hold clear career highs in points by the season’s end, the rebound in Karel Vejmelka‘s play in goal has been a huge bright spot for the Coyotes this season. For the Coyotes, games like these are opportunities to finish the season with some pride while having fun spoiling other teams.
Prediction: 5-1 Avalanche
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes
Head-to-Head: Bruins 0-0 Hurricanes
Tonight’s featured game of NHL predictions pits the top two teams in the NHL in Raleigh, North Carolina. The 117-point Boston Bruins, and the 102-point Carolina Hurricanes, who were the first two teams to clinch playoff spots respectively, are also arguably the NHL’s top two defensive squads, each ranking top five in 5v5 expected goals against (per Evolving-Hockey). Interestingly, Carolina had somewhat of a poor night in that regard last night, relying on Pyotr Kochetkov to the degree of 4.32 expected goals against, in which 1.32 were saved above expected (MoneyPuck). This will only be further challenged by another team elite in transition in the Bruins, on top of the fact this game is the second half of a back-to-back for the Hurricanes. Still, defensive excellency is Carolina’s game, and a team of their calibre is rarely walked upon for any stretch of games.
Just as Boston hones the transition ice and dynamic in-zone play, Carolina hones the forecheck and in-zone possession game through the perimeter. The quantity could certainly be a challenge for Boston’s goal-tending this game; Boston will be more thoroughly tested in physical areas in front of their own goal and ensure they continue to limit the quality of shots to the degree they usually have this season. Whether the Bruins take a larger approach to boxing out the crease or playing aggressively to the boards and clogging the middle, shortages of octane battles in all three zones will not exist.
The top two teams in the National Hockey League. Dynamic to the core. A potential late playoff matchup, and a rematch of last year’s first-round series in which the Hurricanes won in seven games. This game should be an electric mix of tight-checking play, offensive excellency, and moments of strong goaltending.
Prediction: 3-2 Bruins (OT)
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Nashville Predators
Head-to-Head: Maple Leafs 1-0 Predators
The month of March has been rather tumultuous for the Predators, whose severe injury bug this month has significantly hampered their playoff ambitions. While suffering two losses in which they allowed seven goals (including their most recent game), they also posted a win with seven goals in between those two losses; not just in this month, but entirely in the past week as well. Nashville’s offence almost entirely hinges upon Matt Duchene and Tommy Novak at this stage of the season; considering that they are not elite play drivers, or close to such, the consistency of their chance generation appears poorly bounded.
A frustrating loss to the Hurricanes last night brings the Maple Leafs into Bridgestone Arena looking for blood. Auston Matthews may be especially frustrated with the result in this game; he posted 15 shots in the game, scoring the second and third equalizing goals just for the last of his equalizers to be met with the game-winning goal from Carolina 32 seconds later. Regardless, a larger issue this month for Toronto has been consistency, whose record in the month is just above a winning percentage of .500 and far below that of the team’s cumulative .660 on the season.
While both teams have dealt with their fair number of frustrations of late, one is much more equipped to solve them in this game.
Prediction: 4-1 Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks vs Chicago Blackhawks
Head-to-Head: Canucks 1-0 Blackhawks
What would have been an epic game about 12 years ago is now one whose implications reach the draft lottery, rather than for or to the postseason. Still, Vancouver always seems to bring along an element of octane with their high-end talent pool; J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes in particular have had elite stretches as of late under Rick Tocchet, while Elias Pettersson has continued his career year in which he is now just nine points away from 100, with 10 games remaining.
Chicago, who has lost four straight after two straight wins in the middle of the month, host the Canucks with a lineup resembling that of an American Hockey League lineup save maybe their top line and pair. For reference, the leading point producer on the Blackhawks post-Kane is Taylor Raddysh, who currently has 33. Now, this is not a slight at Raddysh, who has put up 20 goals in his third NHL season playing alongside Jonathan Toews and Phillip Kurashev.
Currently, both teams are in the race for the first overall pick, with the Blackhawks at a clear advantage in that regard. We expect this advantage will increase in our NHL predictions tonight.
Prediction: 6-3 Canucks
St. Louis Blues vs Los Angeles Kings
Head-to-Head: Blues 0-2 Kings
Here is where we finish our NHL predictions for Sunday. St. Louis and Los Angeles converge with wins in their most recent game each and decent play overall in the past week. Los Angeles has especially ramped their performance level this month, losing just twice out of 10 games so far this month. A balanced offensive core allows the Kings to fluidly and consistently generate chances; between Kevin Fiala‘s motor, Adrian Kempe‘s sustained play, 50 point seasons from Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson, among six others with at least 30 points, the state of LA’s offence provides the team plentiful confidence as the team gears for a potential playoff run. LA even threatens the Golden Knights for the top spot in the Pacific, lying just four points back with a game in hand.
Meanwhile, the ever-so-confusing St. Louis Blues lie comfortably outside a playoff spot, but not quite poor enough to contend for the first overall pick. Aside from the team’s position in the standings, St. Louis continues to see strong play from some of its top players. Brayden Schenn has heated up in his last 10, with 11 points in that stretch (which is far above his cumulative points per game mark). Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, and Robert Thomas are each 60-point producers, with Kyrou leading the team in points at 66. St. Louis is similar to some teams in its position in that its high-end talent can provide for an electric game overall.
Prediction: 4-2 Kings
Main photo by: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
