Welcome back to another day of NHL Predictions. Each day, the Last Word on Hockey team discusses each game and breaks down everything expected for the matchup. This includes trends, issues, and matchups, with a prediction at the end. This week, the Conference Finals continue with only one game per day, and four teams left in the hunt. Tonight, Game 3 of the Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers series takes place.
NHL Predictions with Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers
Series: Lightning 0 – 2 Rangers
Well, not many saw this coming. The defending champions dropped the first two games of this series, and looked frustrated in the process. Meanwhile, their young opponents continue playing with confidence and composure far beyond their years. To all those who assert that teams must first “learn to win” and accumulate “playoff experience” before they can actually hang with the big dogs in the league, the Rangers continue emphatically shaking their heads in disagreement. Meanwhile, the stellar defence and goaltending that won the Lightning two-consecutive Stanley Cups is treading water, desperate to stay afloat.
For the first time since 2019, Tampa lost consecutive postseason games. Their 18-0 run in playoff games following a playoff loss came to a grinding halt. Andrei Vasilevskiy surrendered only three goals in the entire four-game sweep of the Florida Panthers in Round Two. In Game 1 against New York, the Rangers potted six, plus another three in game two. Those nine goals, on just 62 shots, mean the goalie holds a meager .855% save percentage thus far in the Conference Finals. Again, this is the same guy who posted a .980% last round, and who had a cumulative .932% for the postseason entering this series.
At the opposite end of the ice, Igor Shesterkin continues dominating for the Rangers. His Vezina-calibre play from the regular season carried straight into the playoffs, where he looks stronger and stronger the deeper his team goes. He carries a .943% save percentage thus far in the series, surrendering only four goals on 70 Tampa Bay shots.
Home-ice Advantage Flips to Tampa
As the old saying goes, a series really doesn’t begin until a team loses on home-ice. Well, the Bolts have an opportunity now to hold serve and turn the series into a best-of-three. That’s easier said than done, however, and will require a significantly stronger effort from their entire room. Vasilevskiy can’t receive all the blame, as the Lightning carry a -10 goal differential at even strength. Brayden Point would be a sight for sore eyes in Tampa’s lineup, but doesn’t appear in the cards quite yet. Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos and the rest of their leaders have to bring their best to turn the tide.
The Rangers see the door wide open, though, and will want to go for the jugular tonight. An opportunity to put the two-time defending champs on the ropes? Sign them up. That’s what tonight could be for New York. Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox both have more points than anyone else on either roster, so keeping that trend up remains key.
Not enough can be said about the moves New York made at the trade deadline, either. Frank Vatrano (four goals, seven assists) and Andrew Copp (six goals, seven assists) rank sixth and fourth, respectively, in team scoring. That depth boost rippled across the lineup. Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko and Filip Chytil, the “Kid Line”, has been the team’s most effective with seven points combined in the two games this series. Basically, this squad is clicking at exactly the right moment. Tampa Bay has all the experience, and should have an edge back at home, but New York looks more capable of taking down the reigning champs than any other team since the 2020 playoffs began.
Prediction: Lightning win 5-3
