Word is out that the long-time Chicago Blackhawk Duncan Keith would be willing to help the team with their “Aged, Expensive Player” problem.* Keith is a 38-year old defenceman with a $5.5 million cap hit for each of the next two years. His numbers have diminished over the last three years, even taking the reduced games into account. He also has a full no-move clause, so can pick and choose his destination. That preference is for the Pacific Northwest, reducing options dramatically. The market, we are saying, isn’t an extensive one. But that doesn’t mean impossible: a Duncan Keith to Vancouver Canucks deal just… might… work. Here’s how.
Duncan Keith to Vancouver Canucks Possibilities
The Case For
On his own
Keith was an absolutely vital part of three Stanley Cup championships. The lower offence can be partially explained by new coach Jeremy Colliton reducing his time in the offensive zone. He’s still a workhorse, averaging over 23 minutes of ice time over 52 games last season. And he would certainly be used in Vancouver! Currently, the left side consists of Quinn Hughes, Jack Rathbone, and Olli Juolevi. It would be a bold move to ice a total of 160 NHL games in that position, and Keith is nothing if not a veteran. Last season he was used everywhere despite his clearly declining skillset. He averaged around 2:30 on each special team and led the Blackhawks in ice time by over a minute per game. Colliton obviously isn’t afraid to use him.
Keith has been surprisingly durable over his career, despite the heavy usage. He has nearly 1200 regular-season games under his belt to go along with 135 playoff ones. And that’s nothing. He’s also scored 625 points over his career, but the offence isn’t what a team is getting him for at this point. So if it’s not his offence, and his defence has slipped in each of the past three seasons, what would Vancouver be getting, exactly? Ah!
As a Package
The Future – What Can Be Gained
For this deal to happen, Chicago has to want to shed Duncan Keith’s contract. So any interested team has to look at two things: what they can gain and what they can lose. Both can be an advantage. That deal isn’t small, and it’s twice the length of Loui Eriksson‘s. Speculation was that a contract that size is worth a first-round pick (see also: Patrick Marleau, circa 2019). Even if Chicago took back Eriksson’s deal, there’s that second year to be paid for. While they might balk at a first-round pick, they do have an extra second-round one this year…
And the cap hit is what Vancouver would be buying. In terms of actual cash, Keith is owed $3.6 million over the deal, not $10 million-plus. Shedding Eriksson’s contract for the season with $4 million in cash remaining is a selling point here. Adding the 44th overall pick in return for $5.5 million in cap space in 2022-23 wouldn’t be great, but they could live through it. The Brock Boeser deal would be expiring then, but unless Rathbone blows the doors off, that’s the only big one due.
The cap space is a bit of a saw-off, and there’s a hit next year, but that additional pick could be worth it. And Eriksson is never going to play for Vancouver again, whereas Keith may actually find a spot. At least for one year.
The Present – What Can Be Lost
Or, in lieu of a draft pick – what with rebuilding and all – perhaps expiring deals are more tempting? Chicago, minus Keith, has a lot of cap space next year. Sure, they have a couple of players to sign, but Pius Suter isn’t going to need to rent a Brinks truck. Vancouver could agree to take on the $11 million cap space over two years in return for $11 million in 2021-22. If Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel go with Eriksson, less some retained salary, it gives Vancouver space now and bumps the Blackhawks up against the cap ceiling.
That’s not quite the disadvantage it sounds, as they’ll want to take full advantage of anyone on the long-term injured reserve list. Right now, that list is Brent Seabrook and his nearly $7 million contract plus Andrew Shaw‘s $3.9 million deal. The closer the team is to the cap, the more LTIR space they can use. Or, if they’d rather, all three of Beagle, Roussel, and Eriksson can be moved to the minors for an additional $4 million cap space – unlike Keith.
The Case Against
For the Team
Not to put too fine a point on it, there are better options. Keith spent time paired with three different partners – Adam Boqvist, Connor Murphy, and Ian Mitchell – and all were better without him. If the team wants a veteran for the left side, they can do it without any “Duncan Keith to Vancouver Canucks” deal at all. Cheaper, too. Just re-sign Alexander Edler, and not for anything close to his previous deal. A one-year deal for $2 million should bring back the best defenceman in Canucks history. Unfortunately, Edler is nothing close to his best anymore, and there is a valid argument for Keith being the better player right now. But Edler is cheaper, has history, and can be signed to a single season – unlike Keith.
Current player Nate Schmidt can switch sides if coach Travis Green feels a deep need for it. The little-used Madison Bowey has 156 games of NHL experience if he evades the Seattle Kraken’s eye. There are other free-agent defencemen out there, left or right side, who can fill the bottom pair. In one more season, the most egregious mistakes of Jim Benning‘s signings are gone. Why add to them now?
For Fans
The cost of anti-psychotics may just skyrocket. Keith has been a recurring enemy to the Canucks’ best – and worst – seasons for a decade. Somehow, he’s always in the way of Vancouver’s progress. Whether in the playoffs three years running or the regular season where, despite all logic and the insistence of the time-space continuum, it feels like every one of his 1,192 games was against the Canucks.
One way to overcome that enmity is to remind fans that the team would never have to face him again. But the memory of the player he was in 2010 or 2015 is a harsh contrast to the one they’d be getting. And for two more years, yet. Given how they already feel about the long-time general manager, that would be poking campfire ashes with dynamite to make sure it’s out.
Verdict
Fun as it is to play with the possibilities, it’s unlikely that Chicago actually wants to lose Duncan Keith. Even less likely is them paying enough for that loss to make a deal palatable for Vancouver. This deal isn’t going to happen.
Main Photo:
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