The Ottawa Senators 2025-26 defence underachieved as a whole. This is a difficult conclusion to come to when the Sens as a team were excellent at mitigating shots and high-danger chances against. So, let’s sit down and recap how we got here for the Sens, from the defence’s perspective. You know what it is, let’s get sensational.
A Review of the Ottawa Senators 2025-26 Defence
To help support our discussion of team defence, we start with a review of the goaltending statistics. For this, we filter on goalies with a minimum of 25 games played, so it works out to 59 qualifying goaltenders. We will consider the quality of shots allowed by studying the statistics of save percentage above expected. In high-danger shots, Ullmark ranked 39th at 0.081. This was manageable for the Sens, since they allowed the second fewest high-quality shots against (124, Los Angeles Kings had 117) in the league. Moreover, when we look at medium-danger chances, Ullmark’s ranking was much worse. He was 58th (yes, second last) at -0.046.
Credit Image: © Dirk Shadd/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
Yes, that’s all fine and well, but what does it mean? It suggests that the Senators 2025-26 defence did a bad job of gap control and defensive zone rotational coverage. If attackers are scoring on medium-danger opportunities, that likely falls on the defence giving them too much space, and allowing them to take the type of shots snipers expect to take. Not ones where defencemen’s sticks are on pucks and shin-guards are in lanes. So, even if the shots are from farther out (opposed to their high-danger counterparts), when those shooters are open, they are still very dangerous shots coming from elite-NHL snipers.
Even as Ullmark’s overall save percentage improved down the stretch, the fact that his inability to prevent those medium-danger shots from finding their way through was a sign of a bigger underlying problem.
Jordan Spence‘s Inexperience Showed
The youthfulness of the Sens blueline is likely to blame. Even though the Sens goaltending received a lot of flak for its poor performance early in the season, we don’t want to let the blueliners off that easily. Jordan Spence was prone to costly mistakes throughout the season, more so earlier on.
The one play that comes to mind was a game against the New York Islanders. Anders Lee muscled him off the puck and powered to goal. It ended up as a game-winning goal by the Isles with just over a minute on the clock. There were some other instances, too. The hard part about the timing for Spence was that he had been a healthy scratch to start the season. Therefore, it really took him some time to get any rhythm during the regular season.
Injuries Reared Their Ugly Head
In addition, the Senators 2025-26 defence, as a whole, ended up getting exposed, largely due to injuries. It led to their organizational depth to be questioned, in particular on the left side. Outside of Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, and Tyler Kleven, a fine trio of left-shot rearguards in their own right, but beyond them, the Sens didn’t have reliable options. Combined they played 67, 57, and 70 games. Or the equivalent of 78.9% man games played. Dennis Gilbert did work his way into eight games, but only at 12:41 of average ice time.
The other struggle was the continued impact of Nick Jensen’s injury problems. Now, over his two seasons in Ottawa, he played 132 (of 164) regular season games. That isn’t too bad, big picture. However, he really was never as effective as when he first started with the Sens. The first half of 2024-25, Chabot and Jensen were an ideal second pairing. Unfortunately, once Jensen’s hip problems began to rear their ugly head, his play was never at the same level.
A Few Flaws on the Senators 2025-26 Defence
The worst part of this being, was there was no where to insulate him. The Sens wanted him in a top-four role. So, losing that reliability of one of those players, was felt throughout the lineup. It was part of the thinking that caused Staios to go out and get Spence in the offseason. Also, the Sens made some other moves in attempt to increase their depth on the right side. Cameron Crotty and Lassi Thomson were there just in case. Of note, Thomson just announced that he has signed in Lugano for the 2026-27 campaign. So, he is no longer available for Staios and company. Jorian Donovan is another of those depth guys trying to find his place, although he is a left shot.
✍️ L’Hockey Club Lugano comunica di aver ingaggiato il difensore finlandese Lassi Thomson (182 cm x 87 kg, right), nato il 24 settembre 2000 a Tampere. Il giocatore ha firmato un contratto biennale valido fino al 2028.
GM Janick Steinmann:
“Lassi è un difensore con spiccate… pic.twitter.com/H9FH68AO8r— Hockey Club Lugano (@OfficialHCL) May 8, 2026
In any case, it led to 13 different defenders suiting up for Ottawa in 2025-26. To summarize the situation, that despite the team playing well, there were warning signs of a potential weak link.
It was also unfortunate that a strong third-pair guy, Nikolas Matinpalo, was forced to sit for a stretch of games in 2025-26. What it leads to, is what is next for the Senators. How can the Sens, not eliminate these problems, but help to prevent them and be better prepared if they do happen.
Where Does the Senator Defence Go From Here?
Going forward the Sens do have an interesting dilemma. The reason for the dilemma aspect, is the unknown. If the Sens go out and attract a big-name defenceman, say via trade, who’s to say it won’t end up costing them too much in the long run.
You really need to compare a top-eight with and without Carter Yakemchuk. Can the Sens insulate him enough 2026-27 to really improve their blueline as a whole, year-over-year? Or, are they better off going out and getting high-priced asset? A legitimate top-pairing right-side guy to play with Sanderson. With him, there would be no question about playoffs.
If we study some stats, it is hard to imagine how the Sens could improve. Analyzing on-ice expected goals differential at 5v5, Ottawa’s numbers are strong.
- Zub – 9.1
- Kleven – 6.1
- Sanderson – 14.3
- Chabot – 6.3
- Spence – 23.6
- Jensen – 1.7
- Matinpalo – 4
When compared to the league leaders, Spence actually was tops in the entire NHL. Now, you do need to think about quality of competition. Spence would not be playing against teams’ top lines very often. Opposed to guys like Ekholm and Bouchard, who did see a lot of top matchups.
NHL Leaders
- Spence
- Sam Malinski – COL – 23.2
- Sean Walker – CAR – 19.9
- Mattias Ekholm – EDM – 19.2
- Evan Bouchard – EDM – 18.2
That previous stat is somewhat cumulative. So, if we consider a similar metric, but based on impact of their actual time on ice, the Senators 2025-26 defence still scores well, very well in fact. We find three Sens in the top seven, and this is league-wide, too.
On-Ice Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes
- Spence – 1.94
- Sanderson – 1.98
- Kaedan Kolczak – 1.98
- Miro Heiskanen – 2.03
- Drew Doughty – 2.04
(7th Artem Zub – 2.05)
Let’s look at a potential top-eight defence for the Sens in 2026-27.
- Sanderson – Zub
- Chabot – Yakemchuk
- Kleven – Spence
- Donovan – Matinpalo
Opposed to something along the lines of
- Sanderson – Raddysh
- Chabot – Zub
- Kleven – Spence
- Donovan – Matinpalo
You could try to find a way to trade for Colton Parayko. After all, the Buffalo Sabres nearly landed him at the trade deadline. Rasmus Andersson might be another name to add to the list of potential options. The considerations have to be made, where would the money for a big time top-pair defenceman come from? Shane Pinto’s salary increase (from $3.75 million to $7.5 million cap hit) is one reason the money is limited to improve upon the Senators 2025-26 defence. Their backend does have some room, but still Spence needs a new contract. He definitely has the numbers to support a raise. Luckily, Jensen’s $4 million-plus is off the books.
How much can Staios really do to improve the Sens defence one through six? Adding Yakemchuk makes their current options look promising. However, it does seem difficult for them to win the matchup game on the right side, specifically. There are stars to be had, look at Quinn Hughes or Noah Dobson moving as recent examples. We think Staios tried to add skill this summer, but will it be to the blueline, or elsewhere? Have to wait and see.
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images
