Here at Last Word On Hockey, we will preview and review all of the series from the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. In every series, we aim to deliver at least three articles throughout the series: a preview, a mid-series analysis, and a recap. Today, we shift our focus to the Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks. After years of familiar playoff paths, Edmonton draws a new opponent in a young, high-event Anaheim group. Meanwhile, the Ducks return to the postseason for the first time since 2018, arriving earlier than expected and with nothing to lose.
Ducks vs Oilers Preview: 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round
The Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks meet in the opening round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs in a matchup that should produce goals, chaos, and momentum swings. Edmonton enters with home-ice advantage and championship expectations after back-to-back deep playoff runs to the Cup Finals. Meanwhile, Anaheim arrives as one of the league’s most entertaining young teams, powered by speed and offensive creativity.
Credit Image: © Ringo Chiu via ZUMA Wire
However, the contrast in experience and structure is hard to ignore. The Oilers know exactly what this time of year demands. Meanwhile, the Ducks are still figuring it out in real time. That combination tends to produce entertaining hockey, but not always favourable results for the younger side.
Series Overview
This series sets up as a classic clash between elite star power and emerging depth. Edmonton will lean heavily on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who remain the most dangerous duo in hockey and can take over a series almost on command. Draisaitl is listed as day-to-day and remains uncertain but likely for Game 1, a status that looms large given his ability to tilt the series alongside McDavid if fully healthy. Meanwhile, Anaheim counters with a wave of young offensive talent led by Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Beckett Sennecke.
Furthermore, both teams play a high-event style that should create a track meet. Anaheim generates chances at an elite rate, particularly off the rush, and has leaned into that identity all season. However, that same approach has exposed significant defensive gaps, especially in their own zone.
On the other side, Edmonton has quietly improved its defensive structure down the stretch. While still imperfect, the Oilers are no longer relying solely on outscoring problems. That shift could be the difference in a series where both teams are capable of putting up goals in bunches.
Series Odds, Models, and Predictions
All available signals point clearly toward Edmonton.
The Athletic’s model gives the Oilers roughly a 70 percent chance to win the series, reflecting both talent disparity and playoff track record. Meanwhile, HockeyStats projects a similar outcome at approximately 67 percent in favour of Edmonton. MoneyPuck is slightly more conservative but still leans Oilers, generally placing them around the 60 percent range depending on series length.
Additionally, the betting market reinforces that view. Sportsbooks list Edmonton as a −220 favourite, which implies roughly a 69 percent chance to advance. Anaheim sits at +180, a clear underdog despite a strong regular season.
Furthermore, front-office sentiment aligns with the numbers. League executives have consistently placed Edmonton in a higher competitive tier, while Anaheim is viewed as a dangerous but flawed team with clear defensive concerns .
Taken together, this is one of the more consensus-leaning matchups of the first round.
Oilers vs Ducks Season Series Recap
The Oilers took the regular season series 2–1, with each game showcasing the same themes expected in this matchup. Edmonton’s top-end talent consistently created high-danger chances, while Anaheim found ways to generate offence of its own through speed and transition play.
However, even in Anaheim’s win, the margin for error was thin. The Ducks needed strong offensive execution to overcome defensive lapses, a pattern that has followed them throughout the season.
The Ducks’ Keys to Victory
- Win the Track Meet: Anaheim cannot play a controlled, low-event series. Instead, they must lean into their identity and push the pace. If this becomes a structured, half-ice game, Edmonton has the clear advantage.
- Dostál Must Steal Games: Lukáš Dostál has the ability to elevate, but he must be consistently excellent. Given Anaheim’s defensive profile, average goaltending will not be enough.
- Limit the Damage, Not the Stars: Connor McDavid will produce. That is unavoidable. However, Anaheim must prevent secondary scoring from taking over. If the Oilers’ depth contributes consistently, this series will end quickly.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Cutter Gauthier with 10:19 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Jeffrey Viel and John Carlson.Edmonton: 3Anaheim: 2#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-28T21:57:04.997906Z
The Oilers’ Keys to Victory
- Let the Stars Dictate the Series: Edmonton’s clearest path is also its simplest. McDavid and Draisaitl can overwhelm Anaheim’s defensive structure, especially given the Ducks’ struggles in high-danger areas.
- Exploit Special Teams: The Oilers’ power play remains elite and could be decisive against Anaheim’s penalty kill. Even a slight edge here could swing multiple games.
- Maintain Defensive Discipline: Edmonton does not need to win a shootout every night. If their improved defensive structure holds, they can control games without exposing their goaltending.
Edmonton goal!Scored by Matt Savoie with 13:50 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Vasily Podkolzin and Connor McDavid.Edmonton: 3Anaheim: 0#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-28T21:43:59.546324Z
Oilers vs Ducks Series Prediction
This series should be entertaining. Anaheim has the offensive talent to push pace and create problems, and their youth could inject volatility into individual games. However, volatility rarely wins playoff series against elite teams.
Edmonton holds the edge in star power, experience, structure, and overall consistency. More importantly, every major model and market indicator supports that advantage. When those signals align this clearly, it is usually for a reason.
The Ducks may steal a game or two, particularly if their offence clicks or Dostál gets hot. However, over a seven-game sample, the gaps in defensive structure and playoff experience are likely to surface.
Prediction: Oilers win the series in 6 games.
Main photo: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
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