Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the slate of games and predicts the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 1 of a compelling Western Conference matchup as the Anaheim Ducks visit the Edmonton Oilers. The Ducks are back in the postseason for the first time in years, while the Oilers enter with legitimate Stanley Cup expectations.
NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers Game 1
Regular Season Series: EDM won 2–1
Time: 10:10 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 7:10 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to watch– US TV: ESPN+, ESPN2, Victory+, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: CBC, SN, TVAS, SN+
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (43-33-6) arrive in the playoffs after a turbulent finish, going just 2-6-2 in their final ten games. Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers (41-30-11) closed the season in strong form and once again enter as a contender led by elite talent.
Credit Image: © Mickey Bernal/ZUMA Wire
However, this matchup hinges on stylistic contrast. The Ducks thrive in high-event games, generating and allowing chances at one of the highest rates in the league. Conversely, the Oilers have evolved into a more structured team while maintaining their elite offensive ceiling.
Furthermore, Game 1 carries outsized importance. Anaheim’s series odds jump significantly with an opening win, while Edmonton aims to assert control early at home. Ultimately, this game will be decided by whether Anaheim can survive Edmonton’s special teams and whether they can convert their 5-on-5 chances at a higher rate than usual.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
The Ducks’ identity is clear. They push pace, generate chances, and rely on their young offensive core to drive results. Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Troy Terry headline a group that helped Anaheim jump to 13th in goals per game this season.
However, their strengths come with trade-offs. Anaheim allowed one of the highest goal totals in the league, reflecting their high-risk style. While their underlying metrics such as expected goals and shot share are strong, their finishing and defensive execution remain inconsistent.
Moreover, goaltending remains a question. Lukas Dostal posted an .888 save percentage and enters the playoffs needing to elevate his game. If he cannot outperform expectations, Anaheim’s margin for error disappears quickly.
For the Ducks to win, they must lean into their identity. They need to create chaos, generate volume, and avoid extended defensive-zone time against Edmonton’s top unit.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Beckett Sennecke with 13:07 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by John Carlson and Jackson LaCombe.Edmonton: 3Anaheim: 1#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-28T21:51:01.674119Z
Edmonton Oilers Storylines
Edmonton enters this series with a clear advantage in top-end talent. Connor McDavid continues to drive play at an elite level, and the potential return of Leon Draisaitl adds another layer of offensive dominance. However, Leon Draisaitl is listed as day to day and remains uncertain for Game 1, though he is trending toward a return and could suit up as early as the opener, which would significantly boost Edmonton’s offensive ceiling.
Meanwhile, the Oilers’ evolution into a more balanced team stands out. They still produce offence at a high level, but their defensive structure and depth have improved. Additions like Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy have helped stabilize their play away from the puck.
Furthermore, Edmonton’s power play remains a decisive weapon. Ranking among the league’s best, it presents a major challenge for an Anaheim penalty kill that struggled throughout the season.
In goal, Connor Ingram has provided steadier recent performances than his Anaheim counterpart. While not elite, his consistency gives Edmonton a reliable baseline.
Ultimately, the Oilers do not need to match Anaheim’s pace. They can control the game, capitalize on mistakes, and let their stars dictate key moments.
Edmonton goal!Scored by Jack Roslovic with 15:01 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard.Edmonton: 2Anaheim: 0#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-28T21:41:39.706007Z
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
The in-house model leans toward Edmonton, driven by stronger finishing profiles and a significant special teams advantage. Meanwhile, MoneyPuck places the Oilers at approximately 60 percent for Game 1. HockeyStats aligns with that view, projecting an Edmonton edge with a slightly higher expected goal output, largely influenced by their power play efficiency.
After removing market vig from the -180 range and blending all inputs, Edmonton lands between 59 and 61 percent. Fair odds project closer to -145 to -150, suggesting the market is slightly inflated but directionally correct.
Ultimately, the model indicates that while Anaheim is capable of winning, Edmonton controls the matchup more often than not.
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction
Edmonton controls the structure of this game, but Anaheim’s path to victory is straightforward. If the Ducks can turn this into a high-event contest and get timely saves, they can steal Game 1. However, that requires near-perfect execution in key moments.
Meanwhile, Edmonton’s edge in special teams and star power is difficult to ignore. Over a full game, those advantages tend to surface.
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers win 4-2 (Model Probability: ~60%)
2025–26 Regular Season Prediction Record: 17–19
Prop Bets of the Night
The safest angle in this matchup comes from Anaheim’s shot generation. Leo Carlsson over 2.5 shots remains a strong play, given his consistent volume and role in driving offence. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid to record two or more points is a logical correlation play, as he will be heavily involved if Edmonton controls the game.
Additionally, Troy Terry to record a point offers value in a high-event environment where Anaheim should still generate chances. Finally, a slightly more aggressive look is Edmonton’s power play to score, given the Ducks’ penalty kill struggles and the Oilers’ elite efficiency.
2025–26 Regular Season Betting Record: 44–35 (+10.99 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Please bet responsibly.
Main photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
