Welcome back to Olympic hockey predictions here at Last Word On Hockey, where we will be covering the men’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics each day throughout the preliminary round and beyond. As the best players in the world return to the Olympic stage, every early matchup carries weight in a short and unforgiving format. Today’s focus shifts to Group A, where Canada faces France in the final preliminary game for both nations. Be sure to check back daily for continued Olympic men’s hockey coverage, analysis, and predictions throughout these Winter Olympic Games from Italy.
Olympic Hockey Predictions featuring Canada vs France in Group A Action
Date & Time: Sunday, February 15, 10:40 a.m. Eastern Standard Time
How to Watch US TV: USA, Peacock | Canada TV: CBC, CBC Gem, RDS2
Venue: Santagiulia Arena in Milan, Italy
Setting the Stage
Canada has already clinched Group A and secured a bye into the quarterfinals of the Olympic tournament. The Canadians opened with a 5–0 win over Czechia and followed with a 5–1 victory against Switzerland. Meanwhile, France enters 0–2 after losses to Switzerland, and Czechia, but has competed with heart. Seeding still matters for Canada, with projections giving them an 86 percent chance to finish as the number one overall seed. France, on the other hand, is playing for pride and development. In short tournament formats, even games with heavy favourites influence bracket paths and medal probabilities.
Canada Storyline
Canada has gone nuclear offensively. Head coach Jon Cooper united Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini on one line against Switzerland. The trio combined for three goals and eight points in a 5–1 win. McDavid now has six points in two games. MacKinnon and Celebrini have scored in both contests. Additionally, Canada’s depth remains overwhelming, with Sidney Crosby, Mitch Marner, and Cale Makar driving secondary threats. Logan Thompson has provided steady goaltending. However, Josh Morrissey is unavailable, with Travis Sanheim stepping in. Canada’s blend of speed, skill, and structure makes them the clear tournament favourite.
France Storyline
France understands the challenge ahead. Captain Pierre-Edouard Bellemare openly acknowledged the talent gap between the two rosters. France lost 4–0 to Switzerland and 6–3 to Czechia but showed resilience, even briefly leading the Czechs (3-2) in the second period. For France, the fact that Alexandre Texier is the only NHL player on the roster, means they lack the skill to compete with Canada. France’s identity centres on work rate, defensive structure, and earning respect, at the international level. If they can limit turnovers and manage the neutral zone, they may keep the game structured early. However, sustaining pressure against Canada’s elite forwards will be difficult. They play a hard-on-the-puck game, but lacking skill, as you’d expect, they can’t always keep up. It’s a double whammy against the uber-skilled Canadian offensive attack.
Prediction Inputs
Projection models overwhelmingly favour Canada. HockeyStats gives Canada a 97 percent win probability with projected goals of 7.4 to 2.0. The Athletic model pushes that number to 99 percent, forecasting a 6.5 to 1.1 scoreline. Sportsbooks mirror those expectations, pricing Canada at -20000 on the moneyline and -6.5 on the puck line. The total sits at 7.5 goals. Canada’s top players lead the NHL in scoring and WAR metrics, while France’s roster features only one NHL skater. Talent disparity is significant across every position.
Olympic Hockey Prediction
Canada’s speed and finishing ability should create separation by the second period. France will compete, but sustained defensive zone time will eventually tilt the ice decisively.
Prediction: Canada wins 8–0
Best Bets
Canada -6.5 (-110) is a solid idea given model projections cluster around six or more goals of separation. Canada’s offensive ceiling also supports the spread. Macklin Celebrini (-120) as an anytime goal scorer is intriguing. How can it not be with him on a line with McDavid and Mackinnon? That line continues to drive the offence.
Lineup Disclaimer: Projected line combinations and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please verify official lineups prior to placing any wagers.
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Main photo credit: Mike Segar/Reuters via Imagn Images
