Welcome to Last Word On Hockey’s Olympic Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at Team Finland taking on Team Sweden. Don’t forget to check out more Olympic Predictions, as our writers will continue this series throughout the Olympics, right up to the Gold Medal Game.
2026 Olympics Hockey Predictions with Finland and Sweden
International Head-to-Head Record: Sweden has a 25-12-2 record plus five ties against Finland since 1976.
Time: 6:10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST), 3:10 a.m. Pacific
How to Watch: In Canada: SN, CBC, CBC Gem, TSN
In the United States: USA Network, Peacock
Location: Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy.
This past Wednesday featured two scintillating games in Group B, with Slovakia getting an upset victory over Finland, and Sweden winning in nerve-wracking fashion over Italy. Will we get more of the same with today’s Group B action? The two most prominent teams of the group face-off in a rivalry that has spanned decades. You could call it the Nordic form of the Canada-USA rivalry, with how deep it is. Finland is 0-1 in the preliminary round, with 0 points, while Sweden is 1-0 in the preliminary round, with 3 points.
The Finnish Story with 2025 IIHF World Ranking at Sixth
Some additional information for Team Finaland can be found in the links contained within for their roster and projected lines.
Coming off a crushing 4-1 defeat at the hands of Slovakia on Wednesday, this is basically a must-win game for Finland. The 2022 Olympic winners were stifled by Slovak goaltender Samuel Hlavaj, who stopped 39 out of 40 shots on Wednesday. Eeli Tolvanen recorded the only goal.
Captain Mikael Granlund said postgame on Wednesday that there is no panic in the locker room, as the “most important games are ahead of us”. While that holds true, the margin of error is as slim as it can be.
The 2025 IIHF Fourth Ranked Swedish Side’s Story
Again, further information on Sweden’s current status can be contained in the links. We have their roster and projected lines included in them.
The Swedes survived a scare against Italy on Wednesday, ultimately winning 5-2. The score was close to the very end, despite the shots being 60-22 in favour of Sweden. Victor Hedman and captain Gabriel Landeskog chalked their performance up to nerves and a bit of rust, and gave props to Italian netminder Damian Clara for his outstanding performance.
There were some questionable lineup decisions from the Swedes on Wednesday, such as Filip Forsberg only playing one shift in the entire game. Given his proven offensive ability, it would favour Sweden to play him more. Oliver Ekman-Larsson dressed for the game as the seventh defenceman, but did not play a single shift. It could be due to Sweden’s staff looking to manage the workload for some players, but against such a rival in Finland, things should change.
Starting Goalies
Below are the projected starters for tonight’s game. Please check social media for the most updated information before making any player prop bets.
Finland will likely start Juuse Saros for a second consecutive game. In 44 NHL games this season with the Nashville Predators, he has a 21-17-5 record, a 3.20 goals-against average, and an .892 save percentage. He stopped 21 out of 24 shots in Wednesday’s 4-1 loss against Slovakia. It is possible Finland could pivot to Kevin Lankinen in net as they did at the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament, but in a high-stakes game such as this, would they make such a decision?
Based on practice on Thursday, Jacob Markström looks to be the starter for this game, marking a change from Filip Gustavsson. Markstrom has had a rough season with the New Jersey Devils so far. In 30 games, he has a 15-13-1 record, a 3.20 goals-against average, and an .882 save percentage. This will be his first Olympic appearance in his career, but it is not his first taste of international play by any stretch. He played in the IIHF World Championships in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, winning gold for Sweden in 2013.
Prediction and Best Bets
This one is tough. Finland needs to win this game and will likely play with a high level of urgency. Sweden has a win under their belt, but would love to win this rivalry game. Sweden’s team looks better on paper, and we predict they will edge Finland out in this one.
Prediction: Sweden wins 4-3.
Best Bets
To wrap things up, here are our anytime goal scorer picks. For Finland, we will pick Mikko Rantanen to score a goal. On the Swedish side, we will pick Adrian Kempe to pot one.
Now, please check out the next page of this article for predictions for Italy vs Slovakia.
Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
