Welcome to Last Word On Hockey’s Olympic Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at Team Sweden taking on the hosts of the Olympics, Team Italy. Don’t forget to check out more Olympic Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the Olympics.
Olympic Predictions: Sweden vs Italy
International Head-to-Head Record: Sweden is 11-0-3 versus Italy, in 14 games since 1992
Time: 3:10 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST), 12:10 p.m. Pacific
How to Watch: In Canada: SN, CBC, CBC Gem, TSN
In the United States: USA Network, Peacock
Location: Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy
The first day of the 2026 men’s Olympic hockey tournament features a matchup between Sweden and the host team, Italy. Sweden is a team that has consistently performed well on the international stage, making the semifinals at the last IIHF World Championships, as well as the 2022 Olympics. Italy comes into this tournament as the biggest underdog, with no players with NHL experience. Sweden has never lost to Italy in international play.
The Swedish Story
2025 IIHF World Ranking: 4th
Additional Team Sweden Information:
The Swedes, although not the favourites in the Olympic tournament, are a definite powerhouse hockey country. Led by the much-respected veteran Gabriel Landeskog as the captain, they look for another strong Olympic run. The pressure is on for Sweden to produce results on the international stage, as their last Olympic Gold Medal was in the 2006 Turin Olympics. Can the Swedes strike gold and prevail once again in Italy?
Sweden has the disadvantage of having no established superstar in their ranks, but the advantage of having great depth. Forwards to watch include the much-discussed William Nylander, who has battled through injuries to return for the Olympics, as well as Lucas Raymond, who leads all Swedish players in NHL points this season. They will be glad to have Victor Hedman return from injury in time for the Olympics, as his defensive stability and offensive contribution from the blue line will be critical to Sweden’s success.
The Italian Story
2025 IIHF World Ranking: 18th
Additional Team Italy Information:
The Italians are a rather unknown bunch. With no players who have NHL experience, they are undoubtedly at a significant disadvantage coming into the Olympics. The goal should be to give the Italian crowd something to cheer about every game. This is their first Olympic hockey appearance since 2006, when Italy also hosted the Winter Olympics in Turin.
Players to watch include the two who were drafted into the NHL. They include the young Anaheim Ducks goaltender prospect Damian Clara (drafted 60th overall in 2023), as well as defenceman Thomas Larkin (drafted 137th overall in 2009 by the Columbus Blue Jackets). If there is any hope of keeping the puck out of the net on the Italian side, these two players will likely play a great role in that.
Starting Goalies
Below are the projected starters for tonight’s game. Please check social media for the most updated information before making any player prop bets.
Sweden will likely lead off the Olympics with Filip Gustavsson in net. In 36 NHL games this season with the Minnesota Wild, he has a 20-9-6 record, a 2.64 goals-against average, and a .907 save percentage. His last international appearances include the 2024 IIHF World Championships, where Sweden achieved third place, and the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.
Italy will likely start the aforementioned Ducks prospect Damian Clara. In 30 SHL games this season with Brynäs IF, he has a 16-13-0 record, a 2.49 goals-against average, and an .888 save percentage. This Olympic experience will be the first international appearance for Clara above Division 1A of the IIHF World Championships. Talk about an experience of a lifetime for the 21-year-old goaltender.
Prediction and Best Bets
This should be a relatively easy outcome to predict, but you have to question how much energy Team Sweden will exert in a game where it is almost certain they will win. After all, there is still the big rivalry game against Finland in the group stage on Friday. Nonetheless, this should not be a close game. If Italy can somehow keep it competitive, the fans will be over the moon.
Prediction: Sweden wins 7-1.
Best Bets
To wrap things up, here are our anytime goal scorer picks. For Sweden, we will pick Lucas Raymond, the leading Swedish scorer in the NHL this season. On the Italian side, we will pick the only skater with NHL experience, Thomas Larkin, to score a goal.
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Main Photo Credit: Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters via Imagn Images
