Game 6, the Battle of Ontario, this is the kind of rivalry the fans want. Welcome back to NHL Predictions from us at Last Word on Hockey. Today, we bring you our analysis of Game 6 of the first-round 2025 Eastern Conference NHL Stanley Cup Playoff series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators. With the game in Ottawa, you’d have to think they get the slight edge. So, let’s dig in and see if we can find the forest through the leaves.
NHL Predictions With the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Ottawa Senators from the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata, Ontario
TV: Sportsnet, CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, TVA Sports, TBS, MAX
7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Eastern Conference Round One Playoff Series: Toronto 3 – Ottawa 2.
Let’s be honest, the Maple Leafs and their fanbase, are reeling. They need to listen to head coach Craig Berube and let what got them here push them through to the second round. On the other hand, for Ottawa, they really are playing with house money. Tim Stutzle coming up with three points in an elimination game, he’s going out there and making history.
One thing about these two teams, is that it has been a very even series. If you cancel out the three overtime games, the other two saw a four-goal differential with each team taking one of those convincing victories. Even the leading scorers for each of their respective teams are close. Mitch Marner leads the series with seven points through five games. Meanwhile, the Sens captain Brady Tkachuk isn’t far behind with six. So, just how can we decide a winner of Game 6?
Looking at the Leafs Perspective in Game 6 Still Up 3-2
One surprise is whether or not David Kampf draws into the lineup. He is a very effective, bottom-six type player for the Leafs, or anyone for that matter. In any case, the Leafs have lots of roster options. Along with Kampf, guys like Max Pacioretty or Nicholas Robertson could just as easily be in or out of the lineup. It comes down to a matchup game. So, with the Sens having the advantage of last change, you know Berube needs to be at his most diabolical and tactical to prevail.
Chris Tanev. pic.twitter.com/CO2iGEbjxw
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 29, 2025
The other question in our NHL Predictions circulating in the Six is whether Berube makes a change in between the pipes. Joseph Woll very well might be the answer if Anthony Stolarz is showing signs of fatigue. Woll played 42 games for the Leafs in 2024-25, posting a .909 save percentage. Maybe the Leafs need that rhythm to help balance out their roster.
The Ottawa Senators Have the Last Laugh at Home
The last change against the Leafs will be advantageous. For the Sens in Game 6, they just need to go with it. They won two in a row, they’re at home, let’s go. Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Fabian Zetterlund, these guys are proving they are gamers. They are doing so at the most important time of the year. As an example, Cozens’ shorthanded goal on Tuesday evening was a huge game changer. The Sens have the pieces in place to compete, night-in, night-out.
We still like the Leafs to ultimately win the series. They have two games, and just say the odds were 50/50 each game. That means that the Leafs have a 75% chance of being triumphant. In addition, we don’t believe the moneyline has shown the Leafs to be underdog in any one game, although Game 6 might just be the exception. So, even at 55/45 odds, that 75% bumps up to…well nearly 80%. Point is, the odds are forever in the Leafs favour, you know in 2025, round one, versus the Senators.
One last item that could ultimately turn the tide in the series is goaltending. Linus Ullmark essentially stole Game 5 with his 27-save shutout. Moreover, Ullmark sports an .883 SV% in the series. This is compared against Anthony Stolarz and his .899 SV%. It just goes to show how tight this series truly is so far. Neither the Sens nor the Leafs, and their skilled superstars, are overshooting. They are looking for high-danger, quality scoring opportunities before letting rubber fly. If it weren’t for all those huge saves throughout the series by both goalies, but in particular Ullmark, this series could have easily gone to the shooters. However, the goalies have helped keep it tight. That said, there is chatter of going with Woll. On gameday for Game 6, the Leafs starting netminder is a storyline.
NHL Predictions Sens and Leafs Game 6
You may recall from our Game 5 predictions, that we picked the Leafs. In contrast, we added the caveat that we did think the Sens chances were increasing as the series progressed. So, to hold true, we are taking Ottawa in Game 6. Home ice, riding the momentum of a convincing 4-0 victory, there’s plenty of reason for them to believe. The Leafs have to play a full 60-minutes (or longer in the case of overtime). Their superstars are so talented, they get chances. Sometimes, it is just whether or not those chances go in.
Game 6 Final Score Prediction: Ottawa 4 – Toronto 2.
In terms of a parlay, check out these possibilities. The moneyline actually has Ottawa slightly favoured at this time. Based on our score, you could take them to cover. Throw on Marner and Stutzle to record just a point, and tack on Tkachuk as an anytime scorer, you’re nearly at +1K. Know what we’re saying?
Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions, some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Main Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
