Today’s NHL Predictions features a cross-conference matchup. We will look at Tampa Bay Lightning (36-25-6) predictions, as they take on the Vegas Golden Knights (36-24-7). On Saturday night, the Lightning won the Battle of Florida by the skin of their teeth against the Florida Panthers by a score of 5-3. The Lightning jumped out to a four-goal lead by the second period, but the Panthers cut the deficit to one late in the third. Moreover, Steven Stamkos recorded two goals and an assist in the win, while Andrei Vasilevskiy made 47 saves on 50 shots.
On the other side of this matchup, the Golden Knights stacked their roster with ambitions of defending their 2023 Stanley Cup title. Management was busy in Las Vegas at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring two stars in Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin. Furthermore, the Knights added depth in a trade for Anthony Mantha. Despite all their injuries, we expect Vegas to secure a playoff spot and make a solid run again this postseason.
Last week, Tampa Bay boosted their playoff odds tremendously in a tight Eastern Conference Wild Card race. They did so with two wins and four points against the top-ranked teams in the standings. Recent acquisition Anthony Duclair is now on the first line alongside two superstars in Tampa Bay. The 28-year-old has a three-game point streak with the Lightning since joining the roster. With that, here are three keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Find High-Danger Passes on Offence
The Golden Knights are a sound defensive team historically. However, their defensive play remains average at 5v5 this season. Vegas allows 2.55 expected goals against per hour (2.55 xGA/60), which ranks 15th in the league. Furthermore, the team allows 3.731 high-danger passes per 60, according to hand-tracked microstats via All Three Zones. Now, looking at our microstats workbook for the Lightning here at Last Word, Tampa Bay controls the passing department relatively well compared to their opponents at 5v5.
In five recently tracked games, the Lightning completed 22 passes to the slot while surrendering only 14. In other words, Tampa Bay controls 61.11% of the slot passes at 5v5 (SLTP%). Nikita Kucherov leads the team with ten high-danger passes to the slot. In addition, the Bolts had 12 cross-slot passes compared to their opponent’s nine, controlling 57.14% of the cross-slot passes (CSP%). The Lightning must continue to look for high-danger plays against the Golden Knights.
Disrupt Vegas in Transition
Despite playing average defence, the Golden Knights are still a high-flying team in transition. Microstats from All Three Zones show Vegas is efficient and clean on their retrievals and zone exits. The Golden Knights are above league average in retrievals, zone exits, and exits with possession per hour this season. The best way to shut down puck-moving defencemen in transition is to disrupt plays on the forecheck. Luckily, the Lightning are a solid forechecking team. Their 23.04 forecheck pressures per hour rank second in the NHL behind the Panthers.
Jon Cooper’s roster offers a unique dynamic with the decision-making by the forwards on zone entries. The top players like Brayden Point and Kucherov are zone entry machines, while the middle-six prefers to dump the puck and retrieve via the forecheck. Players like Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Tyler Motte will be difference makers in this matchup, as these three have the highest retrieval percentage, according to our microstats workbook here at Last Word. Tampa Bay must block passing lanes and disrupt the Vegas defenders in transition to prevent them from charging up the ice with speed.
Another Dominant Performance From The “Big Cat”
Goaltending is a weakness of the Lightning this season. With Vasilevskiy out for the first two months of the season, Jonas Johansson filled in and kept Tampa Bay competitive for a playoff spot. However, Vasilevskiy’s injury has taken a toll on his body. Vasilevskiy has posted a -2.1 goals saved above expected (-2.1 GSAx) in all situations this season via MoneyPuck’s model, which ranks 62nd amongst goaltenders. In the previous game, Vasilevskiy recorded 1.71 goals saved above expected (1.71 GSAx) and played at an elite level. If the Lightning can receive elite goaltending from the former Vezina Trophy Winner come playoff time, this team may be able to steal a playoff series or two. Vasilevskiy will be tested and must come up big against the Golden Knights.
Prediction Time
The last time these two clubs clashed, the Lightning won in a thriller at Amalie Arena by a score of 5-4. With all their new acquisitions and current position in the standings, Vegas will be hungry to get revenge on the Lightning. Now that Vasilevskiy is at the top of his game, we believe he will continue his dominant play heading into the playoffs.
On a side note, we will continue to expand the microstats workbook and share findings via articles. Additionally, the data has complimented our predictions for the Tampa Bay Lightning articles fabulously. We believe the Lightning will grab two points against the surging Golden Knights.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 6-3
Microstats via LastWordOnSports (Jack Pallotta and Kyle Pereira)
Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & MoneyPuck
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
