The Vancouver Canucks expectations for 2023-24 are pretty sedate. “Make the playoffs”, “sign the player”, and “improve the penalty kill” are mentioned and that’s about it. *YAWN* Let’s spice things up a little, shall we?
Shaking Up Canucks Expectations
The trick, of course, is not to just say that the Vancouver Canucks will win the Stanley Cup this season. That’s pushing into the realm of fantasy and, frankly, nobody should listen to you unless you’re including elves.
What we want to do here, is take an expectation – not just a hope, but a claim – and give it a push. It needs to be a bit unexceptional, but also a whole lot of “I’m not taking that bet.” For added fun, let’s make them related.
About That Finish
Yep, we know it. “We expect to finish in the playoffs” is a repeated mantra here on the coast. Not just a public relations pledge, but the primary driver behind many of the worst trades and free-agent signings in Canucks history.
Canucks Expectations
The Canucks should be in competition this season. No, really. They improved their back end with sensible, low-risk moves. They have balanced out their bottom six up front. Scoring is still in place for the most part, even if the team loses one of their wingers.
Oh, and Thatcher Demko. ‘Nuff said.
On the other hand, their division had four 100+ point teams last year and one of them wasn’t the Calgary Flames. So they really are in hard to make the playoffs, but not to an impossible degree. Missing them shouldn’t surprise anyone, especially if it’s close.
The Inexplicable
It’s not close.
Let’s say Demko is injured again. The team, expecting to have Tanner Pearson and Ilya Mikheyev back in the fold, deal away a couple scoring wingers. Then Pearson and Mikheyev aren’t, in fact, recovered. Oops!
The forward group, young and old, have a difficult time getting their goals in coach Rick Tocchet‘s system. The all-new defence just isn’t jelling as hoped
A bad start on the road brings the team home with a 1-5 record. Panic sets in, and none of Spencer Martin, Arturs Silovs, or Seasoned Veteran Goalie To Be Signed Later can stop it.
Even if special teams make it to average, most of the game is played at even strength. If that’s when your team is weakest, it’s game over. Add the ominous thought of an all-star leaving, and it will make for an interesting Winter.
But at least one group of fans – the ones demanding a rebuild – might be happy.
Did Someone Say “Special Teams”?
There’s both good and bad news for the Canucks expectations for their special teams. On the one hand, a LOT of focus has gone into shoring up the penalty killing by seeking out very specific free agents. On the other, Bo Horvat.
Canucks Expectations
Well, okay, there’s no Horvat to pop in 11 power-play goals in 49 games this time around. That hurts a little, not gonna lie. But Vancouver has a lot of offensive talent on the roster. While the power play isn’t exactly Filip Hronek‘s bread-and-butter, he handles the puck well enough.
Seeing the power play slip down to average would be a little disappointing. Seeing the penalty kill reach those heights, though, would be a charm. Yes, just getting to the median would mean* the world to the team’s chances at the playoffs.
The Canucks did score a league-high 15 short-handed goals last year, so that was fun. Don’t expect it again, though, as the roles will likely be taken over by PK specialists instead of J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. Modesty is our friend, here.
The Inexplicable
Really? Modesty? Is THAT all you have to offer your long-suffering fans?!? Heck, no!
Not only does the revamped power play keep their top-ten spot, but the penalty kill surpasses them. Hronek is the perfect addition on the blue line along with Ian Cole and Carson Soucy. Pius Suter and Teddy Blueger stabilize the forward spots. And Demko, well, Demko just is.
For the sake of modesty, there’s less emphasis on scoring shorties and more on actual kills. So let’s say the Canucks only get 10 goals from their killers. That’s mostly going to be from Miller or Pettersson going out there when there’s just 15-20 seconds left, but it counts!
Getting both special teams into the top ten league-wide would make reaching the playoffs much easier. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a good marker of a successful team.
Special Team, Special Player
There’s very little about the Vancouver Canucks expectations and activity that won’t be the talk of the town this year. But then, that’s true of every year. However, there is one subject that will dominate all conversation until definitive action is taken.
Canucks Expectations
This one’s actually a bit hard to call. So much of what Elias Pettersson decides to do with his next contract can only be answered with “that depends” right now. It’s hard to ignore the elephant named Auston Matthews crashing through the room with his new deal, too.
The Matthews deal does provide something of a template for young players. Instead of going for as much money as he could and signing an eight-year contract, Matthews puts pressure on the Toronto Maple Leafs to show that they deserve him.
Matthews will be just 30 years old when this contract expires, giving him one more shot at a major deal. The same could easily happen for the one-year-younger Pettersson.
Given the effort that management has put into correcting past mistakes and avoiding the usual pitfalls, odds are they’ll improve. The improvement may be modest but should be enough to get a new deal done. What it looks like can vary widely, though.
It won’t equal Matthews’ numbers because Pettersson hasn’t hit Matthews’ numbers on the ice yet. But he means at least as much to Vancouver as Matthews does to Toronto.
With a great start for him and the team, a four- or five-year deal worth around $12 million per is reasonable. Hat tip, as ever, to CapFriendly here.
The Inexplicable
If, on the other hand, both he and the team crash and burn? That could be the end of their relationship. That ominous thought we mentioned earlier? Yeah, it becomes reality and he pushes his way off the team.
He’ll do it in a quiet, understated way because he’s a Swede and a polite young man. But he’ll still ask to be pointed to the exit, and there’s no way that has a happy ending for Vancouver.
The most likely scenario is they go all the way to qualifying him next year. Now, he’s arbitration-eligible next year, so there’s simply no way he’ll take the $8.82 million qualifier. He remains a restricted free agent if he does get a one-year deal, so the team may like it but he won’t.
The Canucks expectations for any return in an Elias Pettersson trade will be through the roof, and for good reason. On the other hand, there isn’t a team in the league that won’t have an interest.
Never mind the Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout, THIS would be the biggest deal in Vancouver Canucks history. And no one who’s a fan of the team wants to see it happen.
*ahem
Main Photo: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
