Things are happening across the league. Managers are being hired, and coaches have new locations. Not to mention, trades have been made. Seeing familiar faces in new places is typical this time of the year. However, so is seeing that familiar face remains in the same place. When building your team, you implement vital pieces to help shape it. That can be said for the New York Rangers. For a team littered with veterans, the young players turn to take the keys. One of those players is Alexis Lafreniere. As discussed with K’Andre Miller, here is what a projected Alexis Lafreniere contract looks like.
Projecting The Alexis Lafreniere Contract
Why He Is Worth The Pay
The New York Rangers struck lightning in a bottle when they selected Alexis Lafreniere. Winning the draft lottery for the 2020 NHL Draft, the team added a top draft selection for young promising talent. While that is great in the grand scheme of things, Lafreniere has not lived up to the billing. Not every first-overall draft pick hits the ground running like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. It takes time. Look at Jack Hughes, for instance. Hughes was not lighting the hockey world on fire right away. However, Hughes has developed exceptionally well and had a career year this season. New York is hoping for the same with their first overall selection.
ZERO HESITATION. ALEXIS LAFRENIERE. pic.twitter.com/R1u4yADQPA
— New York Rangers (@NYRangers) April 2, 2023
The potential for Lafreniere is there. He has immense talent and utilizes his skill.
Projected Contract
Here is where the Alexis Lafreniere projected contract comes into play. The true comparable for this contract is his linemate Kaapo Kakko. Kakko was the second overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft and, like Lafreniere, has not lived up to the billing. When it was time to sign a new contract, he received a two-year bridge deal. The comparison is based on their draft selection and similar situation with the club.
When Kaapo Kakko signed his two-year bridge deal in the summer of 2022, he was coming off a season where he scored seven goals, 11 assists, and 18 points. It was highly disappointing for the young winger, and only in 43 games played. However, things turned a corner for Kakko. When things came to Lafreniere in his contract year, he scored 16 goals, 23 assists, and 39 points. His assists and points were a career-high for him. In addition, of his 47 career goals, 44 are at even strength. His 44 even-strength goals place him fifth among all players since 2020.
Alexis Lafreniere with a beauty!! Rangers come back and score 2 unanswered to tie it! pic.twitter.com/eL6be8zc7x
— Rangers on MSG (@RangersMSGN) March 25, 2023
This is where the comparison tips the scales in favour of Lafreniere. To justify: here is a comparison of the two players in specific categories in their contract years:
- Expected Goals: Kakko: 8.5 Lafreniere: 16.3
- Goals Above Expected: Kakko: -1 Lafreniere: -0.3
- Corsi: Kakko: 52% Lafreniere: 55%
- Fenwick: Kakko: 53% Lafreniere: 54%
- Expected Goals Against: Kakko: 27.44 Lafreniere: 51.4
The sample size of games was larger for Lafreniere, but he was still a more impactful player. His ability to generate goals was far superior to Kakko’s. In addition, Lafreniere did a better job of firing pucks on the net while also getting the puck through traffic. His increased ice time saw increased production, and he had a career year. Lafreniere scored right at his expected rate, and Drury saw what the forward could do.
The room for optimism is there. A year after Kakko signed his contract, Kakko had a career year for the Rangers. The hope is that Lafreniere can build off this career season from now on.
Projected Contract: Three years; $3 million per season.
Reality Of The Contract Situation
The reality of the Alexis Lafreniere contract is simple. Much like with Miller, there is little cap space to go around. In addition, Miller has warranted more attention to secure long-term. Whether that is, remains to be seen.
"I want to play in the top 6. That's my goal."
– Alexis Lafrenière pic.twitter.com/TIWYTT9ahe
— Rangers Videos (@SNYRangers) June 13, 2022
Lafreniere is a fine player and has shown growth in his game. He has spoken out and wants to play in the top six. Increased roles and opportunities would do wonders for his development. However, he has not lived up to the billing to land a luxurious long-term contract. Like his linemate Kaapo Kakko, signing a bridge deal makes the most sense. New head coach Peter Laviolette has big plans for the younger guys. This is the chance for Lafreniere to bet on himself and show that his game is developing further.
Main Photo: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
