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NHL Stanley Cup Final: Best Odds, Predictions, Awards Preview

Stanley Cup Playoffs-Vegas Golden Knights Florida Panthers

The 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs reaches its pinnacle this Saturday, June 3rd, as the Vegas Golden Knights take on the Florida Panthers in a best-of-7 series to decide who will win the Stanley Cup. This series also sets up both franchises to make history; with the winner taking home their first Stanley Cup in team history.

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How They Got Here: Vegas Golden Knights

The Vegas Golden Knights almost did the unthinkable back in the Spring of 2018, when they went to the Stanley Cup Finals in their inaugural season. Despite losing to the Washington Capitals in five games, they quickly cemented themselves as a power in the National Hockey League upon entry. Five years and three head coaches later, and they are back playing for the “Greatest Trophy in Sports”.

The Vegas Golden Knights came into the season with +1900 odds (DraftKings) to win the Stanley Cup. They quickly got rolling and never looked back. Led by first year head coach and 2019-20 Jack Adams Coach of the Year Award Winner Bruce Cassidy, the Golden Knights finished first in the Western Conference with a franchise record 111 points.

In Round One of the Playoffs, Vegas found themselves down 1-0 early in their series against the Winnipeg Jets. That was before they rattled off four straight wins including a Game Three overtime winner by forward Michael Amadio.

In Round Two the Knights found themselves in a slugfest when they took on MVP Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. A back-and-forth series saw both teams split the first four games. It was the pivotal Game Five on Vegas’s home ice where they took a 3-2 series lead, and subsequently finished it up with a 5-2 trouncing in Edmonton to win the series. Along the way they were led by veteran forward Jonathan Marchessault, who scored a hat-trick to seal the series in Game Six.

Most recently, the Golden Knights took on the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Finals, in a matchup against their former Head Coach Pete Deboer. Despite going to a Game Six, Vegas never seemed to be in any danger, winning the decisive game 6-0.

After five years of chasing down this opportunity again, Vegas gets their chance to win it all, this time against a pesky Florida Panthers team.

How They Got Here: Florida Panthers

If someone told you this time last year that the Florida Panthers would be in the Stanley Cup finals it would make a ton of sense. They came into the season with the second best odds to win the Cup at +850 (DraftKings). However, this has become an underdog story for the ages. One that is eerily similar to the 2012 Los Angeles Kings team that went on the win the Stanley Cup.

Last offseason Florida made two seismic moves within the organization. They hired the highly regarded Paul Maurice to be their new Head Coach. In addition, made a blockbuster trade for superstar Forward Matthew Tkachuk. Despite the major acquisitions, Florida found themselves on the outside looking in for most of the season. That is until a late push saw them sneak into the final Wild Card spot with 92 points, a -30 point differential compared to their 2021-22 season.

Their reward for sneaking into the playoffs was playing the Boston Bruins. A team who just so happened to have historically the best regular season in NHL history with 135 points and 65 wins. A valiant effort saw them steal Game Two on the road, but Boston being the juggernaut they are, brought the Panthers to the brink of elimination going up 3-1 in the series. A switch flipped after an overtime goal gave the Panthers life in the series, and a Game Five win. Florida proceeded to do the unthinkable; winning Game Six at home, followed up by a winner-take-all Game Seven in Boston. It was there when Forward Carter Verhaeghe scored the series clinching goal to complete one of the biggest upsets in not just NHL, but in team sport history.

In Round Two the Panthers took on the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team who just accomplished history of their own, snapping a 19 year playoff series win drought. However, it was a series of relative ease for Florida as their size and strength was too much for Toronto to overcome. As were the two overtime winners; a Game Three goal scored by Forward Sam Reinhart and the series clinching goal in Game Five by Forward Nick Cousins.

The Eastern Conference Finals against the Carolina Hurricanes proved to be the easiest test of them all, sweeping the series 4-0. A quadruple overtime winner in Game One and series clinching goal with four seconds remaining scored by Matthew Tkachuk in Game Four has propelled Florida to an improbable appearance in the Stanley Cups Final.

Florida is returning to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 1996, this time led by the American phenom Tkachuk and former Vezina winning Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.

Finals Analysis and Prediction

Coming into these Playoffs both Florida and Vegas have defied expectations, but for different reasons. Florida was a preseason darling to win the Cup, but an underwhelming regular season saw them scratch and claw their way in. Now they have a chance to right the wrongs of the past and win their first Stanley Cup.

Vegas began the season on the opposite side of the spectrum; looked at as a team that can be competitive, but in need of a retool. Instead, they went on the have the best record in the Western Conference and their second ever Finals appearance.

The Panthers

For Florida to win they’ll need to keep riding the momentum they’ve built over the past month and a half. They are getting historically good performances from Tkachuk and Bobrovsky, and have their roll players firing on all cylinders.

Their forecheck, puck pressure and speed has been a nightmare for everyone they’ve played so far. Coupled with their bend but don’t break demeanor on the defensive end, teams have struggled to score against them.

Where I think this series will be won for Florida is in two places: goaltending and secondary scoring. Bobrovsky has been a brick wall in net for Florida, posting a dominant 2.21GAA and .935SV%. However, his counterpart in net for Vegas, Adin Hill, is the only goalie with better stats then the man they call “Bob”. So for Florida to win, it starts with winning the goaltending battle.

As for the secondary scoring, Florida needs to continue to get that. Their star players in Tkachuk, Verhaege, and Captain Alexander Barkov have led the way. But contributions from players like Forwards Sam Reinhard, Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair, as well as Defenseman Brandon Montour have kept Florida humming offensively. Coach Maurice will continue to lean on his stars for offense, but those aforementioned role players will need to contribute for Florida to have a shot.

The Golden Knights

The Golden Knights have been knocking on the proverbial door of winning the Cup since their inception into the league in 2017-18. Back then they snuck up on everyone on their way to the finals. This time around is different.

Vegas has been culminating high-end talent for years now which has brought them to this point. Their two cornerstones on offense came via trade acquiring their captain Mark Stone, and superstar Center Jack Eichel. On the backend they added former St. Louis Blues captain and Stanley Cup winner Alex Pietrangelo via free agency in 2020.

For Vegas to reach the mountaintop they’ll need to, just like Florida, two things: win the goaltending battle and depth scoring. Sound familiar? It’s because those are the essentials for any team to win the cup.

In Vegas’s instance it is a little different. Bobrovsky is the known commodity. He’s been an elite goalie in this league for a decade. Vegas however, has been rolling with Adin Hill, a career backup/minor league starter. Only in this postseason he has gone nuclear since taking over the net after Laurent Brossoit’s injury. His 2.07GAA and .937SV% better the Florida goalkeeper. It is a tall task to ask Hill to out-duel Bobrovsky on the biggest stage, but for Vegas to have a shot, he’ll need to.

Similar to Florida, Vegas’s secondary scoring will be vital for them to win. Eichel, Stone and Marchessault will continue to provide offense as they have all postseason, but they’ll need contributions from all over to crack Florida’s defense. The Panther’s have endured an onslaught of shots from each team they faced, but time after time have been able to stave them off. Florida has been able to fight Boston’s do-it-all approach on offense, Toronto’s high flying “core four”, and Carolina’s puck pressure, so for Vegas to succeed they will need to be smart, positionally sound, and continue shooting at an NHL leading 12.2%.

Best Bets

Despite the criticisms of two “non-traditional markets” in the Finals this year, this is one of the more fascinating matchups. The oddsmakers have it as a tight one too. Here are a couple of the odds and what your best bet may be. Odds can be found on BetMGM.

Odds to Win the Stanley Cup

Vegas: -130

Florida: +110

The Pick: Florida +110

Why?

This Florida team reminds me so much of the 2012 LA Kings. I also believe they took down two teams with better rosters (Boston, Toronto), and a team with a very sound, structured system (Carolina). It is too close of a matchup to not take plus money.

Conn Smyth Winner

The Pick: Matthew Tkachuk +300

Why?

He’s first in points among active players with 21. He also has multiple overtime winning goals in this postseason, including the series winner in the Eastern Conference Finals. If Florida does win it, it will be between him and Bobrovsky, but Tkachuk has been the heart and soul of this Panthers group.

Top Goal Scorer

The Pick: Jack Eichel +550

Why?

Eichel was desperate to get away from the Buffalo Sabers for this opportunity. He’s Vegas’s leading scorer with 18 points and will need continue to put up points if they want to win. There is usually one player from the losing team that has a huge series, and Eichel is the best bet to do it.

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