How much do Vancouver Canucks fans trust Allvin and Rutherford entering their second offseason? The answer, unsurprisingly, depends on who you ask. A fan base that’s seen almost* everything has more than enough reason to be suspicious.
Let’s look at how justified those suspicions are.
Canucks Fans Want to Trust Allvin
The biggest hazard to the Vancouver Canucks future success – according to Canucks fans – isn’t singular. Ask, and you’ll hear plenty and plenty more answers, ranging from “luck” to “Gary Bettman”. Reality disagrees, but since when have sports been so constrained?
Narrow the options down to actual, plausible reasons and there are a few recurring themes. Ownership pushing for playoff games over long-term strategy is a big one. Bad deals by general managers. Poor scouting and development. An inability to math good and stuff.
There is some justification for considering any of those reasons as the “main” one for years of failure. But the truth is that all of these have been part of the Vancouver Canucks’ unfortunate legacy.
Except perhaps that last: the Canucks have been extremely good at getting every dime out of the salary cap. They exploit loopholes and fill corners like no one’s business. Thing is, with better management, they wouldn’t need to.
Leading up to the NHL entry draft on June 28th, what Canucks fans want most of all is to relax. That the team is in good hands. That there is a plan in place that is achievable and sustainable in the long term. They want, in short, to trust Allvin.
Past Predicting Future
Everyone knows by now that the Canucks aren’t going to rebuild. If General Manager Patrik Allvin’s words aren’t enough, then his actions should be. They’re avoiding saying it, but this isn’t what a rebuild looks like and everyone knows it.
The opportunity to launch a rebuild was there, with the trade of their captain and a change of managers. They decided – or, more likely, had decided for them – that a rebuild wasn’t an option. So it still isn’t.
With this very important factor in mind, what has happened since Allvin’s arrival that should encourage Vancouver Canucks fans? Since making cap space is going to involve some difficult trades, let’s look at Allvin’s deals.
Travis In, Travis Out
The ultimate in mixed messages happened in Patrik Allvin’s first two deals. Somehow, he managed to move Travis Hamonic to the Ottawa Senators, getting the 80th overall pick in return. A pick for a player on a cumbersome contract! Perfect! Great start to a rebuild!
On the same day, the Canucks sent the 79th overall pick to Toronto for Travis Dermott. It was a worthwhile risk, with Dermott never quite finding his space on the Maple Leafs and Vancouver needing help on defence. It also shaved $1.5 million per year off the cap hit.
Alas, Dermott has had an injury-plagued tenure and it’s a question whether he even gets qualified by Vancouver. It was a small gamble that didn’t pay off.
The next day, Vancouver moved out fan favourite – and also injury-ridden – Tyler Motte for a 4th round pick. That ended the Canucks moves for the 2021-22 season and whatever might have been a rebuild.
Money Matters
If fans are looking to trust Allvin to wrestle their cap issues to the ground, there is one pure cap move to point to. Jason Dickinson‘s time in Vancouver was, frankly, a disaster. It was a relief for all concerned when the Chicago Blackhawks took him and his two remaining contract years.
That move cost the Canucks a second-round pick and Riley Stillman‘s two years – though at half the cost of Dickinson. With Stillman flipped to the Sabres for prospect Josh Bloom, the team eventually shed all of Dickinson’s cap hit. Depending on Bloom, they may or may not have a player to show for it.
That’s frankly about as good as a money-removing deal can go. It was essentially their second-round pick for $2.6 million in cap relief for one year and half of that in another. Bloom is a nice bonus throw at the dartboard, even if Stillman was a miss.
Shake Shake
A nightmare start to the season led to their first in-year trade of 2022-23. Trades, really, with two happening on the same day once again.
Getting their first win of the season in eight tries didn’t stop prospects Michael DiPietro and Jonathan Myrenberg from getting shipped to the Boston Bruins for Jack Studnicka. The bottom-line forward has found a spot on the Canucks, but will need to fight to hold it this upcoming season.
The team also moved out a fifth-round draft pick to bring in Ethan Bear and Lane Pederson from Carolina. Bear, of course, is entering contract negotiations after a decent season for a team that needs him. Pederson was lost on waivers after a solid showing and is currently a Group 6 free agent.
So, were these two deals “wins” for Vancouver? The best player of the lot so far has been Bear, and he didn’t quite get to the “good second-pair defenceman” level. The talent – and vacancy – is there for him to do so, but potential doesn’t mean much if he doesn’t reach it.
That minor shake-up, by the by, didn’t save the Canucks’ season.
What, Deadline Again?
Two deals happened close to the deadline day that were surprising and not. The surprise was mentioned already, with Stillman getting moved out for Bloom. Luke Schenn going to Toronto, on the other hand, was absolutely expected.
They can be lumped in with the dart throw that was the Vitali Kravtsov trade and the Curtis Lazar course correction. These combined moves were perfectly decent returns for parts that aren’t in Vancouver’s future.
Big ‘Uns
There are two more deals to look at in Patrik Allvin’s brief career as the Canucks general manager. In both of them, he brought a return that addressed positional needs in Vancouver.
A lot has been said of the Bo Horvat deal, so we’re going to limit our discussion here. The return – a player, pick, and prospect – was good enough given the constraints of time, money, and fit.
Aatu Räty has loads of potential and is still just 20 years old. Anthony Beauvillier has been fine, if a bit expensive for what he brings. The interesting piece was the first-round pick.
That first went to the Detroit Red Wings in a package for Filip Hronek, accompanied by the Canucks’ second-round pick. That’s a whole lot of potential headed out the door for someone who played four games with Vancouver so far.
Of all his deals, this is the one that requires Canucks fans to trust Allvin the most. With just two drafts under this management team’s belt, the pressure is on the judgement of their pro scouts. That and the ability of Allvin to drive a good bargain.
Trust Allvin or Bust
There is certainly potential for Allvin and the Canucks** to make moves in the upcoming draft. They have a good number of mid-round picks which can be combined in deals to move salary or maybe try to recover a second-round pick.
What they do there and in free agency is where the final judgement for 2022-23 will happen. For now, looking at the trades Allvin has made to bring needed players and prospects, is he worth trusting?
So far? Yes.
He’s made a high-value move under tremendous pressure with the Horvat deal. There have been some risky, lower-level trades which were then moved on from (Kravtsov, Stillman) or not (Lazar) as needed.
And there was a big swing bringing in Hronek after being widely lauded for getting a second first-round pick. Patrik Allvin isn’t afraid to make deals but hasn’t been reckless in them, either.
Indeed, his trades seem to be multiple-part maneuvers rather than straightforward “A for B” deals. That’s a bit of a relief, given the added complexity of a hard cap to work around.
It’s worth remembering he’s only been in the position for less than a year and a half. Sixteen months is hardly enough to judge him on, especially given what he started with and the constraints of his job.
But he’s done enough to earn at least some extra time in the driver’s seat before Canucks fans demand access to the wheel.
*53 years and waiting.
**Novelty album forthcoming?
Main Photo: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
